As always, this is going to be a highly subjective take: my thoughts on each race after the fold. Bottom line: some shifts up, some shifts down, I took out Massachusetts and New Jersey because, really, well, some states are more likely than others.

Mark Begich
Serious Risk

Mark Pryor
Serious Risk

Mark Udall
Some Risk

Some Risk

Mary Landrieu
Serious Risk

Some Risk

Al Franken
Low Risk

Serious Risk

New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen

New Mexico
Tom Udall
Low Risk

North Carolina
Kay Hagan
Serious Risk

Jeff Merkley
Some Risk

South Dakota
Serious Risk

Mark Warner
Some Risk

West Virginia
Serious Risk

(Previous ranking here)

In order:

  • Alaska. Good GOP opposition candidates, and Begich is doing his best to distance himself from Barack Obama. His best bet right now would be a party switch.
  • Arkansas. Tom Cotton is going to give Mark Pryor a fight… or, increasingly, it’s look like it’s going to be the other way around.
  • Colorado. I will probably upgrade this to Serious Risk in the next assessment: Mark Udall is starting to slip. But the Democrats will fight for Colorado, especially since the governorship is also up for grabs.
  • Iowa. On the one hand, it’s open; on the other hand, no clear front-runner yet on the GOP side. Call it a wash.
  • Louisiana. Mary Landreiu has still picked a bad election cycle to be a member of a party that hates oil production. Also, Obamacare.
  • Michigan. I’m bumping this one up to Some Risk: Terri Lynn Land is looking like a good get.
  • Minnesota. I am regretfully knocking this one down further to Low Risk: I may think that Al Franken has a glass jaw, but I’m not hearing much to suggest that somebody willing to run for MN-SEN agrees with me. I reserve the right to change this one in a hurry, though.
  • Montana. Max Baucus becoming Ambassador to China will probably not actually help his duly designated successor, because Obamacare.
  • New Hampshire. I switched this to Depends: we’re all waiting to see what Scott Brown does. If he jumps in (and I expect him to), the race goes to halfway between Some and Serious Risk.
  • New Mexico. Tom Udall is staying quiet as a church mouse, and that’s the smart option for him, dang his eyes.
  • North Carolina. They should have given Kay Hagan Baucus’s ambassadorship. Her polling isn’t all that.
  • Oregon. This is my dark horse bump-up to Some Risk: Oregon has been an Obamacare DISASTER, and if Dr. Monica Wehby is the GOP candidate Jeff Merkley is going to have problems.
  • South Dakota. I am only keeping this down at Serious Risk because the highest category is DOOM, and I will not pronounce DOOM until I am sure. But the Democrats have kind of given up, there.
  • Virginia. …Tough call. Mark Warner has a good opponent in Ed Gillespie, on paper – but will Ed get the VA GOP all pulling in the same direction? Some say yes, some say no, I say keep watching the skies…
  • West Virginia. See South Dakota, with the added point that the Democrats picked a heck of a time to suddenly hate coal production.

As to Republican seats… ehh. I know that Mitch McConnell is behind in the polls in Kentucky, but I also know that McConnell’s team have not Unleashed The Kraken yet. Still, the polls are the polls; check again in four months. As for Georgia… that path for victory for the Democrats still feels kind of theoretical. Michelle Nunn should have run in 2008.

Moe Lane (crosspost)