With only three days to go until the election,some very surprising numbers are still coming in from California. They are not matching the polls at all. The most respected polling organization in California is the Field Poll. They have been here for sixty-one years. Their latest poll according to mercurynews.com,the website of the largest newspaper in the Silicon Valley,has Barack Obama simply obliterating John McCain by 22 points,55% to 33%. As a result of this,you would think that all the newspapers in California would be trumpeting the results of early voting.
Last week I was able to get some results from the newspapers,but now they have all stopped reporting the results. I decided to start calling the registrar of voters in various cities in the state. Yesterday I received the first of these and Monday I hope to get some more. I received an eight page breakdown of early voting results in Santa Barbara County from the Registrar of Voters there. This is a county of 421,000 people. A county where a Republican has NOT won the vote for President since 1988. A county that has a 34.2% Latino population and an additional 22.79% of “other” races. There is a lot of wealth among whites in this county,but as you can see there is a substantial minority population. This should be Obama country. Yet here are the results of actual voting as of 10/30 in Santa Barbara county.
57,659 people have voted thus far. Of these 24,788 are Democrats and 22,293 are Republican,9033 are independents and the other 1500 represent various parties. Yes,yes,yes,I know. We don’t know how these people voted,but unless all Republicans have lost their mind at the same time,let’s assume that most people will vote for the party they are registered with. If independent voters break slightly for McCain,this is essentially a dead even race in that county.
We have been told that Latinos would vote overwhelmingly for Obama. I wrote in a diary a couple of weeks ago that I doubted that,since the Latino radio stations are spewing vitriolic comments about Obama. Why isn’t McCain getting swamped here as the Field Poll would predict? After all,a Republican presidential candidate has not won here in 20 years and yet McCain is close in the vote.It just goes to show that the polls are WAY off. Don’t let them intimidate you that it’s over. Get out there and vote for McCain. It is not over.
Monday I hope to post results from at least two large cities. I am waiting for results from the registrar of voters in those cities.