Now, it is getting real!!

Since the United States and China have been implementing tariffs on each other via trade, one of the partners in the former N.A.F.T.A. agreement has snuck into first place with the U.S.in swapping goods. You would think it would be our friends to the north, Canada, but it is our pals to the south.

Mexico.

According to Axios

Data has consistently shown that trade between the U.S. and China is slowing down significantly, so much so that Mexico recently supplanted China (and Canada) as the top U.S. trading partner.

The bottom line: Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Torsten Slok points out that the U.S. has clearly shifted one-to-one its imports away from China and toward the rest of the world.

Investors expect things to work themselves out, but economists and market analysts at major banks are starting to worry more publicly that the trade war isn’t ending anytime soon.

This is great for Mexico and the United States. What does this mean though for the overall U.S. economy that was trading BILLIONS more with China?

While there have many many smaller signs that a rift was growing larger between the U.S and China this is the first clear sign that it is occurring and fast. We have already heard of the losses with the farm community and with China threatening to retaliate with more tariffs on U.S. good on June 1st this could sink the economy in the 2nd quarter going forward.

While I think most people understand the motives here with Trump on trade if the economy starts to slow down that will change quickly. The robust growth we have been experiencing since late 2017 is the one constant positive that this administration has been able to talk about with all the other noise going on around them.

If the economy goes south so does the Presidents chances for reelection.

Just get the damn deal done.

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