The last, dying gasp of the MSM and agenda pollsters to depress GOP turnout, current and election day dirty tricks to keep in mind. By the way, strong independent voter movement to Romney in the last 48 hours.
IF THE GOP BASE TURNS OUT LIKE IT DID IN NUMBERS AS GOOD OR GREATER THAN 2004, MITT ROMNEY WINS DECISIVELY
(A hat tip has to go to all the conservative blogs and conservatives in the Twittersphere for all their up to date information on the ground)
It certainly looks like the usual suspects are doing everything in their power to demoralize the GOP base. I’m seeing lots of trolls invade various conservative blogs, seeing pollsters with the exception of Rasmussen shift their party ID (projection of turnout) heavily leftward. It’s even more funny in some of the state polls. In yesterday’s Reuter’s tracking poll of key swing states yesterday. Today, the latest comes from Pew Research poll showing Obama up 3, 48-45, whom has gone from an R+5 party ID turnout a couple of months back, to D+1 last month, to D+4. The only reason as I can think of is if there was some sort of huge, cataclysmic shift in enthusiasm from the GOP to the Democrats. Think of the world just getting turned upside down on its head. Have you seen anything to indicate that? By the looks of the early voting figures and the campaign rallies recently, there isn’t even a remote hint of that happening. As Jay Cost eloquently stated:
The movement in the Pew poll over the last month has been a net of 8 points toward Obama. Essentially all due to a shift from R+5 to D+4.
A few interesting internals I found to be of interest. It states Obama is holding 95% of Democrats which seems very unlikely and that the majority of movement in the polls regionally came from the Northeast (probably to the fleeting photo op goose that Obama got in the polls this week) and the West. Obama actually lost ground in the Midwest and is still doing horribly in the South.
Even Rasmussen has been using (in my humble opinion) a conservative, worst-case projection of a three point advantage in partisan ID to the Democrats for his currently polling which looks to be 39D/36R/25. However, his Partisan ID for the month of September showed to be a 2.6 advantage toward the GOP. This suggests to Scott Rasmussen that he should use an electorate of R+2 like 35D/37R/28I. Okay, that probably is quite a bit of a wishing well. However, this partisan ID index has nailed the turnout of the electorate within 1.5 points in the last two elections. I’m not going to argue with Scott Rasmussen. He’s a professional so I’ll trust his judgment. Gallup’s projection of the turnout of the electorate stands at 35D/36R/29I for voters survey from October 1st onward. When independent voters were pushed as cited in the linked article, it became 49R-46D. The takeaway from these projections is that there has been a noticeable shift to the right with both of these established pollsters.
So what do you do if you’re in the Obama loving media and an agenda pollster? You put out polls that use a 2008 turnout model or project
that Democrats will be 40%+ of the electorate.
Actually, this shouldn’t surprise you. They have been doing it for months now. If you watched ABC’s This Week, that roundtable was really putting on the full court press to George Will to say that the election is over and Obama will win decisively. Without sounding like a conspiracy theorist, what I am seeing in the conservative blogosphere and in the MSM seems to be too many coincidental psychological tactics to depress GOP enthusiasm. The only way the agenda pollsters turnout models can come in the realm of being close is if the GOP base doesn’t show up. Keep that in mind. It’s up to us to show up en masse with enthusiasm, excitement, with our friends and neighbors, to vote Mitt Romney into the Oval Office.
BEING MINDFUL OF ELECTION DAY DIRTY TRICKS
- In 2000, we saw the MSM call Florida for Gore early, though voting had not finished in the panhandle and Bush was holding a 51-47 lead in reported returns at the time the call was made. The MSM cited “bad data”. Depression of GOP vote tactic?
- In 2004, we saw exit polls showing Kerry running away with it in Ohio and elsewhere by oversampling women voters. How many GOP voters stayed home when they saw or heard the news? Depression of GOP vote tactic?
- In 2008, none of these tricks were necessary as it became apparent after the financial markets meltdown and McCain’s campaign suspension that McCain was going to get blown out by Obama.
In 2012, we will probably see a combination of what we saw in 2004. Media reporting exit polls that Obama is running away with it, early reported returns out of Ohio to show a huge Obama lead (The Ohio Secretary of State’s office will count all the early/pre-Election Day vote first, then they will count the Election Day vote afterwards), making statements like “Looks like we might have to make a call soon because it doesn’t look good for Romney”, saying the race is too close to call in deep red states (Not calling Georgia or South Carolina for Bush in 2004, saying it was too close, brings back fond memories), calling deep blue states quickly to show a big early EV lead on the board for Obama and create the perception that Obama is running away with it, etc. Are you getting the picture? How do you counter this?
Go vote, regardless of what the media is saying, vote STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN, and have an antacid on hand when you start to watch the election returns come in
Or in Adrian Gray’s advice:
@adrian_gray First wave of exit polls in 2004: PA (Bush -19), OH (-4), FL (-4). First round in 2000: PA (+0.2), OH (+10), FL (-3). You’ve been warned.
There were some reports out of North Carolina and a few other states showing that when a voter made a touch screen selection of “Mitt Romney”, “Barack Obama” wound up being the selection and it had to be corrected. The machines had to be re-calibrated. However, there is an easy remedy for that: VOTE STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN Regardless if a GOP Senate candidate mangled an answer in an interview or debate and you didn’t like it, Obamacare cannot be overturned unless the GOP takes the Senate if Mitt Romney wins the Presidency. We need a net gain of 3 Senate seats. Voting straight Republican takes the “calibration” error away and ensures one vote closer to GOP Senate majority and a Romney presidency. If “Straight Democrat” pops up in the touch screen, STOP, wave over a GOP polling station observer who should be on site and a poll worker, show them the screen, and it will be corrected.
Other Election Day/Post-Election Day Controversy
I think we may see this in Ohio which is Democrats creating controversies like having someone who has/claims to have early voted, go to a voting station wanting to vote, the poll worker states that the voter is already on record as having voted, the voter insists on voting, gets a provisional ballot, and then the voter goes to the media yelling “VOTER SUPPRESSION!” Don’t believe me? Do a Google search, entering the keyword “Voter suppression in Ohio” and watch what comes up. Lawyers get involved, cries of outrage, disenfranchisement, etc., Florida 2000 all over again. You get the picture. The reality? It looks like the votes are just not going to be there for Obama in Ohio.
Strong Independent Voter Movement to Romney in the last 48 hours
Pat Caddell stated today on Fox News that he is seeing strong momentum toward Romney. In today’s Rasmussen national poll which is a 3 day tracking poll shows that Romney’s lead among independents has gone up from 3 on Friday, to 5 yesterday, to 9 today. Agenda pollsters are also picking this up as well, though their polls are still heavily weighted toward Democrats. Romney is on an upward trend heading into Election Day which is perfect. This is evidenced by Pennsylvania and Michigan now being tied. If Michigan and Pennsylvania are tied, Ohio should firmly be in the Romney column, at least according to the prevailing conventional wisdom. Bottom line, do your duty.
Don’t lose heart when you see all these tactics taking place now and through Election Day. The only way you can let that happen to you is if you let our opponent take it away from you.