With a headline screaming “Clinton Losing On Honesty In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania,” the release for the results of a new Quinnipiac University 2016 presidential swing state poll conducted in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania is all bad news for Hillary Clinton. She has lost ground on almost every measure — especially on honesty and moral standards and has lost her 8-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, and the race is too-close-to-call in the three critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:
- Florida: Trump 42 – Clinton 39, compared to a 47 – 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;
- Ohio: Clinton 41 – Trump 41, compared to a 40 – 40 percent tie June 21;
- Pennsylvania – Trump 43 – Clinton 41, compared to a 42 – 41 percent Clinton lead June 21.
Including the third party candidates makes it even worse for Hillary:
- Florida – Trump leads Clinton 41 – 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
- Ohio – Trump at 37 percent to Clinton’s 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
- Pennsylvania – Trump over Clinton 40 – 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
Perhaps the most significant finding in the new poll is that Trump now leads among Independents in all three states:
- Florida – Independent voters shifted from 44 – 35 percent for Clinton last month to 43 – 30 percent for Trump today;
- Ohio – Trump leads 43 – 31 percent among Independent voters;
- Pennsylvania – Trump leads 39 – 36 percent.
This is still a change election which helps Trump over Hillary who is running for Obama’s third term. Respondents in each state agree, by wide margins with the statement, “The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change.” Voters also agree by wide margins that trade agreements with other countries have hurt them and their families’ financial situation.
The polling was conducted June 30 – July 11 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent for Florida and Pennsylvania, and +/- 3.2 percent for Ohio.
This terrible poll for Hillary comes after Team Hillary outspent Team Trump by a 15-to-1 margin, $57 million to $3.6 million in ads. Forty percent of the Hillary advertising money was spent in these three battleground states. Team Hillary should be in full panic mode. No candidate since 1960 has won presidency without carrying at least two of these three states.
According to Politico’s chief polling analyst Steven Shepard, other polls give Hillary an advantage in these three states. POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average, which include the five most-recent polls in each state, gives Clinton a 3.2-point lead in Florida, a 2.8-point edge in Ohio and a larger, 4.6-point advantage in Pennsylvania. Shepard also points out that Quinnipiac’s May polls in the same three states were met by skepticism, but subsequent polls later confirmed them.