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How Much Will Trump's New York Criminal Case Influence the Presidential Election?

AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, Pool

Manhattan’s hush money case against former President Donald Trump has been all over the news since the trial started. With this week's testimony of adult film actress Stormy Daniels, who is alleged to have slept with the former president, the trial took a more salacious turn.


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Given that the case is clearly a politically motivated effort to influence the outcome of the upcoming presidential election, some have speculated about the impact the trial could possibly have on Trump’s chances of winning a second term in office.

Republicans appear to believe that the effort to prosecute the former president for allegedly misclassifying a hush money payment to Daniels isn’t going to have much of an impact – and they are probably right. However, this might not be true of the other politically motivated prosecution efforts coming down the pike in the future.

Several Republican politicians shared the view that the hush money case won’t amount to much.

“I don’t know what her testimony is,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), a possible vice presidential candidate for Trump, told the Washington Examiner. “I think people for the most part, even many Democrats I talked to, will tell you that this trial in New York is a sham. It’s an embarrassment.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a top Trump surrogate, gave a succinct response when asked if Daniels’s testimony would hurt Trump’s reelection bid: “No.”

House Republicans were no more impressed than their Senate counterparts and downplayed what impact the trial may have.

“If you look at the key players in that, they’re all Democrat operatives or donors to the Democrat party,” said Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), another key Trump acolyte. “So it’s clearly rigged.”

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) also chimed in, saying “Everybody knows that this whole thing is a joke” and that “People are going to move on and look at what’s happening in their lives.”

The report refers to a Reuters-Ipsos poll showing that 64 percent of registered voters believe the charges against the former president are “somewhat serious.” However, PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist Poll found that 45 percent of respondents believe the various prosecution efforts against him are “unfair and designed to obstruct his 2024 presidential campaign.” The same survey revealed that 55 percent were not even following the case.

The Republicans who chimed in on the importance of the hush money case likely have it right. This case isn’t going to mean much when it comes to influencing the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

For starters, nobody cares whether Trump paid hush money to a porn star to cover up his alleged one-night stand with her. Everyone already knows who Trump was before he became president – his indiscretions have all been aired out to the public. Moreover, if he did pay hush money to Daniels, he would be far from the first politician to do something of this nature.

The allegations that he misclassified said payments are also quite weak. The prosecution is relying on the testimony of Daniels, who clearly hates Trump with the fire of a thousand burning suns and his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, who has already been exposed as a liar.

But it is important to note that this trial is just a warmup. Trump’s legal issues are far from over as he faces 91 total charges. The federal charges related to mishandling of documents and other offenses and Fulton County’s election interference case could potentially affect how voters view the former president.

The charges in these cases are far more serious and sensational than the hush money case. Depending on what comes out during these trials, it could influence the outcome of the upcoming race – especially if he is convicted.

Of course, it is also possible that the sheer number of charges and indictments could create fatigue among the voting public. I’ve made this point previously.

What if the Democrats lob so many indictments at Trump that they begin to lose their meaning? In a sense, one could argue that the left is throwing indictments at Trump in the same way they throw the word “racist” at people who disagree with their politics. At this point, the word “racist” doesn’t have nearly the impact it did decades ago. The same thing could happen here, with Democrats diluting the power of these prosecutions by overplaying their hand.

In effect, the left might be bringing about more “indictment fatigue” than “Trump fatigue.” It will not be surprising if Fulton County indicts Trump next week and the country responds with “meh.” Sure, members of the elite media will still wax hysterical about it, but who takes them seriously anymore?

This issue becomes even more pronounced when combined with the reality that everyone, including Stevie Wonder, can clearly see that every single one of these attempts to prosecute Trump is 100 percent motivated by political expediency. The only reason they are coming after the former president is because they do not wish to see him in the White House again after 2024.

If nothing devastating comes from these trials, then it could very well turn the nation against the Democrats who are pushing these efforts to prosecute Trump. Of course, the opposite is also true: If it is revealed that Trump actually committed a horrible crime, it could turn people away from him. Either way, one thing is clear: The Democrats are playing a very dangerous game with the effort to weaponize the criminal justice system against their most feared political opponent.

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