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Is PJ Media Right? Are Rep/Conservatives at a Future Disadvantage?

By: Freiheit (Diary)  |  May 5th, 2012 at 11:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

This was linked over at HotAir to PJ Media. I’m interested in hearing RedState’s reactions. Are the 10 reasons listed correct, and if they are, what should be done about it?

The Last Republican Media

Is it possible that George W. Bush could be the last Republican president ever, or at least for the foreseeable future? Am I crazy to even formulate that question? Maybe not and here are 10 reasons why.

1. Rapidly changing demographic trends that favor the Democrat Party.
2. An education system controlled by liberals that churns out young liberals.
3. A population with an ever increasing dependence on government in the form of entitlements and subsidies.
4. A mainstream media that is overwhelmingly comprised of journalists who subtly and not so subtly spin the news in support of Democrats and liberal causes.
5. The influence of Hollywood, which makes it cool to be a liberal Democrat.
6. The growing power concentrated in local, state, and federal government worker unions, whose members actively campaign against Republicans on the taxpayer dime. (See WI Governor Walker’s upcoming recall election for an active example of this.)
7. A culture where non-traditional social and sexual behavior has become mainstream.
8. A hatred for Republicans in general and a tendency to blame the party for “the mess we’ve inherited.”
9. A Republican Party that is growing increasingly white, old, southern, and male, while alienating majorities of younger voters, Hispanics, African Americans, gays, teachers, young professionals, atheists, unmarried women, and even suburban married women.
10. The internet and the growing social media phenomenon that strongly tilts in favor of Democrats.

Further analysis here.

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  • zachv

    I think there’s a problem we have in the Republican Party and with many conservative politicians in being able to reach out and connect with voters.

    Republicans tend to do poorer in some demographics. Obvious. But I don’t believe that the reason we do poorly in these demographics is due to ideology/issue stances or the demographics themselves, but rather how we’ve represented the message.

    It’s silly – but the human mind is wired to connect with the ‘like’ and ‘familiar’ things. People trust ‘word of mouth’, friend referrals and people who think/look like them much, much more than the ‘unfamiliar’ or the third-party advertisements that you see on TV or the radio.

    You look at the make-up of Congress and PJ’s right. How are we supposed to convince the young unmarried Latina or the elderly black gentleman that conservative ideas are what’s best for the country when all we have is that old bumbly white geezer?

    No offense meant to the geezer … of course, but it’s a vexing issue.

  • ennaneko

    1. Rapidly changing demographic trends that favor the Democrat Party.

    - Hispanics are the fastest growing minority and a lot of them are Christians and come from cultures based on old European values. The liberal ones are mostly the product of public schools and urbanization and the only issue keeping a lot of them Democrat is the current fight over illegal immigration.

    2. An education system controlled by liberals that churns out young liberals.

    - true but they also come out losers and many are fighting for charter schools and vouchers in liberal areas like Los Angeles. The product of American public schools are being left behind in the global labor market.

    3. A population with an ever increasing dependence on government in the form of entitlements and subsidies.

    - which a lot of people in the world now see as unsustainable.

    4. A mainstream media that is overwhelmingly comprised of journalists who subtly and not so subtly spin the news in support of Democrats and liberal causes.

    - but the mainstream media is becoming less and less relevant

    5. The influence of Hollywood, which makes it cool to be a liberal Democrat.

    - Hollywood is lame, they’ve lost a large part of their audience to video games and other forms of interactive entertainment

    6. The growing power concentrated in local, state, and federal government worker unions, whose members actively campaign against Republicans on the taxpayer dime. (See WI Governor Walker

    • trimulchio

      The Map is Red and getting Redder. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2010-race-maps/house/

      The Blue Model is dying and everyone sees it. http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/category/blue-social-model/

      The Democrats have no new ideas and no old ideas that work, as demonstrated by Obama, Pelosi and Obay’s Porkulus “Plan.”

      I would guess by about 2016 pundits will start to mention that the Democrats are no longer able to elect a President.

      • trimulchio

        http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/07/president-obama-hopes-this-man-is-wrong/

  • brianr

    I could see Romney grabbing all of those toss-up states- doesn’t seem like a far stretch to me, and by no means do I view Romney with rose-colored glasses.

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  • commonsenseobserver

    The problem is that states administer many of their own programs with federal funding.

  • acat

    to be a Good Thing.

    Capping benefits is much easier at the State level – there are fewer Liberals, and it’s harder for them to fight in 50 statehouses than 1 congress, eh?

    Mew

  • commonsenseobserver

    Though some states have done nothing to tackle waste, fraud, and abuse, and the feds end up footing the bill. Much better if the federal government stopped administering welfare programmes altogether and instead cut taxes for lower earners. Then Republicans on the state level can start pointing to Democrats who refuse to cap benefits and instead raise taxes.

  • snowshooze

    Rather than send it in, and then have to beg to get some back, and after it has been pilfered, it comes with a bunch of strings…
    Let the States be in complete control and have full right and responsibility.

    There is no need or place for the Federal Government in many of these programs.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Much better if the federal government stopped *funding* welfare programmes altogether.

  • mikeymike143

    and here are my reasons for saying that.

    1. the census: census numbers shows people leaving liberal states and moving to conservative ones. that trend will continue and those census numbers are used to change the electoral college votes. for instance, texas picked up four votes off this last census, new york lost two votes. that type of math is a plus for the GOP.

    2. obama: after jimmy carter screwed up our country it took the dems a long time to get another one dem elected(and if bush didnt break that ”read my lips no new taxes” promise in order to accomodate the dems in congress, it would have been a lot longer than that). since 1980, there have only been two democratic presidents. and that mumber includes obama. obama will be like jimmy carter, a really good reminder for voters why it is not a good idea to elect a democrat to POTUS.

    3, people are living longer: dont laugh, i am serious. young voters are more likely to vote democrat and older(and wiser) voters are more likely to vote republican. the average median age continues to rise every year, which naturally means the voter pool of republicans will continue to grow every year.

    4. the tea party: if the election of marco rubio and mike lee and ron johnson didnt convince you that the tea party makes a difference, just look at the indiana senate race that is currently going on. we are active and we show up to vote. and we vote republican. the dems have no group to match what we bring to the table.

    5. the dems turn to the far left.: look at the dems final 2 candidates last primary, both hillary and obama are far far left. you pretty much have to be in order to win the democratic nomination. however, americans identify themselves as conservatives by a 2 to 1 margin over liberals. you can do the math on this one.

    i would say that this article is a bunch of nonsense written by the exact same people that said in 2008 that republicans will never win any branch of congress again, and then listed a bunch of reason why. but we no longer call pelosi speaker, and in november we will no longer call obama president.

  • acat

    I would also prefer to see the safety net returned to being a safety net, rather than the smothering straitjacket it’s become.

    Welfare should be a last resort, not a way of life for generations.

    How to change it, though … is a much longer conversation than just “I think the Fed should stop funding it”.

    Since Congress writes the budget, how do we get Congress to quit adding dollars to welfare programs?

    Mew

  • commonsenseobserver

    There’s no other way.

    And how to change welfare… well, that should be for the states to decide and pay for.

    The safety net would be best maintained on the state or local level, and that includes Medicaid.

    But if we can’t, we’ll have to tighten eligibility, tackle fraud, streamline payments, consolidates programmes. Create a universal benefit to replace the scattered system we have, and it’d be much easier for welfare to be reformed. And this benefit should not only help people in times of trouble, but also ensure that everyone is better off in work.

    A welfare system must be fair, sustainable, effective and responsible.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Erm… maybe citizens of states?

  • trimulchio

    one reason why Panarin’s prediction did not pan out as he thought it would.

  • acat

    yearly, based on some arcane formula of privately held land, total land area, real estate value, total population, population not in the armed services, etc. etc. .. and let the States figure out how to come up with the money.

    If Rhode Island wants to only have a property tax, that’s their choice.
    If Texas wants to have just property and sales taxes, okay.
    If New York wants to have a property tax, a sales, tax, and an income tax, so be it.

    If Delaware wants to have very favorable corporate bankruptcy laws but charge very high corporate income tax rates, see if they can attract businesses….

    The actual changes matter less than the procedure to enact them, though .. we need to change who’s in Congress… and we do that by identifying and supporting Conservatives.

    Mew

  • snowshooze

    But also, the Federal Government collects proceeds off our oil production.
    Currently, our State oil production is kicking about 35% tax to the State, and 12% to the Federal Government. No, there is more than income taxes going Federal.
    All the other production industries are taxed as well.
    Why send it in and beg back the highway money?
    People think they are getting something for nothing… ( Oh, that project will only cost US 150 million because the Feds are picking up 200 million…) When they just snagged 500 million from us.
    And so the hapless voters approve runaway spending projects…

    No, a little less ” Block Granting ” would be fine by me.

  • acat

    These sound great, but .. what do they look like in the real world?

    What’s “fair” about taking money from working people to pay those who won’t even go look?

    Further, “sustainable” ? The word doesn’t even apply.

    Consider that the birth rate hit a low point in 1972, so there are a lot fewer 40-year-olds today than there were 10 years ago .. and 40-60 are the peak earning point in most peoples’ careers.

    How do you see those 40somethings (and the 30somethings behind them) reacting to the idea that they’re going to be paying for today’s 65-year-olds .. who are going to live longer and longer?

    How is that “sustainable” ?

    Mew

  • commonsenseobserver

    Conseratives understand these problems, and want to solve them.

    Making people work for the dole, ensuring that they are better off in work, and can have a chance to work, preventing waste, fraud, and abuse, raising the retirement age, giving people more control over their own life savings, cutting taxes for working families and individuals – isn’t that fair? Isn’t that sustainable? Isn’t that effective and responsible?

    If these are not, I think we don’t have to talk about a safety net…

  • http://www.rightspeak.net/search/label/-Right%20Wingnut rightwingnut2

    Not this November, but 8 -12 years down the road.

    Hispanics now make up 38% of the population in Texas. – up from 32% in 2000.

    Non Hispanic whites make up only 45% of the population – down from 52% in 2000

    Blacks account for 11% of the population.

    Non-Hispanic whites accounted for only 4% of the growth in population from 2000 – 2010.

    Texas’ population grew 20% from 2000 – 2010. 65% of that growth is Hispanic.

    48% of all Texans under the age of 18 are Hispanics.

    If Texas becomes a reliably blue state, the GOP will never win another national election. If you find that prospect unfathomable, look at California. From 1952 – 1988, the GOP carried the state in every presidential election except one.

    http://www.270towin.com/states/California

  • acat

    is somehow .. fair or conservative?

    No, a simple time limit is sufficient. “You haven’t worked in 6 months, you’re done.”

    And no, given birth rates, there is no way to both cut taxes and maintain benefits. Someone is getting treated unfairly, either the boomers or the children of the ’70s. Pick one.

    Mew

  • ennaneko

    - remind Mexicans they are supposed to be descendants of Catholic Spaniards

    - remind them that they weren’t enslaved

    - remind them that becoming a monolithic liberal voting block will make them ultra lame and predictable

    - remind them that they chose to call themselves LATIN Americans. Latins were civilized people of laws.

    - remind them that illegal immigration is legal and that if they want more Mexicans crossing the border to hire lobbyists to get congress to let more of them to immigrate legally.

    - remind them that they should clear the bad fruit from their own trees