House target race update

Update:  WIth today’s poll in IL-17 showing Schilling up by 13 over the Democratic incumbent Phil Hare, it could be argued that there may be some other Democratic seats not listed here that could be on the radar now as well.

Before I get into this, I should let you know what the fonts mean.  These are all based on current trends.  Boldface means that the GOP is sure or has a great shot of winning the seat.  Italics mean the GOP has a 40-50% shot.  No alteration of font means less than 40% chance of winning.  I would like to make this kind of a participation type project as I know there are plenty of Redstaters that have a good gauge on what is happening in their districts around the state.  Please, PLEASE contribute any observations, input, or ideas how things are going in your neck of the woods.  139 seats are targeted for pick-up seats with an additional 12 GOP seats targeted to hold.

Alabama: 2nd (Martha Roby is a formidable challenger to Bob Bright.)

Arizona:  1st, 5th, and 7th and 8th.  The 7th is a secondary target.  D+6 district.  It is hard to imagine those congressmen holding those seats with Obama suing the state of Arizona over its highly popular immigration bill.

Arkansas:  1st, 2nd, and 4th.

California:  11th, 18th, 20th, and 47th.  I remind you that Costa and Cardoza (in 18 and 20) had their votes bought by Obama letting the water being turned on so farmers could water their crops in those districts.  Loretta Sanchez has a very tough fight on her hands but I’ll keep it blue for now.

Colorado:  3rd, 4th, and 7th.

Connecticut:  2nd, 4th, and 5th

Delaware:  At Large (Republican Mike Castle has vacated his seat and is running for Biden’s senate seat)

Florida:  2nd, 8th, 22nd, 24th and 25th.  (It is amazing that Rotheberg left out Boyd’s seat as Boyd voted for Obamacare and Boyd is in a R+6 district)

Georgia:  2nd, 8th and 12th

Hawaii:  1st (Djou has a great chance at holding this seat for the GOP come November.  This race can’t be neglected.)

Idaho:  1st

Illinois:  8th, 10th (incumbent GOP member is in a D+6 district), 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th (Shocker.  A just released Magellan poll buts the GOP challenger Schilling up by 13 over Hare in this D+3 district).  Illinois is interesting.  A lot of fluidity in those districts.

Indiana:  1st, 2nd (Donnelly voted for Obamacare), 8th and 9th (I don’t think Baron Hill will be able to defend his healthcare vote here in this R+6 district).

Iowa:  3rd

Kansas:  3rd.

Kentucky:  3rd and 6th.

Louisiana:  2nd (GOP Hold.  Cao might have a hard time holding but any seat is worth defending)and 3rd

Maine:  1st and 2nd.

Maryland:  1st, 2nd, and 3rd

Massachusetts:  2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 10th

Michigan:  1st, 6th (GOP needs to hold), 7th, 9th, 11th (GOP needs to hold).

Minnesota:  1st, 3rd (GOP needs to hold), 7th.

Mississippi:  1st, 4th

Missouri:  3rd, 4th

Nevada: 3rd

New Mexico:  1st and 2nd

New Hampshire: 1st and 2nd

New Jersey: 2nd (GOP hold), 3rd, and 12th, and 13th.

New York:  1st, 2nd, 4th, 9th, 13th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 27th, 29th.

North Carolina:  2nd, 7th, 8th, 11th, and 13th.

North Dakota: At large

Ohio:  1st, 5th, 6th, 9th (Marcy Kaptur), 10th, 12th (GOP hold), 15, 16th (John Boccieri), and 18th.

Oklahoma: 2nd

Oregon:  4th and 5th

Pennsylvania: 3rd, 4th, 6th (GOP hold), 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 17th.

Rhode Island:  2nd

South Carolina:  5th

South Dakota: At large (Herseth-Sandlin is the (D) incumbent)

Tennessee:  4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th

Texas: 15th, 17th, 20th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, 29th.

Utah: 2nd

Virginia: 2nd, 5th, 9th, and 11th.

Washington:  2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 8th (GOP hold)

West Virginia:  1st, 3rd

Wisconsin:  1st (GOP hold), 3rd, 7th, and 8th.

If these numbers hold then the GOP would pick up 59 60 seats  (Thanks to skepticalmi for pointing out me missing MI-1) 32 additional seats have a decent chance of winning.  So it could be argued that for the time being, 92 seats could flip if the GOP were able to win all of the decent chance seats.  One thing I have not mentioned.  I wouldn’t see a few of those seats that have a less than 40% chance of winning flip to the GOP.  No Democratic incumbent is safe this election cycle.

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