Election 2008: Ohio Presidential Election
John McCain has opened a modest lead over Barack Obama in the key swing state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Buckeye State shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month and the month before McCain held a insignificant one-point lead over Obama.
Seven percent (7%) of voters say they’d prefer a third party candidate over either McCain or Obama and another 7% remain undecided.
* When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 52% to 42%*.
I remember the Push for Bush
Commodore Perry Tuesday, July 22nd at 11:24AM EDT (link)… in 2004, where we in the CR’s at OSU really believed that our efforts made all the difference. I don’t know if that’s completely true, but Columbus surely was key.
Since Strickland has said he won’t run for VP, McCain must lock up this state. The one thing about Ohio voters is that they seem to be smart enough to understand that one bad apple does not necessarily represent the whole bunch; case in point being Taft, whom nobody liked, was governor, but the state went for Bush in 2004.
GO BUCKS!!!
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DONT GIVE UP THE SHIP
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I Don't Think McCain Will Win by 10% in OH
IJB Tuesday, July 22nd at 11:25AM EDT (link)For what it’s worth, I tend to think OH is probably roughly tied right now (46%-40% would be roughly in the margin of error for that), with possibly an ever-so-slight edge for McCain.
So, while I don’t believe the polls showing Obama up in OH, I also don’t believe McCain is up 10% there.
Because I can't allow anyone to be happy
mbauer Tuesday, July 22nd at 11:44AM EDT (link)Public Policy Polling’s poll released today contridicts this one.
It claims a 48-40 lead for Obama.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPPReleaseOhio_721.pdf
Ohio is a must for McCain
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 11:51AM EDT (link)This is 20 electoral votes and it’s really crucial for McCain. McCain has still chance even if Pensylvannia will go to Nobama.
Now, we have to think how to address the fact that North Dakota, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico are leaning for Nobama.
Hearing this news is good enough to keep our faith.
Hope we hear something good in Michigan.
Never mind the additional 7 states of Obama.
PPP Is a Dem Firm
IJB Tuesday, July 22nd at 11:54AM EDT (link)At least, RCP has them down as a Dem form.
Hence my point - don’t believe any polls that have a big lead for Obama (which takes Quinnipiac out, as well), or McCain, for that matter.
Assume OH is roughly tied right now, with maybe a slight edge to McCain.
ppp/zogby/arg
wsjreader Tuesday, July 22nd at 11:57AM EDT (link)Throw PPP/ARG/Zogby into garbage bin.
PPP predicted a 1 point win by Osama in PA primary, well we all know what happened.
Heck!
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:01PM EDT (link)I like many of your comments here at RS but the timing of this one is soo… annoying…..
I have just posted my comment of Hope, and not less than a minute, here comes your bad news. Couldn’t you wait up at least for an hour before you posted comment so that we could at least have some quality time to enjoy this Rasmussen Report? (Never mind if its accurate or not).
No! I won’t open up your PDF file. I will continue to believe that McCain is up in Ohio (may be by 5% only?).
Doubt Rassmussen at your own risk
Dave_in_Fla Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:04PM EDT (link)I did in 2006, and was proven dead wrong.
Say what you want, but his robopolls have yet to be shown to be wrong in the last 5 election cycles.
I think you can expect that McCain has a very solid 6 point lead in Ohio right now.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” - Joe McCarthy
Thats pretty impressive
Brandon Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:06PM EDT (link)And unexpected. Maybe the MSM will finally realize what 50% of the public knows, that there is actually a qualified candidate for president and his name is John McCain.
Its actually pretty impressive how well McCain has polled considering his campaign seemed a bit inconsistent at times.
If McCain can stay on message and start slamming Obama a little more (on his policies) I am fairly sure he’s got a good shot to win this thing.
- Brandon
McCain 08
Well, maybe some good news then
mbauer Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:10PM EDT (link)Epic-MRA
A Michigan polling group recently showed there state giving Obama only a +2 advantage.
I do believe that the Nation will trend to the Republican as the presidential election comes nearer as it always does- because we have reality on our side.
And lastly, I don’t know a ton about which polls are traditionally Liberal biased polls. I do know Rasmussen has a darn good track record.
No!
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:10PM EDT (link)Just for this one, I will take which came first which is 10% lead by Old Pal Mac and outrightly throw the revisionist view of PPP. At least I have something positive to hope for.
Mbauer’s report for me is like forcing me to jump in an icy water right after having a nice sunbath with no time to cool down a bit.
No know the game of our bauer boy here.
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:15PM EDT (link)He wants to pull our legs. And he’s silently laughing with a foolish grin while we’re brooding on the bad news.
Projections
mbauer Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:17PM EDT (link)Ohio is without a doubt the most likely tipping point state in this election. I’d go as far as to say either candidate has about a 10% chance of winning the election given that they lose Ohio.
The order of tipping point states is most likely
1)Ohio
2)Michigan
3)Colorado
4)Pennsylvania
5)Virginia
Also, I think there are a few ways McCain can win if he loses Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania- even though it is fairly slim. Obama has zero chance without those three.
The same poll a month ago had it 50/39.
Moe Lane Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:19PM EDT (link)http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPPReleaseOhio_61708.pdf
If we’re going to play Dueling Polls.
Check out my new blog at http://moelane.com/.
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My (blogging-related) wish list.
Well
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:23PM EDT (link)Now. Now. That’s my mbauer. He also knows how to bring a gospel of hope to cure a pessimist conservative like me.
Good work, friend! Search for more positive figures in the polls to make us happy here at RS.
Bias
mbauer Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:25PM EDT (link)As I’ve been hawkishly watching polls, I’ve noticed fairly often that Rasmussen gives the most optimism to the right. It does somewhat confuse me that their isn’t any big name poll that skews data to the right while there are several big names that skew data to the left.
But, before I dare wonder if Rasmussen perhaps was the one skewing data to the right, I noticed that even liberal sites that keep up with data often give Rasmussen the highest credibility rankings. And then put polls like Zogby or even PPP near the bottom of the barrel.
I guess what I’m saying is I sometimes assume there’d be just as much number manipulating on either side, when it honestly appears that’s not the case.
I personally find polls to be popcorn.
Moe Lane Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:28PM EDT (link)Some nutritional value, but I mostly eat them for the butter and the salt.
Check out my new blog at http://moelane.com/.
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My (blogging-related) wish list.
Other battleground states
Freedoms Truth Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:32PM EDT (link)“Now, we have to think how to address the fact that North Dakota, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico are leaning for Nobama.”
New Mexico and Colorado should be Ground Zero Battleground do-all-you-can states.
Both are winnable, and we have key Senate races to boot there.
I cant believe North Dakota will go for Obama. WTF? Is this due to high conservative undecided making McCain look weaker than he really will be in the stretch? Are people still really fooled by the phony hype campaign of Obama to the extent that moderate and conservatives will think they are buying a ‘post-racial bipartisan healer’ type?
Iowa is cultural conservative and isolationist. Once Iowans realize that Obama is extremist pro-abortion and pro-gay marriage (opposes Cali referendum) and Obama is wrong on the whole Iraq thing with his stubborn opposition to a surge that has won us victory in Iraq, they’ll come around too, at least enough to give McCain a 50/50 shot there.
I’d add another 3 key states to nail down will be Virginia, Missouri, and New Hamsphire. Again 2 of these have senate races so more reason to put big efforts there.
The GOOD news here is that if Ohio and likely Florida are favoring McCain, then McCain will have an easier time in these other battleground states.
Freedoms Truth,
Travis Monitor - http://travismonitor.blogspot.com
Austin, TX
Well put *5*
mbauer Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:36PM EDT (link)nt
We can forgive mbauer
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:37PM EDT (link)He has vindicated himself from that PPP magic result.
He’s just given us an update that the BO’s lead in Michigan was cut to only 2%. Last time I saw, I was about 6%.
I think this quasi-silent, purely-goodie, low-key, boringly principled, and MSM-shortcircuited campaign strategy of our Big Mac is really working to his own advantage.
We can even say if McCain wins this election (and I hope he will), he will actually mark a new dawn for the American political system: that in the 21st Century America, principle politics and dignified campaigning are far more superior and effective than rethorics, money and the MSM spins.
We can forgive mbauer
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:37PM EDT (link)He has vindicated himself from that PPP magic result.
He’s just given us an update that the BO’s lead in Michigan was cut to only 2%. Last time I saw, I was about 6%.
I think this quasi-silent, purely-goodie, low-key, boringly principled, and MSM-shortcircuited campaign strategy of our Big Mac is really working to his own advantage.
We can even say if McCain wins this election (and I hope he will), he will actually mark a new dawn for the American political system: that in the 21st Century America, principle politics and dignified campaigning are far more superior and effective than rethorics, money and the MSM spins.
Anecdotally... I can back this poll up...
David_Rasbold Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:41PM EDT (link)Was recently in Warren, Ohio (smaller blue-collar town that has lost tons of manufacuring jobs) and while eating at a local Panera Bread I engaged a group of elderly ladies talking politics. I couldn’t resist and asked them about their thoughts.
All four of the ladies (I assume they were in their late 50s and 60s) were all democrats - life long - that interestinlgy would not be voting for Barack. Period. In fact, not only will they not be voting for Obama, three of the four were definitely going to vote for McCain. All were Hillary supporters.
Yes, this is anecdotal. Yes, it’s a small town in Ohio. However, I think it’s telling about a potentially significant group of people in blue-collar states.
These ladies spoke of their friends and neighbors that feel/believe the same way they do.
In the end, and i asked them specifically about this, they said their is absolutely nothing that could sway them to vote for Obama.
If nothing else it’s interesting. At the most, it possibly portends much about how this election will ultimately play out in states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Indiana.
Consider it food for thought!
And YOU eat popcorn?!
Cheetah772 Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:44PM EDT (link)That’s just so…ordinary!
Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
That is probably not the wise thing to do
Herodotus Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:47PM EDT (link)Strange as it may sound PPP and Rasmussen had equal accuracy ratings during this year’s primary season.
Sign Newt’s Drilling Petition. I have included a link to it in the below. Thank you.
http://www.americansolutions.com/
PUMA Power!
Freedoms Truth Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:49PM EDT (link)The PUMAs (anti-Barack Hillary supporters) are a key swing vote in this election.
The NObama sites from PUMAs are growing like weeds, as are “Democrats for McCain” and other sundry movements and efforts.
Some downscale Democrats, some of whom were ‘Reagan Democrats’, will come back and be ‘McCain Democrats’ as Obama’s elitist leftwing thin-skinned more-arrogance-than-experience campaign rubs them the wrong way.
http://no-bama.blogspot.com/
Freedoms Truth,
Travis Monitor - http://travismonitor.blogspot.com
Austin, TX
Rust belt Power
mbauer Tuesday, July 22nd at 12:52PM EDT (link)Not being from that area, I don’t know how similar the states really are, but 3 of the 4 rust belt states (MI, PA, and OH) are pretty much in control of the fate of this election.
I don’t see why McCain doesn’t set up camp in either Cleavland or Columbus OH and only leave that 3 state area about once a week for the next few months. I wonder long it’d take him to hit every town hall in those three states.
Someone wittier than I should make a joke about Columbus and its wagon wheel like design.
You're probably right
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 1:00PM EDT (link)about North Dakota.
But as per Rasmussen, the last poll showed that McCain’s lead was only 1%. We may add the fact that the Obamanots are really eyeing on ND as one of Red-turned-Blue states by November. They’re relying on heavy ads and greater number of campaign centers.
Nevertheless, I hope you’re right about ND.
They are very much a like
Herodotus Tuesday, July 22nd at 1:05PM EDT (link)PA (especially the western part) and OH are very similar. Both have a lot of NRA and union members. Abortion is a big issue in both states. Both states share media markets.
Sign Newt’s Drilling Petition. I have included a link to it in the below. Thank you.
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Actually
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 1:07PM EDT (link)I was really shocked when I heard that McCain agreed to Gov. Arnuld to put up many campaign offices in California.
I do think it’s really a waste of money and time. McCain must focus on the battleground states including Michigan and Ohio. He can forget about his own California dreams given the present situation. I dunno.
an important peice of data from this poll:
Brandon Tuesday, July 22nd at 1:18PM EDT (link)McCain is supported by 88% of Republicans and Obama earns the vote from 74% of Democrats.
- Brandon
McCain 08
I respect PUMA
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 1:19PM EDT (link)Now that these Democrats are listening to what the Republicans are saying about Obama, they are more than anxious to reverse the results of the primaries in favor of Hillary. They are now 100% certain that Obama will bring perils to the American people if he becomes president.
That says alot since many of the PUMA members are really die-hard democrats. And they’re doing great.
I therefore give my respect to the PUMA ladies.
My current polling average-OH
theoneandonlyfinn Tuesday, July 22nd at 1:23PM EDT (link)when trend adjusted (and polls weighted based on fivethirtyeight.com’s pollster rankings), is McCain +1.5 in Ohio.
The following polls are incorporated:
Rasmussen 52-42 McCain
PPP 48-40 Obama
SurveyUSA 48-46 Obama (6/22)
Qpoll (6/16) 48-42 Obama
I wouldnt be shocked if Quinnipiac released another PA-OH-FL batch or CO-MI-etc this week…
You mean
Rod_Patrick Tuesday, July 22nd at 1:23PM EDT (link)almost 1/4 of the Democrats don’t support Obama in OH?
That says alot. It is really a big problem for the Obamanots.
The reason the right (and left) like Rasmussen...
Dave_in_Fla Tuesday, July 22nd at 1:40PM EDT (link)I cut my teeth on polling when I was hanging around another site during the 2004 campaign. There was a TRUE expert that was posting there anonymously, who has worked as a polling specialist on many campaigns.
He gave us a huge lesson that year on the value or polls and their quality. Every time a new poll came out, he would disect their internals for us and show us whether it was good or bad. Rasmussen was consistently shown to be a good poll, due to the well crafted questions, methodology, likely voter model, and sample size. Rasmussen is accurate because his methodlogy is good. Others are accurate (e.g. Zogby) because they get lucky. During 2004, Rasmussen’s 3 day tracking poll showed a steady 3pt lead for Bush throughout the last 2 weeks (the only time when polls actually mean anything), while the other polls showed wild swings in opinion between Kerry and Bush.
Now the knock on Rasmussen is that he uses an automated telephone polling system that people keep trying to argue is going to be inaccurate due to changes in cell phone uses, etc. These are interesting arguments, but until he is shown to actually BE WRONG, then his methodology remains solid. I was hoping that he was wrong in 2006, and was drinking the kool-aid hoping that the Dems weren’t going to kill us. But Rasmussen was right and my hopes were very wrong.
The real problem with all the polling, is that sites like RCP use poll averaging to try and identify the state of the race. This tends to be inaccurate, because they average in the good with the bad to determine the totals. So left leaning polls with bad methodology count just as much as good polls. This would be ok if we had right leaning polls, but I’m unaware of any such polls. So we are left with a small number of good polls and a lot of crap that exists to drive the media agenda. The end result is an over sample of Dem strength, which leads us to crazy results like the 2004 election where everyone was convinced Kerry had won, until they actually counted votes.
My method now is to count any poll Rasmussen releases as gospel, and rely on poll averages only if Rasmussen doesn’t have a recent poll in a particular race.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” - Joe McCarthy
Which Will Probably Be "In the Tank" for Obama
IJB Tuesday, July 22nd at 2:53PM EDT (link)I have not been impressed with Quinnipiac this cycle.
Competition
mbauer Tuesday, July 22nd at 2:58PM EDT (link)Survey USA and Rasmussen are in direct competition. I wouldn’t use their results as the best method for rating polls. I’ve seen several others who rate Rasmussen much higher.