Even without a third party candidate mucking up the poll, the Democrat just can’t pull ahead.
So yes, Dudley still isn’t ahead by much (I show by this poll a 37% chance Kitzhaber is ahead), but I’m sure Oregon Republicans will take the 47-44 lead (MoE 4.5), which unlike the SUSA poll requires no successful third party candidate to engineer that lead.
What may be the key stat though isn’t in the poll. It’s from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Oregon unemployment is at 10.5%, putting the state worse off than 42 others in that statistic. And John Kitzhaber is a member of the party that holds the offices of Governor of Oregon, President of the Oregon Senate, Speaker of the Oregon House, and of course controls the White House and the US Congress. He may be taking party blame for the economy.