I’m not so sure.
40 seats is a heavy lift even in a good political environment. The Dems did not pick up 40 in 2006 or 2008 – two very good years. To be sure, there is a LOT of low-hanging fruit out there, but it is a big mistake to do a victory lap about winning the Nov elections in March. I sense that is what a lot of Republicans and many conservative activists are doing right now, and it isn’t helping.
To win 40 seats will require a LOT of hard work by a lot of people. It means we remain focused from now through election day. It means getting the right candidates in the right races in all 435 congressional districts. It means out-organizing the left. It means raising millions and millions of dollars – enough to be at least on par with Dems.
I also think we ought to step back and realize that 7 months is an eternity in politics. A lot can and will change. It’s unlikely but possible that the economy could rebound by then. It’s possible that the Dems will have an effective messaging campaign that will blunt the political damage done by Obamacare. It’s possible that nasty primaries could result in battered candidates for the general election. One should also remember that while polls have fallen for the Democrat party, it’s not like Republicans are gaining. Fav/unfav ratings for the GOP still remain low.
We can make guesses about what the election would look like if it were held today, but it’s not held today. You shouldn’t trust anyone who tells you as a matter of fact that the Republicans will win the House. For the sake of our Republic, the GOP NEEDS to win the House, but it is not etched in stone, and will take a ton of hard work and a little luck for it to happen. Stay focused and don’t get cocky.