Rasmussen is out with a new poll showing JD Hayworth gaining on John McCain. McCain’s 22 point lead in January has now shrunk to just five points, 47%-42%, of likely Republican primary voters. Perhaps more important, this is the second Rasmussen poll in the past month showing McCain below the 50% threshold – dangerous territory for an incumbent.

If you ask me, McCain is self-destructing and has reached the end of the road. It is not his year. Look no further than his bizarre claim to Newsweek Magazine that he “never considered [himself] a maverick.” As they say in the military – whiskey, tango, foxtrot.

Even though the tea party organizations have decided to stay neutral, it is clear that the rank-and-file tea partiers will turn out for Hayworth. If Hayworth can keep working the grassroots and raise a little money, he can will win this race.