Wuhan Virus Numbers: Nightly Update April 4, 2020-As Of 2359GMT

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This is the 18th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States. As of 2359Z, the below charts reflect current U.S. Wuhan virus numbers.

Chart One’s data table shows Total Infections, Total Fatalities, and the Mortality Rate. The upper graph, shows the number of NEW infections by date. Hopefully, this will give us a clear view of the infection trend line as more test materials make it into the field and into common use. Today’s number of new infections is 33072, which is 788 more than yesterday. Note that the curve in new infections continues to move to the right. We will be watching this line for the next few days, especially in light of the President’s commentary that the “peak” should come in 2-3 weeks. I believe that we will see some significant positive movement in 7-10 days.

The lower graph shows new U.S. Fatalities. Today, we added 1040 to the total count of American deaths, raising the total to 8444. This increase is 293 fewer than yesterday, a continuing flattening of the curve.

Wuhan Virus Numbers: Nightly Update April 4, 2020-As Of 2359GMT

The second chart shows the U.S. Wuhan Virus Mortality rate. The Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) continues to be well over 2% today ending at 2.72%. This is not good, but is likely a reflection of the Fatalities lag, compared to New Infections.

Wuhan Virus Numbers: Nightly Update April 4, 2020-As Of 2359GMT

This chart contains a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:

M/R = 2.72%

+1 = 1.36%
+2 = 0.91%
+3 = 0.68%

Midcourse Update: For those of you who have been following this series from the beginning, this might seems like old news. This is for folks who might have recently tuned in. At this point in time, we have a number of moving parts. The first part is “new infections/total infections.” As I noted in the very beginning, these numbers would radically increase as more test materials made it into the field and actual use.

As this happened, the Mortality Rate dropped precipitously as the “denominator” in the Fatalities/Infections ratio got bigger. However, as I noted earlier, because this disease has about a 14 day cycle give or take, fatalities will be a lagging number. They would be expected to rise 14 days after a spike in New Infections, thus raising the M/R. The M/R, will also lag behind New Infections, once that number peaks and begins to decline…also on a 14 day delay.

Continuing to add to the confusion, are the folks who never had symptoms or had such minor ones, they never got tested and their case added to the denominator. Taking this into account, when this is all said and done, I see this ending up fairly close to our yearly flu numbers.

The Red State Team hopes this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments. Please comment on the value of the “New Infections” chart. Please understand, that although I’d like to include many more charts, time constraints make this impractical. If there is a current chart that would be better replaced by another type, please holler.

Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.

Below is the screenshot of the Worldometers site, showing the “as of” timestamp for the data in this post.

Wuhan Virus Numbers: Nightly Update April 4, 2020-As Of 2359GMT

 

Mike Ford
Mike Ford, a retired Infantry Officer, writes on Military, Foreign Affairs and occasionally dabbles in Political and Economic matters. 
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