McCain had a great week , no doubt, but it’s still a long way to go since 2008 really shapes to be a bad year for any Republican. Obama is the weakest candidate, which is probably the only way democrats could lose in November.
It’s pretty amusing and satisfying to watch democratic consultants & pundits gasping in horror and fear when anything associated with Karl Rove is mentioned. Their latest obsession and bogeyman, is Steve Schmidt, the so-called protege of Karl Rove.
No doubt Steve Schmidt has been doing a great job in the past week. McCain’s ‘The One’ Web Ad is a huge success. The youtube version has already generated close to half a million hits within 24 hours. If you google search using ‘the one’ as key words, close to 150 papers including NYT/Washington/Foxnews have carried this story. The beauty is that many of these stories on their website also linked to the youtube video, and further helped to generate the traffic.
Rasmussen’s daily tracking number might be another reason ‘The One’ would choose to give a press conference on an empty Saturday morning?
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that the race for the White House has become breathtakingly close. Barack Obama attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. While the race has been very close for much of the past few weeks, McCain has never held the lead for even a single day in the two weeks since Obama clinched the nomination.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain earns positive reviews from 86% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 82% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 60% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 50%.
great ad
Pentagon16 Saturday, August 2nd at 4:19PM EDT (link)don’t forget that the previous McCain ad “Celeb” has over 1,100,000 hits in under a week as well..
keep driving people to view these youtubes, then the media is forced to cover them and it is an endless circle of goodness..
“Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren’t like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment”- Barack Carter Obama
That Rasmussen poll has an important tidbit
Dave_in_Fla Saturday, August 2nd at 7:26PM EDT (link)McCain favorable at 56%. Obama favorable at 53%.
Two weeks ago, Obama had a 5% lead in the track. 1 week ago it was a 3% lead. 3 days ago it was 2%. Today it is 1%.
The big question is does Obama have a floor, since McCain isn’t going up, Obama is just going down.
I think what is going on is that Obama’s soft support from June has now dropped back to the sidelines. They are thinking about switching to McCain, but haven’t made that commitment. If you see McCain move up to 44% or 45%, then those soft supporters will have made up their mind.
Obama is in trouble and may not even know how much. He is in Florida right now, seduced by that Quin poll into thinking he has a chance here.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” - Joe McCarthy
I think you've hit this one on the nose.
CrabCakes Saturday, August 2nd at 7:41PM EDT (link)It seems that McCain has managed to chip into Obama’s favorables, but has yet to convince them that he’s the way to go. As I’ve argued elsewhere, I don’t think he’s going about it in the right way, but time will tell.
Your second point, about Obama in Florida, is another aspect of the campaign that makes me a bit uneasy. There are two basic schools of thought: 1) Pick the swing states that are most likely to tip your way and focus all your energy on them, putting all your eggs in one basket (both Bush and Kerry used this strategy in 2004, and McCain has in 2008 so far) and 2) Try to put as many states as possible into play, leaving yourself several routes to victory, but less resources for each route (Obama 2008). If Obama wins this thing, he’ll be hailed as a genius who fundamentally rethought the way a presidential ground campaign should be run. If he loses, a lot of folks are going to be a bit upset about his having several campaign headquarters in Montana and North Dakota.
As of now, I’m not sure which I think is the better path. The upside to Obama’s plan is that he could conceivably win the White House while losing both Ohio and Florida. The downside is that Ohio may still be his best bet and that he may be diverting resources into less profitable endeavors.
McCain Needs To Get Above 45%
IJB Saturday, August 2nd at 10:08PM EDT (link)McCain has been at 44-45% in several instances since June.
What he’s never successfully done is crack 45% in either tracking poll for more than a day.
If McCain creeps up to a consistent 46-48% in either of the daily tracking polls, it will be a significant change in dynamics.
Until then, he’s keeping it close, but not pulling ahead.