Regarding the DEM.VP intrade markets, we can now take a look and see how they performed. Of interest: market efficiency, their prediction accuracy, and reaction to Biden’s headfake (8/19).Here are some graphs and commentary written in the language of gibber.
Clearly there was a reaction to Biden’s headfake. His price had been surging and suddenly dropped for 2 days. Kaine and Bayh’s prices both increased after Biden said he was ‘not the guy’ (What a Dbag!) It might be more significant that it didn’t decrease more as it would indicate some traders knew Biden was the pick, or possibly just knew Biden is moronic enough to pointlessly deny something that would be announced in two days. It also may have been decreasing slowly due to market inefficiency. (Including some traders not getting word of Biden’s statement.)
Here’s a trade by trade graph starting hours before the announcement.Interesting how it jumped to 90 and then fell back to 70 before climbing to where its at. Were some people just cashing in causing the price to drop? Did some traders know for sure but the speculators pushed the price back down? Did news reports give mixed signals?
Interestingly, unlike the other two candidates, Kaine’s largest day of trading volume occurred on the 21st. Amid the swirl of speculation over the past week is was difficult to determine which new information mattered and I think I discounted some quote from Kaine on the 21st, but it was obviously a market mover.
Here we see a clear Volume trend, where the market started rather inefficient and the volume grew everyday until the selection was announced.
This is the last 48 hours of Bayh trading (ending at 3pm 8/23) ie. it gives insight into just what took place within that frenzied volume of trading shown in the final two days of the first graph. It wasn’t all straight down. Specifically, something happened around 6pm on Friday that seems to have convinced a lot of people that Bayh was the pick. That topped out at 50 before the price basically nose-dived to 0. (When exactly did official word of the pick go out? Was it Friday evening as this graph would suggest? What time did news break of the Obama-Bayh yard sign?)
According to The Page, Obama, whoever he chose to tell, the four finalists, and whoever they choose to tell, knew about the selection as of 8/21. (But I will not apologize for calling him a Dbag.)