‘In 10 Years, It Will Be Warmer.’ Wanna Bet?

By: Steve Maley (Diary)  |  August 29th at 07:00 AM  | 

Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania is co-author of a paper which was presented to the International Symposium on Forecasting in June. The conclusion: “The paper explained the need for simple methods and conservative forecasts in the face of uncertainty and complexity and pointed out that simple no-change benchmark forecasts are sufficiently accurate for policy decisions. In contrast, simple causal | Read More »