While most polls for the Pennsylvania Senate are showing Republican Pat Toomey with wide leads anywhere from 7% to 10%, PPP,  a democratic polling firm released a poll today showing Democrat Joe Sestak leading by +1%.

How is this possible you might ask?  Considering Toomey has made no major blunders, and the national climate continues to favor Republicans, it seems it is not.

PPP last polled this race in mid August, in which they found Toomey up 9%.  So what accounts for this big change?  Looking at the poll crosstabs, it becomes abundantly clear:

In August they polled:

46% Democrats, 44 Republicans and 9% Indepedants

47% Voted for John McCain, 46% for Barack Obama.

Compare this to the most recent poll:

48% Democrats, 41% Republicans and 11% Indepedants

45% Voted for John McCain, 49% for Barack Obama.

So in short, its pretty simple; they just polled more democrats, less republicans, more Obama voters, less McCain voters, and then decided the race was now a “tossup”.

Never mind the fact that Rasmussen had Toomey up 10% just a week ago.  Perhaps the race has tightened since, but to call this a toss up is a complete joke.