Quinnipiac this morning hits a new level in loaded agenda polling
These new poll releases by Quinnipiac that came out would indicate it is all but over for Mitt Romney. But, look deeper:
Florida — 36D/27R/33I (D+9)
Ohio — 35D/26R/35I (D+9)
Pennsylvania — 39D/28R/27I (D+11)
Guys, there is no way that the electorate is going to break down like that on election night. The national tracking polls of Rasmussen and Gallup would show Obama with a double digit lead nationally if these polls from Quinnipiac were accurate. In case you don’t know, Quinnipiac conducts polls for CBS News and the New York Times. That should tell you something. These agenda pollsters are starting to get taken to task on their bologna. Here was Quinnipiac’s director’s response to their methodology:
But the real loser in this debate was Doug Schwartz, director of Quinnipiac Polling. In addition to childishly dismissing the complaints as sour grapes by Republicans, Schwartz indicts himself in explaining the controversy:
Schwartz, whose institute conducts polls in battleground states for CBS News and The New York Times, asserts that pollsters who weight according to party identification could miss the sorts of important shifts in the electorate that could be determinative.
“A good example for why pollsters shouldn’t weight by party ID is if you look at the 2008 presidential election and compared it to the 2004 presidential election, there was a 7-point change in the party ID gap,” Schwartz said. Democrats and Republicans represented equal portions of the 2004 electorate, according to exit polls. But, in 2008, the percentage of the electorate identifying as Democrats increased by 2 percentage points, to 39 percent, while Republicans dropped 5 points, to 32 percent.
Asked specifically about GOP complaints regarding the party-ID composition of public surveys, Schwartz said: “They’re the ones trailing in our swing-state polls.” “There are more people who want to identify with the Democratic Party right now than the Republican Party,” he added.
I guess if you concentrate your polling in urban areas like Cleveland or Philadelphia, you would get poll results like this.
By the way, in 2008 the electorate turnout was D+3 in Florida, D+8 in Ohio, and D+7 in Pennsylvania. In other words, Quinnipiac is expecting the turnout of the electorate to be better for Obama in 2012 than in 2008, significantly in some states. These polls would verify if the GOP just decided to sit at home this election. I am sure this is exactly what the Obama campaign would like. These pollsters are forgetting that aside from there being a huge registration upsurge in 2008, a lot of GOP voters stayed home in 2008 as well. Do you plan on staying home on Election Night this November?
Update: (Hat tip to the people over at Hedgehog Report) This morning, Rasmussen has the race tied at 46-46 and Romney is up 48-46 when leaners are factored in. This indicates movement to Romney in Rasmussen’s three day tracking poll. Gallup will probably show the same as well today.