On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a series of twelve conditions Iran would have to meet in order to establish normalized relations with the United States. Now Iran has responded with their own list of five demands of Germany, France, and Great Britain, as a condition for Iran staying in the JCPOA.
Europeans must bring resolution to [the United Nations Security Council] protesting U.S. violation of UNSCR 2231 [the UN resolution endorsing the Iran nuclear deal].
Iran’s missiles and regional presence absolutely may not be discussed with European leaders.
Europeans [must] clearly oppose all American sanctions against Iran.
If the Americans try to interfere with Iran’s oil sales, the Europeans must guarantee the purchase of oil from Iran.
Europe must guarantee Iranian banking connections.
None of those conditions are all that likely to materialize. The odds of the Europeans introducing a Security Council resolution condemning the US approach zero. France’s Emanuel Macron has made an issue of Iran’s ballistic missiles and he’s unlikely to back away from that. The Europeans are making noises about avoiding sanctions but noise is all it is. Already major European firms are leaving Iran because their choice is doing business with Iran or with the US. The idea that Britain, France, and Germany will agree to buy whatever amount of oil that Iran produces is ludicrous. And Europe can’t guarantee Iran banking access because banks have the same problems as other companies. If they are sanctioned by the US they are out of business.
The interesting part of this is going to be watching the degree to which Merkel’s Germany will degrade and demean itself in order to continue to do business with a terrorist regime. I suspect they’ll do things that Stormy Daniels has never even thought of.