« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

Why I do NOT want a Brokered Convention

By: YnotNOW (Diary)  |  March 20th, 2012 at 03:36 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Larry Sabato is definitely a smart guy, with clear thought behind his positions. In this case, I generally agree with him, but feel this case is often overstated.

1) In modern times, each party’s National Convention is not really a nominating activity, but a kick-off of the general election campaign. It becomes dog and pony show for the press to give them free publicity. Well, not free because the convention is pretty expensive, but the amount of air-time is worth so much more. And it works, as evidenced by the “bump” in the polls that candidates tend to get from their convention. So a brokered convention would lose that opportunity. Hard to make up for this later in the campaign.

2) On the other hand, the contentiousness of a primary battle usually does not significantly hurt the eventual nominee. How much did the rhetoric between Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton hurt the eventual nominee? Critics point to the re-election campaign of Jimmy Carter that was hurt by the primary battle with Ted Kennedy, but you have to realize how much ineptitude the public recognized in Carter. What really matters is WHO the eventual nominee is, and whether they can unify the party faithful and appeal to the (majority of the) general electorate.

3) In the case of a contested convention, who they may end up nominating is totally up for grabs, and that is where my biggest concern with this possiblity lies. Voters who are dissatisfied with the current nominees hope this will give their “white knight” to ride in and save the day. But if there were such a savior, where has he (or she) been over the past 6 months? If they could not gain the support of enough primary voters, are they really a viable candidate? And do you trust the party insiders, who will dominate the convention floor because of their “experience” and “leadership” credentials, to broker between competing groups for a “concensus” nominee? It would likely end up being an establishment pick, rather than a choice of all of the voters as expressed in the primaries and caucuses.

So, my bottom line is that I don’t trust the outcome of a brokered convention to be any better (and likely to be much worse) than the result of a contentious primary battle.

May the best candidate win!

Tags: , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • Ausonius

    would you trade that for a Romney/Rubio ticket?

    Or would the V-P candidate be irrelevant to your dislike of Romney?

    As YNotNow reminds us, an open convention does not necessarily mean a better outcome.

    • acat

      Because if Romney gets to 1375 or so, Crazy Uncle Ron will be close enough that Romney can avoid dealing with Santorum or Gingrich.

      Mew

      • YnotNOW

        to heal wounds. My personal preference of Jindal is only one of many options.

        • acat

          So far, he’s been assuming he’ll have conservative support …

          What are they going to do, vote for Obama?

          Mew

          • YnotNOW

            or even slap conservatives in the face with a “moderate squish” pick for VP. I think he has better political instincts than that, but the scenario is not far-fetched at all. He does seem to be positioning for the general election and appeal to “independents” already….

            (sigh)

          • acat

            Romney must run to the center to win …

            Really, chrys? Really?

            When did Romney *leave* the center?

            How can you tell if Romney left the center? Does he leave a trail of $100s or something?

            Let’s just hope Romney doesn’t play possum…

            Mew

    • garfieldjl

      You’re trying to get me to support Romney over having a brokered convention, by influencing Romney’s VP pick.

      Sorry but I would rather have a messy brokered convention than Romney be the nominee. I don’t care if his VP pick was George Washington (you know our 1st President), I would still rather have the brokered convention.

      I honestly believe a brokered convention would be less destructive to the Republican party and the Conservative Movement than nominating Romney. Romney would be the perfect target for Obama’s class warfare campaign.

      My personal opinion is Romney is unelectable in the general election, and even if he were to beat Obama, chances are he would continue Obama’s policies.

      Quite frankly I want a Republican nominee that I can actually support, not one that spits on me and claims its rain.

      Winning in November means absolutely nothing if all we’re doing is replacing one big government liberal with another big government liberal.

      • Ausonius

        My question above was not implying anything: apparently you will not support Romney no matter who the V-P nominee might be.

        Fine.

        Whom would you want nominated? Any ideas?

        • YnotNOW

          is that if you want a “brokered convention” to pick an alternative to Romney, they are likely to go with another establishment candidate – can you say “President McConnell” or “President Boehner”??? I didn’t think so.

          The nominee would not only be some out-of-left-field choice, but would not have the legitimacy of the votes of the people selecting them. That is a recipe for failure for sure!

          • YnotNOW

            But there needs to be healing and reconciliation within the party (if Romney achieves the nomination in spite of so many of the base being against him). VP choice is one step in that direction.

            ps. – There would need to be “healing” for any of the candidates to unify the Republican party. I think it will happen one way or another.

          • garfieldjl

            McCain didn’t have this level of raw anger directed towards him.

            I seriously doubt VP pick will help Romney at all.

            Really a brokered convention is the best way to go.

            I would suggest Gingrich or Palin to be the nominee.

            Possibly Perry as VP.

          • YnotNOW

            coalesce around Gingrich (who so many of the establishment hate with a passion), or Palin (who so many of the establishment despise)? The people in charge of the convention will be ESTABLISHMENT. So don’t give them the reigns – keep it in the voters’ hands.

            Add a little realism to your idealism!

          • garfieldjl

            It actually would come down to the delegates, at which point there is more likely to be a deal between Santorum and Gingrich.

            Romney has burned way too many bridges.

          • YnotNOW

            as I noted above. I would not trust the convention to pick someone that the voters picked second or third. They might, but they might not. Do you really want to go down that trail?

          • garfieldjl

            Romney can’t run on his own record, so he has to outspend his opponents and smear them.

            Unfortunately for Romney, he won’t have enough money to outspend Obama.

            Furthermore, I know precisely how to take apart the Romney campaign when it is the general election, it is so obvious the idea of nominating his is insane. Additionally Romney wouldn’t be able to fight back.

            You want to lose in November, make Romney the nominee.

            Also would you care to explain
            http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/03/obama-hq-holds-offtherecord-briefing-with-romneys-118098.html

          • luvnthebigsites

            Hey garfieldjl… If you got all this ammo to take out Romney in the general shouldn’t you be working the other side of the isle?

            Seminar blogger’s are boring.

          • garfieldjl

            As for the comments about referencing politico, I have a look at their site every once in a while, because you can get some useful information if you can distinguish fact from left-wing propaganda.

            Back to my original point, Obama can easily beat Romney due to Bain Capital.

            The classic Democrat election campaign strategy involves an appeal to emotion in order to distract people from looking at the facts. Romney plays right into this with Bain Capital, to make matters worse he is the perfect poster child for Obama’s class warfare rhetoric.

            Meanwhile Romney has the Romneycare problem which seriously blunts any attempt to go after Obamacare.

            Santorum ends up caught in the appeal to emotion due to his tendency to get caught up in social issues ad nausem. However, Santorum has a clear shot at going after Obamacare both in appeal to logic and appeal to emotion. In other words Santorum actually has a chance of beating Obama.

            Democrats would have a hard time using appeal to emotion while versing Gingrich and could end up backfiring. He hasn’t gotten bogged down in the social issues and he’s able to put Obama on the defensive and keep him on it.

            The gas prices issue that Gingrich is raising is an appeal to logic, an appeal to emotion, and an appeal to voters’ self-interest. Obama is forced to react because Gingrich has brought a tangible issue in play that affects voters in their pocket-books.

            Based on what we’ve seen so far, Gingrich has the strongest general election game plan. Furthermore, his baggage is the hardest for Obama to attack.

    • SoFiMil

      until shortly before the convention if the sop continues this election cycle. Therefore, the choices are brokered convention or Romney with a possible running mate of Rubio. With no further information to go on, I’m taking Rubio’s “no” at face value.

      Also, my understanding/interpretation of the law is Romney can’t say who is running mate is (assuming he gets to 1144) until he’s reached 1144.

    • SoFiMil

      Yes, it would be enough to assuage me.

  • YnotNOW

    Then that nominee would have the albatross hung around their neck that they were not “democratically elected” by the people, and were instead picked by the horse-trading in a “smoke-filled room”.

    That would be a significant hurdle to overcome in the General Election, that swings based upon the sound-bite impressions of the less-politically-involved public.

    Plus, I truly do not trust the convention to pick a “better” candidate, and might even pick some one even worse!