Well, three polls confirm it now. The post-Biden, pre-DNC polls all show a bump-up for McCain, or a bump-down for Obama.
Gallup has McCain up 2 for Sat.-Mon. polling. Rasmussen has it tied for those three days, and CNN has it tied for Saturday and Sunday.
All this polling occured before Michelle Obama’s serviceable speech last night.
Expect, of course, these poll numbers to move significantly in Obama’s direction over the next few days, especially as many of Clinton’s supporters come back home to the Democratic Party. But my gut tells me that Obama’s average post-convention lead (which will be clear in polls coming out on Sunday and Monday) will be only 5-7 points–easily surmountable.