The upshot: According to the NYT/Siena, Trump is down by 10 points. The margin of error is between 4.1 and 4.6 points (a pretty big margin of error). Nonetheless, it looks like Trump is in big trouble.
But is he really? Before laying out why the Trump campaign says “no,” let me lay out why I personally think he might not be. The short version: Northeastern Pennsylvania (NEPA).
Let’s start with a regional breakdown. As Ben Forstate, a PA maps guy, notes on Twitter:
PA Biden +10! (50/40)
The Times also broke the state into ReGioNs!: Allegheny: Biden +34 (63/29) Eastern PA: Biden +1 (44/43) Northeast PA: Biden +13(!) (48-35) Philly: Biden +60 (75/15) Philly Burbs: Biden +18 (53/18) Rest of PA: Trump +20 (39/59) https://t.co/wFkjHulJy9
The districts Weigel is referring to are those currently occupied by Rep. Susan Wild and Rep. Matt Cartwright.
According to 270towin, in 2016, Hillary Clinton only won Wild’s district by a whole 1.1 point.
And Trump won Cartwright’s by 9.5 points.
Biden ahead by 13 there now? Well, if he is, as Weigel points out, Trump’s goose is truly cooked. But that would be a mighty, mighty big swing from 2016. Would both the campaign and the NRCC have this so wrong? It seems unlikely.
Of course, the Allegheny number also signals a big – probably implausibly big- swing for Biden. As National Journal editor Alex Clearfield tweets:
That Allegheny number is big for Biden. Clinton won the county 56-40, which was in line with Obama's wins. He's got the Mt. Lebanon vote and the towns along the Monongahela/Ohio. https://t.co/NZ3fEqv5gX
So this poll is saying that when Clinton and Obama were up by 16 or so points in the region, Biden is up by 34.
Clinton was a truly terrible candidate and Obama did make his Pennsylvania “Bittergate” comments which probably cost him a lot of votes in this region.
However, 34 points seems… unlikely.
But again, as Weigel is right to note, NEPA is what we really want to be watching here.
The Trump campaign has smartly declined to dissect this poll too much and engage in too much arguing about it. Their pushback is a bit “meh” for me, but to be fair, they want to spend their time attacking Biden, not engaging in number-crunching over a poll whose results will probably be overtaken by some other poll in a matter of days.
Where the Trump campaign is right:
They’re saying the polls were wrong in 2016 (very much true with regard to a bunch of 2016 state-level polls).
Per Trump re-election campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh, “A lot of people know of Joe Biden but not very many know about Joe Biden” (also true: People know Biden’s name, but they don’t know his record, and while he bleats on about being “Scranton Joe,” he hasn’t lived in Scranton for about 100 years now).
Again, per Murtaugh, “This has been an unusual campaign and there are still more than four months to go and that is plenty of time to define an opponent” (and… true! Four months is an eternity in politics).
But I’m sure the campaign will keep hammering away at this in an effort to make it true.
If those NEPA numbers are wrong, and there’s good reason to believe they are, Trump does – as Weigel notes – still have a pretty viable path in Pennsylvania, even with attrition among suburban voters and Allegheny folks.
Pennsylvania ain’t over til it’s over… and right now, as bad as this polling looks on spec, there’s good reason to think it is very far from over.