I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Much of this is ideological. So 35% or so are going to vote Democrat, come hell or high water, even if Obama was proven to be a axe murderer. 35% or so will vote GOP for similar reasons and would vote for the Republican no matter what. That leaves the squishy center to vacillate back and forth. That’s what we’re seeing now. And that’s why we have always said that the indies are the key to the election. The key is what THEY think about things such as government handouts (are they swayed by Democrat giveaways?), taxes, foreign policy, social issues, etc. This is why the only polling that really matters is the independents.

And this election is drilled down to the states. It is quite possible that Romney could win the PV and lose the EV. Campaigning is now down to the micro level where candidates target not just states but key precincts within the states. I read an article where a guy from IL was griping because the candidates were not campaigning there – Romney assumes IL is a lost cause, and Obama treats it as a given. That happens in many states.

The net result of the state-by-state Electoral College consideration and the swing voters is that the popular vote is probably going to always be fairly close but because of the nature of the Electoral College, the EV count could swing wildly.