As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, every Friday WPA compiles the key numbers from the week and provides analysis of key trends. This week’s analysis can be viewed in full at http://www.wparesearch.com/2012-elections/wpas-weekly-political-brief-31/.
In addition to the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes:
- Partisan sampling in recent national polls
- The Presidential Ballot among independents
- A comparison of tax rates and earned income
- The presidential ballot among middle class voters
- Americans trust in the media
The key take aways for this week:
- Recent national poling demonstrates the importance of partisan sampling (pg. 11-13).
- Many national polls have used a voter model based on the 2008 General Election, rather than 2004 or an average of the two elections, resulting in high partisan turnout for Democrats.
- The same polls shows that among Independents, Romney and Obama are essentially tied.
- An annual Gallup poll of trust in the media showed that only 40% of Americans have a “Great Deal” (8%) or “Fair Amount” (32%) of trust in the media (pg. 14).
- 40% is the lowest the number has been since Gallup first asked the question in 1972.
- A recent Politico-GWU poll found that Mitt Romney has a 14-point lead among middle class voters (pg. 15).
- The majority of this important voting bloc has a positive opinion of Romney and Ryan, a negative opinion of Obama, and more than 60% feel the nation is on the wrong track.
- The media frequently discussed Mitt Romney’s taxes this week (pg. 16).
- An analysis of economic groups shows that tax rates compared to income earned are roughly equivalent.