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TX-21 and the other TX House seats

Good news in Texas on the House front

By: Freedoms Truth (Diary)  |  November 18th, 2008 at 01:11 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

I live in TX-21, Lamar Smith. He was pro-bailout and votes for too many pork barrel spending bills. Otherwise a good conservative Republican Congressman. He didn’t even draw a Democrat challenger this time around. SAFE.

Since that is quite boring, and I have the 2008 Texas election results handy, let’s look at the other TX districts:


* TX -1 Louis Gohmert (R). No Dem challenger, got 188,000 and 87% of vote. SAFE.
* TX -2 Ted Poe (R). No Demo Challenger, got 174,492 and 88% of vote. SAFE.
* TX -3 Sam Johnson (R). Beat Dem challenger 59% to 38% (Libertarian got the rest). SAFE.
* TX-4 Ralph Hall (R). Beat Dem challenger 69% to 30%. SAFE.
* TX-5 Jeb Hensarling (R). No Dem challenger. got 163,000 or 87% of vote. SAFE.
* TX-6 Joe Barton (R). Beat Dem challenger 62% to 36%. SAFE.
* TX-7 John Culberson (R). Beat Dem challenger 55% to 42%. Since Dems made an effort and still lost by double digits, its still SAFE.
* TX-8 Kevin Brady (R) Beat Dem 72% to 25%(!). SAFE.
* TX-9 Al Green (D). NO GOP contender.
* TX-10 Michael McCaul (R). He beat back a serious million-dollar-funded challenge and won 53% to 43%, despite losing by almost 2-to-1 in Travis Co. leaning-to-SAFE.
* TX-11 Mike Conaway (R). No Dem. SAFE.
* TX-12 Kay Granger (R). Won 67%. SAFE.
* TX-13 Mac Thornberry (R). Beat Dem 76% to 22%(!!). SAFE.
* TX-14 Ron Paul (R). No competitor(!!) (Its funny but the Libertarians are running more candidates than the Rs or the Ds; that alone tells me we can do better at getting somebody to fill in these long-shot races)
* TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa (D). Beat GOP 66% to 32%. SAFE.
* TX-16 S. Reyes (D) No GOP contender. (Editor: Fixed typo R->D)

  • TX-17 Chet Edwards (D). Edwards beat Curnock 53% to 46%. Edwards outspent Waco contender Curnock by about 15-to-1 but only eked out a 7 point win. This is a winnable seat, and is tempting because it is the most Republican seat in the nation held by a Democrat. But Chet Edwards is a sly politician who manages always to get re-elected. The fact that he eked out only 53% against a nobody, after winning in 2006 by alot more than that, may tell us that Edwards’ is running out of excuses during the Age of Obama (who he endorsed). Leans DEM.

  • TX-18 Shiela Jackson Lee (D). Beat GOP opponent 77% to 21% SAFE.

  • TX-19 Randy Neugebauer (R). won by over 70%. SAFE.
  • TX-20 Charles Gonzalez (D). beat GOP opponent 72% to 26%. SAFE.
  • TX-21 Lamar Smith (R). No Dem opponent. SAFE.
  • TX-22 Pete Olson(R). He won Delay’s old seat for the GOP beating Lampson by a solid 52% to 45%. well done, Pete! Likely SAFE next time.
  • TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez. Lyle Larson put up a good fight, but still lost 56% to 42%. A Hispanic Republican could make Henry Bonilla’s old seat competitive, but still uphill. Leans DEM.
  • TX-24 Kenny Marchant (R). Beat Dem 56% to 41%. Given the big DEM year, it’s enough of a margin to be SAFE for 2010.
  • TX-25 Lloyd Doggett (D). Doggett was drawn in a more R district than his 65% to 30% win over Morovich suggests, but if we dont recruit better, we’ll never know. Alas, SAFE.
  • TX-26 Burgess (R). 60% to 36% over Dem. SAFE.
  • TX-27 Solomon Ortiz (D). Beat GOP contender 57% to 38%. SAFE.
  • TX-28 Henry Ceullar (D). Won with 68% over GOP opponent. SAFE.
  • TX-29 Gene Green (D). Won with 74% over GOP opponent. SAFE.
  • TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson (D). 82% of the vote(!). SAFE.
  • TX-31 John Carter (R) Got 60% to 36% for Dem opponent (libertarian got 3%). SAFE.

So we have in 2008 two sallies by the Dems into TX-10 and TX-7 that failed. They can try again, but will fail again.

TX-23 and TX-17 is where the action will be in 2010. The Gerrymanderers made the lines pretty darn good to keep most of the seats super safe, so not much other action in Texas House races. Chet’s district is still conservative and Republican and he wins by racking up a huge margin in Waco. Beat down that Waco margin and you beat Chet. (it was an amazing 47,000 to 29,000 in McClennan, while the McCain v Obama numbers were flipped; in other words about 20,000 Waco voters flipped from McCain to Chet Edwards)

Recruit someone like Kip Averitt (R-Waco) to run against Chet Edwards and his politics of pork, patronage and earmark over-spending.
Recruit the next Henry Bonilla to run in TX-23 and take it back for the GOP. Maybe Ted Cruz (Texas solicitor General), or an up-and-comer out of San Antonio. In a ‘wave’ year, and 2010 will be just that if Dems act like they did in 1993-1994, it would be a pickup.

One thing we NEED to do is to get some Hispanic names and faces into the South Texas congressional races. Even if we cant win, we need to recruit top tier folks who can evangelize for the GOP into the hispanic community in Texas.

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COMMENTS

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  • TxCon

    to run for Senate or Governor and he knows it. As for what kind of GOP voters go for Edwards, it’s hard to explain. Waco is influenced by a lot of old money and has also never been represented in the House by a Republican, even though it is a conservative area. It votes for the GOP in state and national election, often times overwhelmingly but has a lot of relatively new GOPers as local elections have just recently started breaking for Republicans. Edwards is viewed by the older citizens a version of former conservative dem icons Bob Poage and Marvin Leath, who represented the area for a combined 50 years. They have a blind spot for Edwards and ignores his record. He is also very visible locally and there a lot of Wacoans who like to think they are hobknobing with the rich and powerful. That is the best explanation I can come up with. Having Johnson and Brzaos County will always keep Edwards under 55%, so an upset is always possible with the right circumstances.

  • LoneStarLizard

    I live in District 23 and agree with your analysis 100%. I believe we can win back this district, but it will require a hispanic Republican candidate with the charisma and experience to win over south Texas voters.

    I would love nothing more than to find a candidate who can defeat Ciro Rodriguez, a radical liberal who is completely out of touch with Texas values. Check out his voting record here:

    http://www.ontheissues.org/TX/Ciro_Rodriguez.htm

  • TxCon

    I had high hopes for Bonilla. He ran a terrible campaign in when he lost. Maybe it was complacency on his part, I don’t know.

    1717, good to hear about 2 more possible seats. If we can keep control of the state legislature, we can win those 2.

    • WOSG

      I had high hopes for Bonilla. He ran a terrible campaign in when he lost. Maybe it was complacency on his part, I don’t know

      Bonilla, like a lot of GOPers, was once a fresh outsider type but got tagged by the GOP brand. 2006 was just the wrong year for a GOP candidate to win in a marginal redistricted district. Is he out of politics or does he want a comeback?

      We really need to recruit well for 2010, because even if the candidate doesnt win, it could be a dry run for a possibly better district in 2012.

      If we can keep control of the state legislature, we can win those 2.

      AH! We will have to do a review of the Texas House seats.

      What do y’all think about MICHAEL WILLIAMS for US Senate?

      • TxCon

        or Victor Carillo for US Senate. Absolutely!

        • WOSG

          Chet Edwards have played up his A&M alum status and pork for the University to rack up a majority in Brazos county. Where he is weak is in Hood and Johnson, the Ft Worth suburbs and towns that are immune to his blue-dog song-and-dance.

          I believe you can turn Chet’s patronage and pork “look what I have done for the district” campaigns against him, as he is an appropriations hog, with the special-interest PAC money to prove that he is a ‘pay for play’ tax-and-spender. I call such creatures “Corruptocrats” and it’s about time someone ran against Chet for his bad and unprincipled ways rather than simple “he’s a lib”.

          • RedStatePolitics

            I live in District 15 in South Texas, and actually worked a little with Eddie Zamora, the GOP challenger to Hinojosa. Part of the problem was that Zamora’s campaign was just himself and he was completely self financed.

            In order to win this seat which Hinojosa has held for quite some time, will take a lot more money than what Zamora has. South Texas is a tough area for a Republican to win, even if they are Hispanic, which Zamora is.

            I hope he runs again, because we need a good conservative like him to represent South Texas.

  • TxCon

    76-74 for the GOP. One race, which was decided by 25 votes, is in a recount. If the dems win that were are looking at a 75-75 tie. The GOP has lost seats in the Tx House over the last three election cycles. The dems have the momentum and we need to slow it down.

  • Jim_Tomasik

    nt

  • TxCon

    because Chet is good on military matters which is crucial in Waco and Brayn/College Station. I live in BCS and grew up in Waco, so I’m all too familiar with Chet. The GOP had their chance in 2004 right after redistrciting. Dot Snyder, former Waco mayor, would have beaten him. The CFG butted in during the primary and the nomination went to a lady from Burleson. The nominee must come from Waco or College Station. Averitt would be a good choice, but he is not well-known outside of Waco. It will take a GOP wave similar to 1994 to beat Chet I’m afraid. This district went 60% for McCain, so it’s frustrating that Edwards keeps winning re-election.

  • WOSG

    One way to take the seat for the GOP would be to have Chet leave it for an Obama post … but he has declared that he will stay in his seat:

    http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7456

    Lib blogs in Texas mention him for Governor or US Senate, but I dont know if that is babbling or serious. Based on Edwards’ rather self-promoting statement, I suspect he’s wanting to stay in TX-17 over any other run. He probably likes his chances where he is vs running up against KBH for Gov.

    whaddaya think?

  • WOSG

    Yes, Reyes is a Dem, that was a typo.

  • WOSG

    First, Chet Edwards is ‘good’ on military matters … mainly by being a pork, patronage and earmark king, and using some of that for VA stuff and some of the defense contractors who fund his campaigns (along with liberal special interests, unions, etc.). He was against funding the surge, for example, an issue Curnock raised.

    Averitt would be a good choice, but he is not well-known outside of Waco. It will take a GOP wave similar to 1994 to beat Chet I’m afraid. This district went 60% for McCain, so it’s frustrating that Edwards keeps winning re-election.

    Actually, he doesnt need to be well known outside Waco. I’ve done the numbers. Hope this is not too hard to read:

    2008 GOP primary    McCain obama        Curnock Edwards

    * Brazos 13,195 37403 20459 25083 31316
    * Bosque 1444 5760 1796 3549 3954
    * Burleson 1313 4546 2053 647 751
    * Hill 3608 9220 3802 5525 7226
    * Grimes 1846 5561 2704 3676 4454
    * Hood 7514 17269 5078 13168 8244
    * Johnson 10452 36683 12903 26545 21709
    * Limestone 1153 5062 2515 1384 2088
    * Madison 729 2883 1144 1573 2415
    * McLennan 18268 49005 29959 31152 47390
    * Robertson 748 3979 2674 1465 3268
    * Somervell 756 2675 798 1701 1657
    * Total 61,026 180046 85885 265931 115468 134472
    * BHJMCounties 49429 140360 68399 0 95948 108659

    Total in percent
    McCain 67.7%
    Obama 32.3%
    Curnock 46.2%
    Edwards 53.8%

    The way it breaks down is this:
    You had about 60,000 GOP primary voters, and 180,000 total McCain voters. Assuming Edwards got every single Obama voter, and all the GOP primary voters showed up for Curnock on election day, then Edwards also got 50,000 out of the 120,000 McCain supporters who are not GOP primary voters. Edwards got 50,000 ‘splitters’, more than a third of his own vote. If you flip an additional 25% of them back, Chet Edwards loses.

    Chet Edwards racks up big gains in Waco and Brazos, but loses in Hood and Johnson. H & J are growing. And candidate that cuts the 20,000 margin down to parity would win.

    So I think the 2008 results are VERY ENCOURAGING for us. Consider: In 2004 Edwards spent a million dollars trashing Arlene Wolgemuth and winning narrowly. In 2006 he trashed Van Taylor as some Exxon person (instead of Iraq vet) and won big. That big margin looked like a factor due to Edwards strength, but it was really a judgment of Van Taylor’s weakness. this year, he was against Curnock – who filed on the last day because they couldnt find someone else to file – and Edwards won by the closest margin in Texas and by only a slightly larger margin than in 2004 – even though Edwards spent $1 million to only $80,000 for Curnock! Another way to put it: Edwards against a nobody Republican can only get 53%.

    Chet didnt get those splitters by letting the folks know he took thousands from left-wing special interest PACs, unions and corporate PACs paying him off for his earmark activities. The whole seamy underbelly of how Chet manages to survive in office – by patronage and pork – was not pursued by previous GOP campaigns that lamely went after him with “Chet is a liberal” (true, but apparently not enough to unseat Chet). There will be campaign arguments that will be available that was not available before – a creative campaign can use them.

    we should prepare for the likelihood that 2010 will be a ‘favorable’ year like 1994 was for us. Edwards could lose to a Republican in 2010 with just a 4% vote shift from 2008. Since Obama won by 8% this year, we could get that shift merely from changes in popularity/turnout, and then win with a good, locally-strong candidate.

  • TxCon

    if the McLennan county GOP would stop endorsing candidates in the primary. The GOP has never run a good candidate against him. Kip Averitt would by far be the best one. I still maintain that it will be very difficult. There are so many in Waco for whom Chet Edwards is the only democrat they may ever vote for.

  • WOSG

    Any further thoughts on what type of GOP voter goes for Edwards and what are the reasons why, and are they changeable voters?

    BTW Looking at 2006, I was that Van Taylor got about the Perry vote. I notice that in a local race here against a popular Dem incumbent – basically the Perry vote was the core GOP conservative vote and the Strayhorn was the GOP-leaning mod-to-conservative, Friedman the libertarian/populist/redneck and Chris Bell the die-hard-Dems. It’s a helpful way of breaking down the real voter segments.

  • dld1717

    I heard TX is slated to gain 2 congress seats so hopefully we can add to our wins in the great state of Texas