Some recent history:

As my colleagues, Neil Stevens and Caleb Howe, have posted, Donald Trump is getting his ass handed to him in Wisconsin. Cruz has a seven point lead, based on averaging the polls. If the history of this campaign season is a guide, the vote will not be that close. Trump over-polled and Cruz under-polled in most of the previous contests.

The lead is only seven because the fake-polling company, PPP, has a poll showing Cruz up by one point. When you are drowning, you will grasp at a straw and that is exactly what Trump has done:

Trump had better get used to crowing about coming in second place. Or even third. Because that is his future.