While Ted Cruz and John Kasich are beginning to work together to stop Donald Trump, but their new deal only affects future states.
This week, with 172 delegates on the line, John Kasich’s presence in the race sadly serves only as massive spoiler to help Donald Trump, and the polls confirm it.
Of the states that vote tomorrow, only Rhode Island and Connecticut are proportional contests, meaning only there does John Kasich not help Donald Trump in some way. The rest are Winner Take All statewide (Delaware) or by Congressional District (Maryland, Pennsylvania).
Let’s start with Pennsylvania. A few firms have polled the state over the last week and a half. Apart from the troll, herding firm PPP, all of them have Trump under 50, in a range from 40 to 49. What that means is in a lot of districts, the #NeverTrump movement would have a good chance to rally and take districts from Trump, if only Kasich weren’t splitting the vote from Cruz.
It’s basic math.
Then there’s Maryland. Even PPP can’t manufacture a Trump majority there. We’ve had few polls of Maryland, thanks to that awful tendency of public pollsters to do clickbait national polls, rather than do the hard work of putting together state polls with regional breakdowns. But despite that, Trump below 50 is a trend. He has a hard time putting together a majority outside of his home state.
Finally Delaware is the one spot where Kasich isn’t doing any harm, according to the single poll we’ve had. Delaware is also the smallest delegate haul this week (16), so that’s not really saying much.
I’m glad John Kasich came around to make a deal with the hated Ted Cruz. I just hope it’s not too late.