A new online poll from Reuters/Ipsos out of Florida has some good news/bad news (depending entirely on who you are rooting for): Donald Trump is down four points among Likely Voters (42-38), while Marco Rubio is up two points (40-38).

Now, of course, the usual caveats: It’s an online poll, it’s a state poll, it’s Reuters/Ipsos, etc. However, take a look at the date Caputo specifically mentions: The Independent vote is in Trump’s favor here. So, without them, you’re looking at a bigger gap here. This is especially true in the head-to-head race between Trump and Hillary, in which Donald Trump is down just two points (42-40) but has a 24-point lead over Hillary among Independent Likely Voters (45-21).

Losing in that situation is absurdly hard, and it’s like Trump said “CHALLENGE ACCEPTED” just to prove us all wrong.

If this is a trend that repeats (it is thus far an outlier), then we can absolutely verify that Trump is dead in the water here. You are winning independents and still losing overall? Good Lord, this is bad news for him.

But, hey. Marco Rubio is winning (he is also leading among independents). So that’s pretty cool.