Here are two excellent articles filled with analysis based on the historical record of past elections. I believe that McCain will NOT be able to win this if the election is about him, he can only win if he makes it clear to the American people that Obama is an unacceptable choice on many levels.
The JUDGEMENT aspect needs to be hammered. Obama admits he has no experience, no real legislative accomplishments. But he maintains his judgement is superior to McCain.
Is that true? Reverend Wright. Father Pfleger. Attended Million Man March with Farrakhan. Snorted cocaine at the same age McCain was at the Naval Academy and flying fighter jets. Argued vociferously that the Surge would fail and the war was lost. Jim Johnson. Rashid Khalidi. Abu Albunimah. “Undivided Jerusalem”
The list goes on. Add to it!!
The good news for Republicans is that Obama can be beaten. The bad news is that the McCain campaign has embarked on a course that — although it has some of the right elements — seems likely to fail.
McCain would be most comfortable running in accord with his particular notions of political virtue while emphasizing character, national security, and a few pet causes such as earmarks. If he wants to win, he has to leave his comfort zone. He should take a page from Hillary Clinton. She did not, of course, defeat Obama, but she road-tested a strategy that cost him support among crucial constituencies — and that strategy is even better suited to McCain’s general-election run than it was to her primary campaign.
Looking back over the last 40 years, the presidential campaign that most closely resembles this year’s is the contest between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter in 1976. The Republicans were the incumbent presidential party that year, as they are now, but the Democrats had a big advantage in party identification — on the order of 49 percent to 26 percent then, far more than today.
The Republican president who had been elected and re-elected in the last two campaigns, Richard Nixon, had dismal favorability ratings, far lower than George W. Bush’s. His name could scarcely be mentioned at the Republican National Convention. The Democratic nominee was a little-known outsider, with an appeal that was based on the idea that he could transcend the nation’s racial divisions. Jimmy Carter, a governor from the Deep South, had placed a portrait of Martin Luther King Jr. in the state Capitol in Atlanta.