Currently the GOP has 24 Governor seats, and the Ds have 26 seats. In a real big wave election, after the November 2010 election the GOP could have 37 seats and the Ds could have 13. This is a huger wave than anything possible in US House and US Senate outcomes. Now admittedly part of the reason for this is that we are so low in House and Senate numbers compared to Governor seats. Let me break it down for you using the most current Rasmussen projections, and grouping states into easily understood categories.

I will start with the bad news, to me, the base number of states that will have a Governor with a D after their name.

7 D states that do not elect a Governor in 2010

Delaware
Kentucky
Missouri
Montana
North Carolina
Washington
West Virginia

4 states the Ds reelect Governor in 2010

Arkansas
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New York

2 states that flip from R to D

Connecticutt
Hawaii

So those listed groups of the D’s base number total 13. Now for the good news, to me, the base number of states that will have a Governor with an R after their name.

6 R states that do not elect a Governor in 2010

Indiana
Louisiana
Mississippi
New Jersey
North Dakota
Virginia

10 states the Rs reelect Governor in 2010

Alabama Robert Bentley
Alaska
Arizona
Idaho Butch Otter
Nebraska Dave Heineman
Nevada Brian Sandoval
South Carolina Nikki Haley
South Dakota Dennis Daugaard
Texas Rick Perry
Utah Gary Herbert

8 states that flip from D to R

Iowa Terry Branstad
Kansas Sam Brownback
Maine Paul LePage
Michigan Rick Snyder
Oklahoma Mary Fallin
Pennsylvania Tom Corbett
Tennessee Bill Haslam
Wyoming

So those listed groups of the R’s base total 24 which is 11 more than the D’s base. We now get to the most exciting part for me, and this is 13 states that are listed as toss-ups. How many of these states an R wins in will decide just how large of a wave election this year is going to be. If we win them all we will have 37 out of 50 Governors with an R after their name. Here is the list.

7 Toss-up D States

Colorado Dan Maes
Illinois Bill Brady
Maryland
New Mexico Susana Martinez
Ohio John Kasich
Oregon Chris Dudley
Wisconsin

6 Toss-up R States

California Meg Whitman
Florida
Georgia Nathan Deal
Minnesota Tom Emmer
Rhode Island
Vermont Brian Dubie

Now I did not write this diary to try to be the first one to say who is going to win in each of these states. Nobody knows anything for certain until after all of the votes have been counted. I am just writing this to try to gin up some enthusiasm for supporting and voting for the Governor seat. I think in some ways the person we send to occupy this seat is much more important than who we send to sit on the Hill in Washington, DC. We have redistricting taking place with the 2010 census, and we have a lot of state governments that are in a lot of debt. I know in the 13 states I am going to list that in some cases the candidate chosen as the GOP candidate for the general election is not your choice. You need to let that go, and get fired up to put the GOP candidate that was chosen into the Governor’s chair. Do not fool yourself into thinking there is not a dime’s worth of difference between Ds and Rs locally, and only in Washington, DC do they go bad. The truth is that there is a basic difference between those who promise a big government with superb services, and those that promise a smaller government with services that will suffice. For example. about a year ago I moved to Texas, and one of the first things one needs to get done is to get a driver’s license. Now I came from a place where everything is done for you on the spot, and you leave with your new plastic driver’s license card. It is superb service. Here in Texas they do not have the office scanners and machinery to have everything done for you on the spot. You get a temporary paper instead of the plastic driver’s license card, and you are told that your card will be processed in Austin and mailed to you. This is service that suffices, and I love paying less taxes. Governor’s of states matter a lot. Please pay attention to this.

Cross-posted at The Minority Report

Tags: 2010 governors