Far too soon for DOOMWATCH, but one year in you don’t want to see this kind of reaction if you’re a Democrat:
Short version: both Democratic and Republican voters are happier with Congress these days, and Independents are not. The uptick for the first two is easy enough to explain: both side’s partisans are happy that their respective sides are slugging it out. The question is, which side are the folks in the middle supporting?
The new 2009 low in approval from independents comes at a time when a majority of registered independents say they would likely vote Republican rather than Democratic, 52% to 30%, if elections for Congress were held today. With Republicans and Democrats exhibiting the same degree of loyalty to their parties’ candidates, independents’ preference for Republicans gives that party a 48% to 44% edge over Democrats among registered voters overall.
…it’s not really a question, is it? Although I imagine that a lot of people are going to be doing their best to suggest that it is.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.