It’s Sunday morning, October 30, one of the final two Sundays before election day. Some day, your children will ask you “who did you vote for?” But they’ll be talking about American Idol. Sorry. Still, it’s an important election, and one sure to result in the most unpopular President of modern times, no matter who wins.
So, on to the terrible news:
Reuters/Ipsos Daily Poll
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
Over the course of the week, Hillary Clinton dropped by slightly less than three, while Trump stayed pretty much the same, ending up with a gain of .9 points. No other big changes to speak of.
Just over a week ago, the dedicated among Trump media and supporters went all in on this poll, touting it “the most accurate” poll of 2012, or just “the most accurate” poll period. At the time, it was showing Trump up during a week when most polls had him down by several points, and one poll hyped on CNN had him down 12. Hillary regained the lead this week, and this morning, she has it still.
Clinton is up by two today, a dip from the previous couple of days, no doubt thanks to the new FBI investigation. But she’s leading by two, which is within the margin of error.
Pew has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by six points in the four way match-up.
- Clinton – 46%
- Trump – 40%
- Johnson – 6%
- Stein – 3%
There’s also this tidbit:
The survey finds considerable evidence of the bitterness unleashed by the presidential campaign. Dating back to 1988, no candidate, Democrat or Republican, has been viewed as more critical of their opponent than is Trump today (the question was not asked in 1992).
For those of us in politics, going negative is part of how you win, but it does seem to leave a bad taste in the mouth. It wouldn’t be surprising to find that this number was affected by Trump’s performance at the Alfred E. Smith charity dinner, either.
ABC News Tracking:
The latest from ABC, released yesterday, shows Clinton with a 3 point lead over Trump.
But the story is how the numbers are moving:
It’s a tale of two electorates in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, with shifts in intended turnout moving a large advantage for Hillary Clinton a week ago to a far tighter 2016 presidential race today.
From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant, given the sample size.
We could call that the Comey effect, but isn’t it better to call it the “what happens when you get caught compromising national security” effect.
LA Times/USC Tracking:
In the latest from this tracker, Donald is up by two over Clinton, at 46 to 44.
As you can see from the trend lines, Trump has been in the lead for most of the life of this tracking poll.
The latest from the Trump-friendly outlet has Hillary up by three over Donald at 44 to 41.
Again we see narrowing of the race in this poll as in almost every other.
The latest from Rasmussen has the candidates in a dead heat. From the poll:
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are dead even in the latest White House Watch survey.
The new national telephone and online survey shows Clinton and Trump each with 45% support among Likely U.S. Voters. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has fallen to a new low of three percent (3%), while Green Party candidate Jill Stein earns two percent (2%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
She has been in a steady decline in Rasmussen’s daily poll. Considering the revelations this weekend, it’s hard to see that trend halting.
Gravis has Hillary up over Trump by an insignificant 1 point in their latest released on Thursday
Normally we only add the national polls here, but some of the state polls are coming out with surprising results. Quinnipiac’s poll released earlier this week showed some devastating news for Donald Trump. Meanwhile, in Utah, where Trump has been unpopular throughout the general and way back through the primaries, Evan McMullin surged ahead, prompting some angry remarks from the “never miss a slight” Donald Trump, not to mention vicious attacks by his media lapdogs.
We’ll have Neil Stevens’ latest Electoral College results tomorrow morning with more on the state by state vote count.
This week the RCP Average for the head-to-head shows Hillary Clinton up 4.6 over Donald Trump, at 47.1 to 42.5. That’s a slight gain for Trump’s numbers, a slight loss for Hillary’s.
AND NOW, for the number of the day. In the four way match-up, the RCP average has Clinton ahead by an insignificant 0.4, with Clinton at 44.7, Trump at 44.3, Johnson at 3.3, and Stein at 1.2.
The private email server is already hurting Hillary in the daily trackers. It’s not an email scandal, it’s a national security scandal, and people realize that. Not to mention the lies, obstruction, “side deals”, lies from the President, complicity of Lynch … well the list goes on. Try as they might, and the Clinton campaign and the press have tried mightily, this doesn’t just go away. And with only a week and change until the election, the inevitable Hillary Clinton finds herself in a squeaker with the disastrous Donald Trump and even, at least in Utah, the earnest Evan McMullin. Because it’s that kind of year. I keep telling you that.
So what’s the terrible news? Gary Johnson’s support is dropping off the map, Stein’s was never there, and everyone continues to accept the premise that we have to pick one of the two dummies.
But the good news is that Hillary could consequences for her actions that will affect her in a way no court wrist slap or governmental reprimand ever would: A nosedive in the polls. Now that’s gotta hurt. Especially against you know who. So keep your eyes open this week. And read RedState.