In the 2018 midterms, as everyone is aware, the GOP lost control of the House to the Democrats. In 2020, a net swing of 18 districts in favor of the Republicans would give them control again. We are way out from Election Day 2020, but from the looks of things, the GOP is looking as if they are up for the fight.
One of my biggest criticisms about the GOP is their refusal or failure to fight for every district- all 435 of them. Many times, not a single Republican will venture into the ring. Many Democratic incumbents go unchallenged whatsoever unless they face a primary challenger in their own party. While the chances of victory may be slim to none in certain districts and realizing there is only so much money to go around in support of GOP candidates, the failure of Republicans to step up- a de facto surrender- is not going to win the hearts and minds of voters.
California is a perfect example. Here, the state uses a “non-partisan” primary system where the top two vote getters advance to the general election regardless of votes, winning percentage, or party. In many instances since the state adopted this method, the Democrats have essentially flooded the primary pool of candidates in the hopes of forcing a Democrat vs. Democrat general election.
The following list shows where the GOP lost seats in 2018 and whether there are any Republican challengers at this point in the game with the caveat that a lot can change between now and any individual state’s filing deadlines:
- AZ-2 (Ann Kirkpatrick) has drawn 4 GOP opponents; Cook +3 GOP
- CA-10 (Josh Harder) has drawn 4 GOP opponents; Cook +1 GOP
- CA-25 (Katie Hill) has drawn 5 GOP opponents; Cook +1 GOP
- CA-39 (Gil Cisneros) has drawn 1 GOP opponent; Cook +5 GOP
- CA-45 (Katie Porter) has drawn 7 GOP opponents; Cook +7 GOP
- CA-48 (Harley Rouda) has drawn 4 GOP opponents; Cook +7 GOP
- CA-49 (Mike Levin) has drawn 2 GOP opponents; Cook +4 GOP
- CO-6 (Jason Crow) has drawn NO GOP opponents; Cook +1 Democrat
- FL-26 (Debbie Powell) has drawn 2 GOP opponents; Cook +1 GOP
- FL-27 (Donna Shalala) has drawn 1 GOP opponent; Cook +2 GOP
- GA-6 (Lucy McBath) has drawn 5 GOP opponents; Cook +14 GOP
- IL-6 (Sean Casten) has drawn 1 GOP opponent; Cook +4 GOP
- IL-14 (Lauren Underwood) has drawn 4 GOP opponents; Cook +5 GOP
- IA-1 (Abby Finkenheimer) has drawn 3 GOP opponents; Cook +5 Democrat
- IA-3 (Cindy Axne) has drawn 4 GOP opponents; Cook rated even
- KS-3 (Shanice Davids) has drawn NO GOP opponents; Cook +6 GOP
- ME-2 (Jared Golden) has drawn NO GOP opponents; Cook rated +2 Democrat
- MI-8 (Elissa Slotkin) has drawn NO GOP opponents; Cook rated +2 GOP
- MN-2 (Angie Craig) has drawn NO GOP opponents; Cook rated +2 GOP
- NJ-2 (Jeff Van Drew) has drawn 1 GOP opponent; Cook rated +1 Democrat
- NJ-3 (Andy Kim) has drawn NO GOP opponent; Cook rated +1 GOP
- NJ-7 (Tom Malinowski) has drawn 3 GOP opponents; Cook rated +6 GOP
- NJ-11 (Mike Sherrill) has drawn NO GOP opponents; Cook rated +6 GOP
- NM-2 (Xichitl Small) has drawn 2 GOP opponents; rated +5 GOP
- NY-11 (Max Rose) has drawn 2 GOP opponents; Cook rated +2 GOP
- NY-19 (Antonio Delgado) has drawn NO GOP opponent; Cook rated +1 Democrat
- NY-22 (Anthony Brandisi) has drawn 2 GOP opponents; Cook rated +3 GOP
- OK-5 (Kendra Horn) has drawn 1 GOP opponent; Cook rated +20 GOP
- SC-1 (Joe Cunningham) has drawn 3 GOP opponents; Cook rated +11 GOP
- TX-7 (Lizzie Fletcher) has drawn 3 GOP opponents; Cook rated +13 GOP
- TX-32 (Collin Allred) has drawn 2 GOP opponents; Cook rated +10 GOP
- UT-4 (Ben McAdams) has drawn NO GOP opponents; Cook rated +16 GOP
- VA-2 (Elaine Luria) has drawn NO GOP opponents; Cook rated +2 GOP
- VA-7 (Abigail Spanberger) has drawn 2 GOP opponents; Cook rated +10 GOP
- WA-8 (Kim Schrier) has drawn 1 GOP opponent; Cook rated +1 GOP
In 11 of these 35 districts, no Republican has entered the fray as of this point in time. However, in 18 of 24 districts where Republicans have declared their candidacy, there are multiple candidates. It is also interesting to note that in those districts listed above, Donna Shalala (FL-27) faces a Democratic primary opponent. Further, 29 of those 35 districts are rated Republican by Cook with a 30th rated even. The average Democratic rated district is only +2 meaning it is achievable.
And how does the gruesome threesome of Tlaib, Omar and Ocasio-Cortez fare? Tlaib faces no primary or GOP opposition thus far, Omar has drawn a Republican challenger, while Her Highness in NY-14 has drawn 3 GOP opponents and two Democratic primary challengers.
If the Republicans want to win back the House in 2020 and they are serious about it, there is certainly opportunity. The first order of business is getting viable candidates out there to challenge 2018’s Democratic victors. The second order of business is to wreak as much havoc on the Democratic Party as possible by exposing them for the extreme Leftist party they have become. For example, in CA-12, represented by Nancy Pelosi, she has drawn four fellow Democrats into the primary. Yes- chances are she will prevail and advance to the general election, but why not have some fun and interject oneself into that “non-partisan” primary?
Let’s champion her opponents like Shahid Buttar, cold-blooded socialist who declared that Pelosi and the Clintons are all in for capitalism. Or Tom Gallagher, another opponent whose sole desire is a Democrat vs. Democrat general election where he would represent the Bernie Bros and Pelosi the old guard. Stephen Jaffe, another Bernie Bro should be taken advantage of, or how about another woman like DeAnna Lorraine? Let’s see Lorraine and Pelosi out-feminist one another! Let’s have some fun with James Dillon, AOC’s opponent in the Democratic primary in NY-14. See where he stands on the AOC-Amazon debacle that cost her constituents an estimated 25,000 jobs. There is also Badrun Khan as a primary opponent- a FEMALE MUSLIM. Although her chances are very slim (see does not even have a website at this point), it would be interesting to see how AOC’s intersectionalism extends against a Bengali, female Muslim. Will Rashida and Ilhan rush to her defense, or will their common religion figure into the equation? You never know- one of the three Republicans can make some inroads, OR we could be spared another two years of Her Highness’ Twitter nonsense.
Except in a few instances, this writer sees life in GOP challenges for the House in 2020. There is still lots of time for more Republicans to declare their candidacy especially in places like Kansas and Oklahoma and those other districts with high GOP Cook ratings. Assuming Republicans do not shoot themselves in the foot come November 2020, the House is within reach.