I have been called upon to demonstrate how I get that there is a less than 1% chance of Trump winning the nomination. Steve Deace said I was either “Mad Smart or just Mad“. Others are confused at some of the terms used, some of the results. This will be the clearest document yet and will prove my crazy mad smart efforts. This is by all needs going to be VERY LONG. If you want the cliff notes skip to the bottom 😉This chart shows that Trump averages poorly in polls to results versus Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz outperforms by an average of 6% to the Trump 1.45% average. Additionally Ted Cruz really does far better in conservative States. That is important!
As the picture above shows, Trump does not usually do well in results versus how he was polled. Often he is only winning in Liberal States compared to Ted Cruz. The Ted Cruz break even point to far out performing the polls is where we start seeing mostly conservative States. The one of the most conservative of this list, Idaho, is where he does the best of them all.
The most Liberal of States are tending to be poor ones for Ted Cruz. However libertarian leaning States tend to be amazing for Ted Cruz. That is very important in our analysis.Ted Cruz does significantly better in more conservative States, and far less in liberal States
Next I must clarify some terms.
Brokered Convention means a Presidential Nominee is named from outside of those who ran for President this election cycle.
Contested Convention means a Presidential Nominee is named from those who ran for President this election cycle.
A Bound Delegate is a position where the person assigned to the position is required by State Law to vote 1, 2 or even 3 times for a specific candidate. This is usually specific to who won the bound position.
An Unbound Delegate is a position where the person assigned to the position can decide who they will vote for starting at the first vote and going on until someone is named the nominee.
A Pledged Delegate is a person, bound or unbound, who has decided they are supporting a specific candidate when the laws allow them to do so. Pledged Delegates will play an important part in our math.
Precinct Committee Person is a position, which in some areas has a different title, where you have run for, or been selected for, office as a member of the party. This is not to be considered the same as a registered voter for a party, this is the inside stuff. There is a lot of these positions unfilled through the nation (I am a national advocate of the PCP system, the more the better!) so in some places taking over a local party is merely a matter of organizing fast and hard (Like Ted Cruz does). These are the people who vote in local conventions for a large sum of the delegates.
Next we need to have a source for all the rules, all the current delegate distributions, and so forth. Oh hey look here we go at www.thegreenpapers.comThey have some errors, like Louisiana shows 5 Delegates uncommitted, when in fact those are ‘unpledged’ to Ted Cruz.However they are considered the best source for information on the Primaries and Caucuses.
This site is considered the go to site for anyone who needs to check on rules, data, and such. NOTHING BETTER OUT THERE!!!
The next step is going to be to determine the factual count of Delegates for every candidate, and to determine how many unpledged are possibly up for grabs. I will use the Green Papers site and correct for errors and adjust for reasonable assumptions.
First error is Louisiana where Ted Cruz secured the 5 individuals listed as uncommitted, they are pledged delegates. The second major error is North Dakota where Ted Cruz got a slate of 18 delegates through and where 4 more are considered ‘strong Cruz’. The third issue is Wyoming, where the table was run by Ted Cruz, party bosses when they see this many of their Precinct Committee Persons vote for one candidate are not going to go against their members wishes without a lot of prying. One additional issue is that Wyoming had one of their top 3 Executive Committee spots open and no one has been issued there yet. This will be for Ted Cruz.
Minnesota has released the Marco Rubio wins there and the 17 are for Ted Cruz. Oklahoma released 12 and they are expected for Ted Cruz. New Hampshire released 2, they are unbound and unknown. Next we have Colorado, where 3 delegates are listed in the Available slot. Party leadership will vote Ted Cruz, they like being at the top after all.
Therefore after these modifications we have a changed summary of the results to: They have some errors, like Louisiana shows 5 Delegates uncommitted, when in fact those are ‘unpledged’ to Ted Cruz.. Additionally we see Rubio 142, Kasich 149, Bush 4, Carson 9, Fiorina 1, Paul 1, and Huckabee 1. Finally in the “Uncommitted” and “Available” categories of the States that have voted we see 30 delegates. This includes the various Territories.
Current Score exactly: Ted Cruz 639, Donald Trump 847
This leaves 681 Uncommitted (not yet voted) delegates and 3 available delegates from Oklahoma. Also the 2 unbound from New Hampshire,for a total of 686 delegates that are available in one form or another to be grabbed in the convention. NOTE: This means that Ted Cruz is not, under this math, mathematically challenged out, but is probability based mathematically prevented. However so is Donald Trump as explained later on.
However Marco Rubio has strongly implied he is against Donald Trump getting the election. He has provided strong words for Ted Cruz. I am projecting, yes predicting, that Rubio will formally end his campaign if it helps Ted Cruz in a significant manner. Under this projection I am giving 1 delegate (Hawaii) to Donald Trump, the 23 Delegates from Puerto Rico remain for Rubio (I see no provisions for them becoming unbound if he cancels his campaign), I am giving Donald Trump 3 in Alaska and Ted Cruz 2, and the remainder go to Ted Cruz. This is based upon the success that Ted Cruz has had in securing the Delegates in various States (see below for details). This is an additional 145 delegates for Ted Cruz and additional 4 delegates for Donald Trump.
The new total under that modification is Ted Cruz 784 to Trump 851. Additionally we see Kasich 149, Bush 4, Carson 9, Fiorina 1, Paul 1, and Huckabee 1, and I do not see a significant chance that these individuals plan to “terminate” their campaign prior to the convention.
Recently Marco Rubio “softened his position on Trump”, I believe this is in line with my changes where I am trying to win Trump supporters to Ted Cruz. We need unity to defeat Hillary, further agony is not going to help that.
Score after Rubio “Terminates” is Ted Cruz 784 to Trump 851
NOTE: There is a difference between suspending a campaign and terminating a campaign. Suspension allows you to continue fundraising, it allows you to still have your delegate(s) for the requisite number of votes, and you can still spend campaign money in manners you wish. A Terminated campaign loses all delegates (except Puerto Rico), is no longer allowed to raise funds, and is restricted in the types of spending they can do of any remaining funds.
To win Donald Trump needs 386 delegates from the remaining States. I will break down the States into three categories, Trump, Mixed, and Cruz.
The following States are considered to be wins or to be strongly leaning for Donald Trump:
Rhode Island 19
New Jersey 51
Delaware and New Jersey are winner Take all. The rest are proportional to an extent. I expect Ted Cruz to reasonably secure 20 delegates leaving the rest to split between Kasich and Trump. Kasich predicted to win 24 by me. This is based upon the current polling (or in the case of old polls, modifying). Therefore Trump wins 108 delegates.
Trump leaning States: Ted Cruz 20, Trump 108, Kasich 24
The following States are Mixed, this can mean the popular vote goes to one candidate and delegates to another, or that they are “Contested”
Pennsylvania 17 + 54
West Virginia 34
On this list we have a number of notes. The Delegates in Pennsylvania are predicted strongly for Ted Cruz, there is word that Kasich is also doing well there. However Trump is not favored to win the 54. Trump is predicted to win the popular vote in Pennsylvania. I am assigning 54 to Ted Cruz and 17 to Trump from Pennsylvania. A recent poll shows Trump edging both of them out at 36%. This supports my 17 delegate assignment.
Indiana awards 30 as a WTA bonus to the top winner, the rest are proportional. Three recent polls are available and Trump is due to win the 30. The rest are likely to be 11 Trump, 9 Kasich, 7 Cruz.
West Virginia is favored for the Trump campaign, however the Trump campaign has made some extreme errors in West Virginia. You need to read this to believe this: (link). In short I am going to be forced to predict that Trump gets only half of the delegates and that Ted Cruz gets the other half. So 17 Delegates each.
California… I will save for last! It’s own category by surprise! Just because it is the linchpin you might say
Mixed Current Standings: Ted Cruz 78, Trump 75, Kasich 9
The following States are considered to be wins or to be strongly leaning for Ted Cruz:
New Mexico 24
South Dakota 29
Montana and Nebraska are the easiest, both are Winner Take All and there is little doubt Ted Cruz wins these States. South Dakota is more a leans Ted Cruz State, but it is also Winner Take All. New Mexico is a Caucus State that already leans to Ted Cruz.
Oregon is my land. The Oregon Cruz team has secured of the five major divisions of the Republican Party here a total of about 80% of the leadership. The status is so severe that a Trump supporting candidate for Governor, and another who supports him who is running for Senate, will not under any circumstances announce said support. Meanwhile we have gained the Endorsement of a candidate for Senate (Mark Callahan who is also a Co-Chair for the Ted Cruz campaign, help him out! (DONATE!)), a preliminary offered endorsement by a Governor Candidate, and we have secured the only State Representative and Senator endorsements offered to anyone as of yet (I suspect a few will go to Kasich, none will go to Trump in the final days).
The fact that the Libertarians are agreeable (most of them) to Ted Cruz means Oregon has a real chance to turn red as well if we can get funds for candidates. This combination makes a win by Trump statistically severely low. I am allotting 6 delegates as his best case scenario in Oregon, and the rest to Ted Cruz.
Washington State has shown that it is unfriendly to Donald Trump as well. The Pacific Northwest would be devastated under a Trump created import/export tax (Also known as an Tariff, which will result in a Trade Tax war) and the Seattle region the most of it all. The loss of Jobs in Washington could exceed 10% of current employment under a Trump administration. I allow that some will still want Trump even with such damages to their own State. I also note the Washington State PCP system has effectively shut Trump out in all the votes that have happened and I have word this trend will only continue. Therefore I am assigning a maximum of 10 delegates for Trump from the 44 for Washington.
Ted Cruz gains 172 Delegates and Trump gains 16.
Note that at this point Trump has 199 Delegates assigned under this document. He needs 349. This is why I am saving California for last. Oh and Ted Cruz has gained 170 delegates. At this point Kasich is irrelevant. California can go heavy for Cruz or Trump, I allow for either result. Popularity versus calculated moves. I often predict 100 for Ted Cruz, but allow for Trump to win 100-120 delegates. I will allow Trump to win 72 delegates for my example.
Trump comes up short therefore by 115 Delegates. Now there is 41 delegates out there to grab, and some of these guys will love a candidate who pays their expenses for being a Delegate (Expenses are legal, extra payments is illegal). I can see Trump flying his personal jet to pick up Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands delegates and him wooing them if he thought they would help him win. I can see him also making fuel stops (and breaks for “maintenance”) in Vegas, and some other place where he will woo them further. But Trump is unlikely to secure all 41 via even these tactics. Therefore I am assigning only 25 delegates from this remaining pool to Donald Trump (for the example of this effort). This leaves Donald Trump short by 90 delegates. Note these are not included in the final tally because in all likelihood Trump will realize the futility of this move.
This is why the Trump team is so desperate to say they have Indiana (*EDIT* Indiana is secured) and Pennsylvania secured. However the (edit 54) delegates there that won’t be theirs is going to cripple the Trump effort. This is, I note, where the Trump team will call foul the loudest, at this juncture they will all realize that Trump has lost the fight.
Can Trump bridge the 90 delegate shortage? Not likely. To win a State that he is not favored in is a reasonable possibility. For instance he might win South Dakota. But to start winning multiple States that are not likely his starts to increase the total difficulty. If we presume values for the likelihood that Ted Cruz wins a given State, and visa versa that Trump could win it, we start to see that Trump would need to pull a minimum of 4 major upsets to secure his nomination. The odds of one upset might be 30%, the odds of two might be as high as 20%, three would be far more difficult out of 6 States therefore he now has a 8% maybe (These previous numbers are not mathematical, but presented as examples). However 4 ‘coups’ would be mathematically daunting, and I assign a realistic chance of under 1% of that occurring (That is my experts opinion on the subject).
The more realistic “coup” scenario is that Trump can increase his numbers in Oregon and Washington, take one or two winner Take All States and still come up short.
Now there is a slight possibility that Trump does better in “His States”, which could help him in later States, but with a maximum of 44 delegates to win by utterly getting 100% (not happening) there is little hope there for significant relief. Even doing better in West Virginia and his States, and securing two States with coups is going to be beyond his campaigns abilities.
Realistically I am assigning Ted Cruz the 100 from California in my final calculations because at that point people will want the winner to be chosen by a higher margin. At that point Ted Cruz is the nearly guaranteed winner of a Contested Convention (see below). Given the 75 Delegate difference Trump may try for a heavy hand in California. If he can secure 25 extra it would significantly increase his odds of winning.
I will note that they started selecting Delegates late and opened their office only recently, while the Ted Cruz campaign had offices and volunteers in most regions. I am assigning Ted Cruz 100, Trump 72.
Final Score: Trump 1123 Delegates, Cruz 1154 Delegates
Yes that would mean Ted Cruz would also have a plurality of delegates. Part of what also needs to be examined is the trend for Ted Cruz to win above the standard polling. This makes it harder for Trump to win those States that are bound for Ted Cruz.
There is a reason I used this diagram as well. The fact is that Ted Cruz does significantly better in conservative States, even his results to polling reflect that. Trump would be at a natural disadvantage and then he would suffer the Ted Cruz effect as well. His ability to defy the odds is not statistically sound. He will lose the majority or all of those contests.
No where do we find a lopsided victory like we find here. Donald Trump has not done well in the Delegate fight. In some States he has secured a number of pledged delegates, such as Michigan, but in others Ted Cruz has literally walked away with all of the delegates being pledged to him.
It is important to note that some States are designed so that the candidate can assign the delegates he wins from a Slate he submits, and that some States the delegates are directly elected. Wisconsin for example is a Candidate Slate State and West Virginia is an Elected Delegate State.
I will attempt to demonstrate that Ted Cruz has essentially got the required number to be nominated via this portion of my documentary.
First I want to say that I get inside information from my sources. For instance I get information on S. Carolina from a friend who is very active in the politics there. I also get information about Oregon, Montana, Wisconsin, and various other States via friends and contacts. As a growing ‘celebrity’ I am also getting unsolicited information from people about some of the States I may not have good contacts in, which surprised me when it started happening, but now I just roll with it. So if I call a State under this it should be considered to be an “Informed Decision”. I will note if I lack information or if the call is a prediction. Some of this will also be “Not Trump” which does not necessarily mean 100% support for Cruz.
Let us start with the obvious States:
North Dakota 22 pledged to Ted Cruz
Colorado 34 pledged to Ted Cruz
Florida 99 pledged to Marco Rubio
Ohio 66 pledged to John Kasich
New York 95 pledged to Donald Trump
Louisiana 28 pledged to Ted Cruz, 18 to Donald Trump
Wisconsin 36 Ted Cruz, 6 Donald Trump
Oregon 28 Ted Cruz
Washington 44 Ted Cruz or Not Trump
Pennsylvania 54 to 71 Ted Cruz
Indiana 30 to 57 Ted Cruz
Texas 155 Ted Cruz
South Carolina 40+ Ted Cruz
South Dakota 29 Ted Cruz
Tennessee 58 Cruz (link)
New Jersey 51 Chris Christie
New Hampshire 3 Cruz 11 Trump
Michigan 22 Ted Cruz, 20 Trump
Iowa 29 Ted Cruz
Idaho (Projection) 32 Ted Cruz
Georgia 32 Ted Cruz, 3 Trump (1 Kasich, others unknown)
Oklahoma 3 for Ted Cruz (rest currently waiting the May 14th results)
Virginia 4 Ted Cruz, 2 Donald Trump
Alabama 13 Ted Cruz 36 Trump (Direct election of Delegates)
This is 696 Delegates for Ted Cruz versus 194 for Donald Trump. I note that California is a Candidate Delegate Assignment State (Though Trump may have some unforced errors there reducing his count) so Ted Cruz is likely to pick up 100 delegates there as well.
NOTE: With a few exceptions Donald Trump does not exhibit the ability to get delegates from States that do not allow him to control assignment from his wins. In fact 144 of the Trump delegates are from this method.
Known Delegate Count: Ted Cruz 696 Delegates Donald Trump 194 Delegates
Please note that these are known, aka I could identify the wins, delegates. Some States, especially Virginia for example, I do not have information on other delegates inside that State.
I have inside information on an at minimum additional 20 delegates for Ted Cruz, however those individuals wish to not be included nor do they wish any reference to their State due to the danger of Trump supporters doing violence to them. I project that due to the various trends that Ted Cruz has currently secured in excess of 860 delegates and Trump is nearing 260 delegates. This also means after California has voted that there is no reasonable way for a brokered convention to happen.
The current delegate allotment and predicted delegates means that already there is no chance of a brokered convention.
An example of some of the dates that States will formally decide their delegate positions.
Utah April 23rd
Virginia May 21
Vermont TODAY April 21st
Rhode Island ELECTED DIRECTLY
Oklahoma May 14th but already Ted Cruz +3
New Mexico 21 May
Nevada 15 May
Nebraska 14 May
Montana 14 May
Missouri 21 May
Mississippi 14 May
Minnesota 21 May
Maine 23 April
Maryland 14 May
Massachusetts 25 May
Now many of these are actually won well before the State Convention. If local conventions overwhelmingly elect one candidates supporters that candidate will win the State Convention.
Out of this list we can tentatively identify potential trends, Utah, Nebraska, Montana, and Oklahoma for instance are extremely likely to nominate Ted Cruz slates to the Cleveland Convention. Based upon the various States I project an additional 400 delegates will be pledged to Ted Cruz at minimum. This would be 1260 delegates total with today’s numbers of estimated delegates. It is possible however that Ted Cruz will not get 1237 on even a third ticket (vote) at Cleveland. If this happens, and if Rubio has gone “All in” for Ted Cruz, and if the Rubio supporters are ok with it, then the 99 Delegates Rubio has garnered for Florida would push Ted Cruz over the finish line for sure. However to be honest, given the efficiency of the Ted Cruz ground game, the best ever known mind you, I completely expect that Ted Cruz wins on 2nd or 3rd ticket without additional support.
Predicted MINIMUM for Ted Cruz is 1260 delegates for the Contested Convention
As stated earlier, I have declared that mathematically Ted Cruz is the nominee, there is a 99%+ chance of this occurring. The odds of a Trump win is less than 1%. The math is certain, we only await for the News Media to realize it and the Trump team.
Trump lost to the best candidate in over 100 years, there is no shame in that.
My original document on Facebook had some errors, yesterday was a hard hard day for me as I was still recovering from the shock of losing my grandma and of being afflicted with a severe stomach bug. I have corrected the errors I found in the document so this one is error free.
In Oregon we are trying to get some candidates to win, this is my first time supporting them outside of Facebook. I am trying to get some donors to merely consider these two candidates as Oregon has achieved a level of unity not seen in a long time inside our ranks. We could change red in a number of positions.
First we have Mark Callahan, a Ted Cruz Co-Chair in Oregon who is running for US Senate against Ron Wyden. Yes that Ron Wyden. Mark Callahan is a gifted speaker but he has no large backing of funds due to the US Presidential race sucking it dry here in Oregon. http://callahanfororegon.com/ He would appreciate any and all help you can give.
Dennis Richardson ran for Governor in 2014, he nearly won the contest except with great irony the conservative counties stayed home. Dennis Richardson is a local conservative who would be in position to draw our State voting districts in 2020 if we can win his position. He has a great team and is a serious contender, but anything helps. Donating to him could help turn Oregon red. http://dennisrichardson.com/