A new pollster jumps into the ring this cycle, and the results in the Alabama Senate runoff are definitely stranger than we’ve seen so far.
Sen. Luther Strange and his wife Melissa thank supporters after forcing a runoff against former Chief Justice Roy Moore, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2017, in Homewood, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
Of course by Stranger, I mean relatively favorable to incumbent Senator Luther Strange. The other polling for him has been pretty terrible, despite him making it into the runoff against Roy Moore. JMC Analytics though has been looking fairly anti-incumbent across the board, so it’s possible there’s a skew there.
So it’s interesting to see that Harper Polling has the result much closer than JMC does, showing Roy Moore only barely ahead 47-45 over Luther Strange
That said, Harper Polling does some framing as well, setting up the race as being one about Donald Trump, or about other things. That may help the Trump-endorsed Strange, who won Trump people 50-40.. On the flip side, the most conservative voters supported Moore, 59-33 in the case of self-described Very Conservative voters and 62-28 for those who described themselves as having Conservative Values.
Strange needs Trump, but Trump may not be enough, based on this polling.