Via DonkeyHotey and Flickr Creative Commons 23935109153_081794d442_o

Caricature by DonkeyHotey flic.kr/p/Ct4G4K

The Wyoming GOP holds its convention tomorrow and, just like the Colorado GOP convention that Donald Trump spent all week whinging about, Donald Trump’s campaign will have no one there.

Sarah Palin will not be appearing as a surrogate for Donald Trump at the Wyoming Republican Party convention this weekend, the state’s GOP announced on Thursday.

According to a release on the Republican Party of Wyoming’s website, the Trump campaign said she would not be attending. It provided no explanation for the last-minute cancellation.

“The Donald Trump campaign has informed the Wyoming Republican Party that Sarah Palin, the scheduled surrogate speaker for the presidential candidate, will not be attending the State GOP Convention,” the release says. “Former Governor Palin was scheduled to speak to the convention delegates Saturday morning between 10-11am along with presidential candidate Ted Cruz and John Kasich surrogate Governor Butch Otter of Idaho.”

Wyoming has 29 delegates and, to the Trump campaign, they simply are not worth the effort of contesting. Of course, sending some one as unstable and erratic as Palin might have been even more injurious than simply not showing up.

Donald Trump and his brain trust, to the extent that Paul Manafort can be said to constitute a brain trust, seem to believe a) they will run the table in New York, b) they will take a great majority of votes in the series of Northeast/Mid Atlantic primaries, and c) they will win California. There is absolutely no evidence to indicate that any of these assumptions are true. As my colleague, Neil Stevens, pointed out yesterday, the first New York poll that looked a voting by congressional districts indicates that Trump will not break 50% in a significant number of congressional districts. Trump needs 85, minimum, delegates from New York to hope to win on the first ballot at the convention. Fivethirtyeight.com estimates he will take 71. Likewise, California is very much in play.

Cruz is playing the smart game that realizes that every single delegate matters this year. Trump doesn’t seemed to have had that “eureka” moment yet.