This is an update of a post I did a couple weeks ago before the polls caught up to my thinking. I might add that I was ridiculed and ignored when I posted the first installment of this. I guess the worm has turned as I predicted…hmmm!
Gallup has now proven that the dire predictions of the imminent doom of the Republican Party are not only premature, to the contrary, the opposite is truly possible!
I would add that those dire predictions have been used as an excuse for the sorry leadership the Republican Party has gotten from Congressman Tom Cole at the NRCC, John Ensign at the NRSC and Chairman of the RNC Mike Duncan.
It is my not so humble opinion that given the facts as they currently exist on the ground; if the Republican Party does not win back control of the Congress; if the Republican Party does not put John McGenius and Saracuda in the White House; if the Republican Party loses a single seat in either house of Congress: it will not be because the Democrats won anything, or because this is traditionally an election that favors the party out of the White House! It will not be because the American People rejected Conservatism or all the other mind numbing excuses to do nothing….it will be because of the tin ears of those we have in leadership and their steadfast refusal to do what it takes to win!
The blame will lie exclusively with those I’ve mentioned in Party and Congressional Leadership and with the McCain Campaign because of the atmosphere of pessimism that has been birthed by the left of center Washington elite of both parties and trumpeted by the so called objective press!
I’m sick of the Conventional wisdom that the Republican Party is doomed to lose in a landslide because it’s always been that way! This is an atmosphere I might add that has been nursed lovingly by the weasels in leadership who refuse to do anything to change their sorry condition in the hopes that they can escape the blame for the debacle they are creating! Well…I’ve got news for them…it ain’t gonna fly if I have any say about it!
According to an article from Gallup detailing a dramatic change in the polls just before John McGenius announced his stunningly brilliant selection of Sarah Palin for VPOTUS.:
First, prior to the Republican Convention:
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
That’s within the margin of error folks…and it shows a proclivity of voters to vote for the Republican on an almost equal footing with that to vote for the Democrat. And again, That’s before the Republican VP was announced prior to the convention and the specific candidates do or say anything such as what I suggested in my earlier post.
Second, After the Republican Convention:
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.As Gallup’s long-term “generic ballot” trend shows, the Democrats held a sizable lead on this measure from the time they won back control of Congress in the fall of 2006 through last month. If the current closer positioning of the parties holds, the structure of congressional preferences will be similar to most of the period from 1994 through 2005, when Republicans won and maintained control of Congress.
Third, Congress’s current approval rating of 18%, (up from 9% recently) which is unheard of in the history of polling, signals an anti incumbent sentiment that could sweep Republicans back into power in breathtaking numbers if this is played right.
Forth, it get’s even better! Gallup’s most recent poll shows that only 36% of voters believe their specific member of Congress should be reelected. That, my friends, is way below the 51% or more that existed in 1994 and 2006.
So…Tom Cole, John Ensign and Mike Duncan…You’ve been given the Ried, Pelosi, Obama triumvirate’s heads on a platter. In fact, they’re on the platter despite you! The question now is…what will you do with this opportunity? Are we going to continue whining that Republicans should run for the hills this election cycle? Can we expect even more proclamations from Cole that this is a Democrat year and Republicans will be lucky if they only lose seats in the single digits? Can we expect another pity party from John Ensign because his Senate Colleagues refuse to open up their checkbooks to help those currently up for reelection in the Senate…or are we going to fight to win which is what you were put in leadership to do in the first place?!
Ohh and John McCain…Giving credit where credit is due…Since you have shaken this election to it’s core with unapologetic conservative performances at Saddleback and with your unapologetic pick of a Reaganite Governor to share your ticket…AND…Since Independents are moving your way in spite of…or because of these performances…are you really going to ruin it with talk of appointing Democrats to your Cabinet….or signing on to the gang of 16 capitulation to the Democrats on drilling? Will you be out there trumpeting how great it would be to saddle this economy with global cap and trade legislation? Or will you stick with the one that brought you to the ball and win this thing for all of us?