The BP Spill as a Black Swan Event

By: Steve Maley (Diary)  |  July 7th at 04:00 PM  | 

For context in understanding the oil spill, and to help answer the question “How could it possibly be this bad?”, I recommend a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The BP spill is a textbook example of what Taleb calls a Black Swan Event. The event is a surprise (to the observer). The event has a major | Read More »

‘In 10 Years, It Will Be Warmer.’ Wanna Bet?

By: Steve Maley (Diary)  |  August 29th at 07:00 AM  | 

Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania is co-author of a paper which was presented to the International Symposium on Forecasting in June. The conclusion: “The paper explained the need for simple methods and conservative forecasts in the face of uncertainty and complexity and pointed out that simple no-change benchmark forecasts are sufficiently accurate for policy decisions. In contrast, simple causal | Read More »