The state of the election picture for the Senate

Well, it looks as the primary dust has settled and it is very apparent that the GOP establishment has lost their ability to be the kingmakers and the people have taken back their rightful power….for the time being.

First things first.  Of course, the Delaware Senate race.  The voters of Delaware made the right choice and already it is reaping some huge national strategic advantages for the GOP.  Christine O’Donnell’s victory and subsequent good results with her post-primary election debate with Coons, her fundraising rocket  that is still soaring (due in part to the NRSC, the RNC, Karl Rove and indirectly Lisa Murkowski all throwing temper tantrums in their unique ways), and some good decisions to stay away from Meet the Press, Face the Nation, and Fox News Sunday so she can focus locally on her ground activities in Delaware all indicate that she is conducting herself as a first-rate candidate.

The huge strategic advantages this has created?

Well, for one, the MSM and some clueless talk show hosts (that means you Bill Maher) are desperate to get her for some interviews so they can throw her gotcha questions at her.  There are also some in the MSM, Chris Matthews among the most notable who have admired O’Donnell’s performance thus far.  Sure, the MSM has a new public enemy #1 in Christine O’Donnell.  In doing so, they have withdrawn their attention from the other Senate races around the country because a Sarah Palin endorsed candidate should not win in a predominantly blue state.  O’Donnell stands a very, very good chance of winning.  That fundraising money will allow her to build up a substantial ground game as what she probably is doing right now in cancelling her national show appearances.  On top of that, she’ll be able to highlight Chris Coons’ political Marxist past on how he nearly bankrupted New Castle county among the most notable bullets she will have through the air waves.   What has to terrify the Dems most is she has a financial advantage over Coons’ and will be able to even run ads in the neighboring Philadelphia media markets as well.  She can more than adequately compete with her message and draw comparisons with Coons.  The Dems cannot afford to lose either Delaware or Connecticut where Linda McMahon is surging as well. McMahon has been running ads and I have to figure she has a good ground game in place as well.  The Dems are going to have to allocate funds from their dwindling financial advantage to protect these two states.

If Delaware or Connecticut fall to the GOP, the Senate will certainly flip.

Wisconsin, Illinois, and West Virginia

These are firewall seats for the Dems.  To blunt the momentum of the big red wave that will build as it can be projected with reasonable certainty based on polling that Rubio (GOP hold) will win in Florida, Toomey in Pennsylvania, Portman in Ohio, Coats in Indiana, Boozman in Arkansas, Hoeven in South Dakota, and Blunt (GOP Hold) will win in Missouri.  If Democratic voters out in the Mountain West and Pacific (Colorado, Nevada, California, Washington and even Oregon) see what is happening in the East and the Midwest, they are going to become even more depressed than what they already are.  This could turn those races out west into substantial GOP victories.  In Illinois, Mark Kirk holds an enormous financial advantage over the bank mobster and Bill Brady has a huge lead over Pat Quinn that will generate large coattails for Kirk.  Another important fact is that Kirk should get seated immediately upon winning.  The Dems might try to delay his seating as they did Scott Brown but to do so would risk even more of a post-election stink with the voters.  In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson has jumped out to a 7 point lead via Rasmussen over Russ Finegold.  This is likely a post-primary bounce and could very likely hold as people there are still getting familiar with Ron Johnson.  According to reports up there, Wisconsin is going deep red this election cycle as Scott Walker looks to win the gubernatorial race handily and the GOP looks to gain control of the state legislatures and pick up three congressional seats. In West Virginia, John Raese is doing a phenomenal job of highlighting Joe Manchin’s pro cap-and-trade statements and his friendliness with President Obama.  He has a lot of momentum, is self-funded very well, and is a seasoned campaigner.  What looked like a sure thing for Manchin looks to now be only a 6 point lead with Raese having a lot of momentum.

If the big red wave is to be blunted, I would venture that the Dems must hold 2 of 3 of these states.  If two of these three fall, Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, Michael Bennett and Patty Murray are likely gone as well.  Murray might just survive but it will be by the skin of her teeth. If all three fall, Murray is most assuredly gone.

In regards to the big picture, of course Harry Reid is public enemy number 1.  However, Ken Buck needs some help in competing with Michael Bennett on the airwaves.  You can donate to help out Buck here.  It looks like Portman, Blunt, Coats and Rubio have their elections pretty much in hand.   Toomey has just about put his race away.  The other races are still quite competitive.  More on this and on the House in the near future.

On to November!!

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