Apologies to all for no projection updates in the last two weeks. Between WALL*E, painting, and a few family shenanigans I’ve been a tad busy…Currently Obama still leads McCain (as he did in my previous months projections), but his national lead is shrinking, and subsequently that tightening is reflecting in the state polls. Virginia, where Obama was holding a surprising 4-5 pt lead, still remains (for the first time since 64) in the Democrats camp, but barely- the current average is just Obama +.5, and any poll showing a McCain lead will be enough to tip that back over.The Mountain west has been surprising- particularly the Dakotas and Montana, which have been polling rather favorably for Obama. On the other hand, Colorado is becoming more competitive. At this point in May, Colorado was averaging about 5.5pts for Barack. His lead has shrunk down to just 3, well within the margin of error.Expect more polls from Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Michigan in the next week. Id expect Q to release its FPO swing poll by Friday…that will give us a better picture of what McCain is facing in the more northerly swing states…