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House Democrats are blindly burning their careers — There will be no reconciliation if Obamacare passes. Hint: Lindsey Graham (Whip count update)

The latest evidence of what is up.  Now we see how Obama is getting Gutierrez’s vote and the CHC.  This talk coming from Lindsey Graham lately whining that if the Democrats go with reconciliation, it will kill immigration reform is all making sense now.  Obama assured Gutierrez that they will deal with the immigration issue in the future.  Now Obama must have promised some urgency to Gutierrez regarding this issue otherwise Gutierrez would have walked away saying “That’s not good enough.”  I believe this is the main reason why reconciliation will not happen.  If it does, the GOP will shut down the Senate for months.  I haven’t been following the conservative radios all week much as I have been wired to the internet looking for the latest news.  Somebody probably like Rush has already mentioned this but it is becoming apparent what the next move is.  READ MY LIPS:  THERE WILL BE NO RECONCILIATION IF THE HOUSE “PASSES” OBAMACARE.  THE FRESHMAN AND PEEL OFF BLUE DOG DEMOCRATS HAVE NO IDEA HOW BADLY THEY ARE BEING PLAYED BY OBAMA AND PELOSI. 

I think the Democrats route is straight through the Slaughter Solution.  Why?  Initially, I thought that Pelosi wouldn’t be crazy enough to go this route as the losses for the Democratic Party are going to be cataclysmic come November if they go this route.  I believe now they will.  Why?  MAIN REASON:  DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMEN DON’T WANT TO HAVE A DIRECT VOTE ON THEIR VOTING RECORDS AND DON’T WANT TO BE SCREWED BY THE SENATE.  THEY ARE GOING TO BE, BANK ON IT.  THE SENATE WILL NOT PROCEED WITH RECONCILIATION.  IF THE SENATE PROCEEDS WITH RECONCILIATION, GUTIERREZ AND THE HISPANIC CAUCUS WILL REALIZE THEY WERE SCREWED TO GET THEIR VOTE.  THEY WILL HAVE TO EXPLAIN TO THEIR CONSTITUENCIES WHY THEY SUPPORTED SUCH A MEASURE THAT HAD NO HEALTHCARE FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.  Next, today’s roll call vote on the GOP resolution to eliminate the Slaughter Solution.  Jason Altmire voting to not vote out the Slaughter Solution just flat out puzzled me after all the statements.  Pelosi using Altmire to play Fox News?  NAWWWWWWWWW…….YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAH.  Heck, the whole thing puzzled me.  Then I thought, that’s what Pelosi is trying to do.  She doesn’t want the constituents figuring out whose side of the fence that these congressmen are on.  Second, if Pelosi goes the route of the Slaughter Solution, these Democrats who voted to take the Slaughter solution out today will pretty much certainly vote no on the the final vote.  Those who voted yea create a confusing picture.  It could have been that Stupak and Pelosi might have been playing cat and mouse with Pelosi trying to identify wholly who are the Stupak dozen.  Silly me.  She has to know.  It’s totally up in the air as far as I can tell.  The final possibility could be that there are some congressmen in that vote who might try to pull the old John Kerry “I was for it before I was against it.” in their re-election campaigns this fall.  Michael Barone is of the same opinion that this creates a confusing picture but he is quite optimistic.  Constituents don’t know who to really focus on but then again, it probably doesn’t matter because the Dem congressmen are for the most part catching all the hell about this to a degree I cannot fathom.  Finally, don’t forget Pelosi loves to use tactics.  The Slaughter Solution could very well be one.  If she is able to win “passage” with a direct vote on the Senate bill, she will likely try to legitimize the victory because she played according to the Constitution.  Her hope would be that the Democrats would look more saintly in the voters’ eyes.  The voters will say “Hey, maybe the Democrats are really honorable.”  (Stifling laughter.)  Sorry, I am trying to have fun here. 

I have noticed some Eeyores on other blogs because they are letting the conventional wisdom that once a vote is scheduled, it means its all done.  Guys, given what I have seen today it is by no means over.  It actually still looks like this has a good shot at going down.  I think it is 50/50.  Travis Childers of is now a NO.  Steven Lynch is a NO even after a 40 minute talk with Obama.  Joseph Cao is a NO though there were some worries there for a bit.  Michael Acuri is a NO.  Bart Gordon has been bought off with a likely NASA appointment.  However, if Gordon’s appointment has to go before the Senate, a GOP senator will put a hold on his nomination.  There are reports out there that John Tanner of TN who is retiring may have been offered an ambassadorship.  John Bocierri (OH-16) in a R+4 district will be holding a 10:40 AM press conference tomorrow to announce how he’ll be voting.  Sounds like he wants some of that chest puffing limelight that Dennis Kucinich got.  I’m thinking he is going to announce that he will vote yea.  Anybody in his district, you better go to work on him real good.  Here is the target list again:

Jason Altmire (PA-4), Brian Baird (WA-3), John Barrow (GA-12), John Boccieri (OH-16), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Allen Boyd (FL-2), Travis Childers (MS-1), (NO) Lincoln Davis (TN-4) (NO? According to posters on other blogs, Davis’ staffers are telling the callers he will vote NO)Betsy Markey (CO-4) (YES ACCORDING TO YAHOO!)  , Jim Matheson (UT-2), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Glenn Nye (VA-2), Heath Shuler (NC-11), John Tanner (TN-8 ), Harry Teague (NM-2). Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Tom Perriello (VA-5),  John Barrow (GA-1), Sanford Bishop (GA-2), Tim Bishop (NY-1), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Bill Owens (NY-23), Tom Perriello (VA-5), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All)  (Bought with sweeteners in reconciliation bill.  He’s being played for a patsy.) Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), and Brad Ellsworth (IN-8 ), and last but not least Joseph Cao (R-LA). (NO)

I think the nos have a slight lead by about 5-8 votes.  Pelosi can make up that margin.  It’s very fluid.  There have been so many swings.  The sad part about this whole thing is that if Obamacare passes, the Blue Dog caucus will suffer the most come November.  Even though there were congressmen who voted no, they will have to pay the price for Pelosi and Obama’s ambition because all of those red, purple and even some slight to moderately leaning (remember those independents and seniors) blue district Democrats are going to pay the price of having a (D) by their name.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge wave of party switches in a short amount of time in the case if the bill is “passed”.  It is galling to see the means that Obama and Pelosi are going to.  They are destroying so many Democratic congressmen for their own ambition. 

Remember the weekend surge on Washington this weekend.  Let’s keep hammering the congressmen.

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