President Donald J. Trump, joined by the Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar and Director of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dr. Robert R. Redfield, speaks with reporters during a visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Friday, March 6, 2020, in Atlanta, Ga. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
The trend line in American Coronavirus fatalities might be grounds for some cautious optimism. As of 2359 GMT, March 17, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities was 1.69%. This number has been steadily declining since March 3, when the rate was over 7%.
Starting with this post, Red State will publish a Coronavirus Update that shows the total reported U.S. Cases and total U.S. fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the steady decline of the Mortality Rate. If this trend continues (no guarantee of course) then the M/R should drop below 1% sometime next week…IF this trend continues.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Over time what we hope to see is that line take a more gradual slope and eventually become horizontal.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Coronavirus, there are 1, 2 or three other persons out there with it. For today’s report
M/R = 1.69%
+1 = .85%
+2 = .56%
+3 = .42%
As you can see, given a large number of as yet unidentified and reported Coronavirus cases, our numbers look a whole lot better than advertised.
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this putting themselves at risk.