Gallup retreats and I claim victory

Pelosi Boehner

From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention.

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It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the poll has in just two weeks shown a remarkable 9 point swing toward the GOP.

Where in the week I complained, Democrats were ahead 48-44, projecting only a tiny Republican gain in November and continued control of the chamber by Democrats, now the poll shows Republicans ahead 48-43, which projects a much different result:

Category D R
2008 two party split 56 44
Gallup two party split July 19 53 47
Gallup two party split August 2 47 53

It’s a complete reversal. The latest results swings the electorate from D+12 to R+6, and that net 18 point swing projects to a 51 seat Republican gain from 2008 in the Swingometer, and a 229-206 Republican majority in the House.

Now don’t try it again, Gallup. We’re watching. The Internet is funny that way.

P.S. Rasmussen has a new generic out, too. It never made a radical turn toward the Democrats, and now has Republicans up 46-38. That translates to a 55-45 two party split, a 22 point swing from 2008, and a 60 seat Republican gain.

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