Regarding the DEM.VP intrade markets, we can now take a look and see how they performed. Of interest: market efficiency, their prediction accuracy, and reaction to Biden’s headfake (8/19).Here are some graphs and commentary written in the language of gibber.
Here we see a clear Volume trend, where the market started rather inefficient and the volume grew everyday until the selection was announced.
According to The Page, Obama, whoever he chose to tell, the four finalists, and whoever they choose to tell, knew about the selection as of 8/21. (But I will not apologize for calling him a Dbag.)