trump iowa

Though there is a wide variety of opinions among RedState contributors on Donald Trump, we are pretty well united on one thing: Trump is only possible because the GOP has been such a steaming pile of #FAIL in dealing with every possible challenge. The only thing it has done passably well is kowtow to Barack Obama while pretending to fight him tooth and nail.

Erick posted earlier today on how we may be witnessing the beginning of the end for the GOP:

Yes, exactly. The Republican Party is dying because the GOP in DC has gone corporate and K Street. They attack any Republicans who dare hold them to their promises. They’ve gone to war against Heritage Action for America, Club For Growth, the Madison Project, etc. They’ve blackballed any political consultant who does work for outsiders.

The situation seems to be much worse that the GOP establishment realizes. A new poll of likely GOP caucus goers spells chaos:

A Monmouth University poll of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers found the billionaire real estate developer and retired pediatric neurosurgeon each with 23% support. Coming in third with 10%: Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, who also has never held public office.

[mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] is in 4th place at 9%. Simply put, this means the F*** the GOP Establishment candidate pulls in 65% of the vote.

This is not happening in a vacuum. Virtually identical results were obtained from a strawpoll at a GOP grassroots gathering in Nashville. A poll in South Carolina found Trump supported by 30% of the voters with Trump+Carson+Cruz+Fiorina taking 56%.

To make things worse, Chris Cilizza, writing in the Washington Post, demonstrates just how wrong the assessment is by some that Trump is the creature of racists and various other nutjobs.

Donald Trump leads the Republican 2016 field in a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics of Iowa voters. But that’s not the real story.

The real story is contained deeper in the poll. In May, when the Register last polled, 27 percent of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers viewed Trump favorably while 63 percent regarded him unfavorably. In the new poll, which was released Saturday night, Trump’s favorable number is at 61 percent and his unfavorable at 35 percent.

Numbers just don’t reverse themselves like that in the space of a few months (or ever). Especially when the politician in question is totally known by the electorate. Once you are both totally known and broadly disliked — as Trump was in May both in Iowa and everywhere else — you are doomed. One hundred times out of one hundred.

That’s why I was SO certain of Trump’s inability to matter at all in the 2016 race when he, somewhat stunningly, decided to enter it 70-odd days ago. In the almost 20 years — gulp — I have spent following politics closer than close, I’ve never seen anything like the total reversal in how Trump is perceived by Republican voters. It is, quite literally, unprecedented.

Taken together, these polls shows the GOP establishment has two real problems. First, nearly two thirds of the base (and I am using Iowa GOP caucus goers as a proxy for the GOP base) have had it with anyone associated with the GOP establishment or leadership. Second, at least in Iowa, Trump is not fading. The more people see him the more favorable their opinion.

Even if Trump does fade, his voters are not going to Jeb Bush or John Kasich. The same applies to Carson and Fiorina and Cruz voters. And if any of the latter three fall out before Trump, the odds of him winning the nomination grow exponentially.