The Real Clear Politics 2016 nomination poll chart appears to be showing that Donald Trump has peaked, and is on the way down.

But if you dig past the pretty picture, it’s not clear that’s the case.


It turns out we’ve only had one poll since August 2, and that was one out the 9th and the 10th by Rasmussen. It shows Trump at 17, followed by Bush and Rubio at 10, then Walker and Fiorina at 9. The previous four polls (all [done for the]* debate) had him doing much better: Fox News had him at 26, as did Monmouth University, while Bloomberg had him at 21 and CBS News showed 24. 17 would be Trump’s lowest showing in 3 weeks.

So don’t be so sure Trump has actually peaked. The pollsters appear to be taking a break, so only when they wake up will we actually know if Trump is crashing back to Earth.

* A previous version of this post including an error where I misread the dates and thought they came right after, not right before, the debate.