OK, let’s walk through this. Mind you, I’ve already declared this bill dead anyway.

• Back in November of 2009, the House of Representatives passed a health care rationing bill, 220-215. For the purposes of this discussion, we will note four Congressman ‘yea’ votes: Abercrombie of Hawaii; Cao (R) of Louisiana; Murtha of Pennsylvania; and Wexler of Florida.
• In December of 2009, the Senate passes their version of the bill. It lacks the ‘Stupak Amendment,’ which is the only reason why Cao voted for the House version.
• In January of 2010, Wexler’s retirement becomes official. The effective vote is now 219-215.
• Also in January of 2010, Cao declares that he will not vote for the Senate version of the bill.
• In February of 2010, Murtha dies suddenly. The effective vote is now 218-215.

With me so far? Well, here are the two problems that the Democrats are now facing:

• If the final version of the bill does not include the Stupak Amendment, Cao will not vote for it (and neither will Stupak), thus making the final vote 217-216 against and the bill not passing. If the final version of the bill does include the Stupak Amendment, then every Democratic Senator is going to inundated with screaming progressives. How could they resolve this? By junking the Stupak amendment and making a vulnerable Democrat flip-flop on his previous vote. In a year when it’s a bad idea to be a Democratic incumbent anyway.
• The other problem is Abercrombie. As Philip Klein and Ed Morrissey both noted, he’s supposed to be out the door at the end of the month in order to run for Governor of Hawaii. He had also promised to stick around to get health care rationing passed. The conditions of the special election to replace him - not to mention, the problems in delaying his formal gubernatorial run - are sufficiently complicated that breaking his word on the latter will probably cause him less problems in the long term. So, after February 28th, that puts the regular vote down to 217-215 for, and 217-215 against if Stupak is not passed. In that case, the Democrats need to flip two vulnerable Democrats (if the vote’s a tie, they lose).

Shorter Moe Lane: eight years of karma just caught up with the Democratic party, and it’s charging interest.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

This is troubling.

A 1993 federal law forces about 116,000 voters with unknown addresses to stay on the Kansas voter list. That means almost 7 percent of Kansas voters have addresses where mail cannot be delivered. Kansas has about 1.7 million registered voters.

The number of voters with questionable addresses was as high as 174,000 in May 2008, and is down from November 2007 when it was about 154,000. The numbers vary over time and are reduced when lists are purged after federal elections.

There’s a Senate seat at play in Kansas this year, along with the gubernatorial race.

I know, I know…he had his run and he didn’t really give us much during the second half of his second term to set up an electoral edge for Republicans going in to the ‘08 cycle. He made some things, in fact, worse for us in several fairly big ways…but still-you gotta love seeing the Cowboy in Chief rub it in Bambi and the left’s face just a little… this story out of Wyoming, Minnesota (via Minnesota Public Radio-note-picture comes from the same link):

It was late at night and I wasn’t sure I’d seen the billboard correctly as I whizzed past it on I-35 in Wyoming last week on the way back from Wrenshall. But an e-mailer confirms I saw what I thought I saw.

Who knows if it’s a fake, or a hoax, or the figment of some poor guy’s imagination living up in Minnesota suffering from a little late-night brain freeze. And-who cares? THIS is damn funny stuff.

Consider this an open thread…

Given all the recent talk about Sarah Palin, and specifically whether she’d be a better President than the incumbent, we give you the Slurm® Keys to the Presidency, brought to you by new Slurm® Energy Drink. Keep the energy to party all night, Slurms MacKenzie™ Style!

Character

Under the stress of the job, the personal failings of “the man behind the desk” will come out. It’s no contest on this one. We’ve got a mother whose worst failings were to use the wrong email account and to stand up to a wife beater, versus the cokehead Community Organizer.

Score: Wholesome Mom 1, Chicago Roughhouser 0

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The steady drumbeat for Marco Rubio keeps going on and on. Today he is picking up the endorsement of Congressman Mike Pence.

Congressman Pence said, “I am proud to endorse Marco Rubio for the United States Senate. Marco Rubio’s faith in free markets, limited government and traditional moral values make him the right choice for Republicans in this race. At a time when the American people long for leaders of principle, Marco Rubio will be a courageous check and balance on the current Washington establishment.

“With Washington spending money we don’t have and empowering the government at the expense of individual freedom, we need more leaders like Marco Rubio who are willing to take a stand for the common sense and common values of the American people.”

His full endorsement press release is below the fold. How long before someone starts a Draft Pence-Rubio 2012 website?

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The important practical question following the death today of Congressman John Murtha is what happens to the House seat he held on behalf of the people of Pennsylvania’s 12th District. The good news, so far as I can tell from early reports, is that Ed Rendell won’t get to appoint an interim replacement, but rather the voters will have to choose one in a special election. As the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza reports:

According to state law, the governor has ten days once the vacancy is officially declared to decide on the date for the special election, which can come no sooner than 60 days following that proclamation.

That likely means the special election will be held on May 18, which is the date already set for federal primaries around the state. (Special elections costs the state huge sums of money and it’s likely that Gov. Ed Rendell will choose to go with an already established election day to save some cash.)

This is yet another critical election; recall that Obamacare passed the House with a 3-vote margin of victory, and any effort to run it back through the House with the watered-down Senate langauge on abortion will cost at least two of those votes (Bart Stupak and Joseph Cao), while now two others (Robert Wexler and Murtha) have left the House since the vote was cast. Mike Memoli at RCP notes the continuing flux with special elections already coming up to replace Wexler and the yet-to-resign Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii:

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These people never stop generating the laughs.

There are thirty inches of snow in Washington, DC. Here in Macon, Georgia, an area global warming scientists have long predicted would become a desert, we are 24 inches into a rain surplus in the past 365 calendar days.

You know what this all means right? We need a new federal agency to “study and report on the changing climate.”

Commerce Secretary Gary Locke and Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced NOAA will set up the new Climate Service to operate in tandem with NOAA’s National Weather Service and National Ocean Service.

“Whether we like it or not, climate change represents a real threat,” Locke said Monday at a news conference.

Lubchenco added, “Climate change is real, it’s happening now.” She said climate information is vital to the wind power industry, coastal community planning, fishermen and fishery managers, farmers and public health officials.

Please tell me, when is the climate not changing? As we orbit the sun orbiting the center of the Milky Way Galaxy our climate will, as it has done since God first said “Let there be light”, continue to change.

There is nothing new under the sun. This is just the 21st century equivalent of the 5000 year old sun worshipping religions.

It should be no surprise that an organization like the New York Times, which is a consistent money loser these day, is in favor of a government take over of the student loan industry. A group of people who have shown no ability to run a successful business tend to hate success. But their reasons for doing so are not just nonsense, but total distortions of reality.

The Times writes, “The direct loans would not be handled by the government, but through colleges and universities, just as Pell grants are now.” That’s nonsense. If a student who has student loans financed via, say, Chase as I do and does not like Chase’s service, the student can go to Wells Fargo. In all cases the colleges and universities handle most of the dealings, but it is the backside of the equation the Times chooses to ignore.

The Times continues, “Some lenders say the new system would lead to more student defaults, but contracts between the government and loan-servicing companies clearly state that the companies will be evaluated partly on how successful they are at preventing defaults.” Actually, there are greater defaults under the federal direct loan program than the private loan program. In fact, I was advised at a former job to just stop paying my direct loan because nothing would happen, unlike with my privately handled loans. I still kept up my payments, but I worked with a number of people who didn’t.

I’ve also heard from friends in the credit reporting industry that credit companies routinely ignore unpaid federal direct student loans because of how the U.S. Department of Education treats students in default, i.e. they do nothing.

The Times concludes with “By redirecting the savings into a variety of federal programs aimed at needy students — including the Pell grant scholarship program — Congress would be putting the money to good use.”

Really? The Times does not define “needy” students. What about middle class students whose parents can’t afford the costs of the loan? And what about the escalating costs of college attendance? As we’ve noted before, the Democrats’ plan also calls for total debt forgiveness after 20 years and after ten years if the student goes to work for the government.

Schools would have no incentive to decrease academic costs because no matter how much a student paid — and their repayment could be no more than 10% of their income — the loan will be forgiven.

The Democrats’ plan makes no economic or financial sense. The New York Times is forced to grossly distort everything about it to make it sound the slightest bit reasonable.

Jed Babbin has the top story at Human Events today.

Yes, George W. Bush spent too much and proved redundantly that the term “big government conservative” is an oxymoron. And yes, when Bush left office our economy was in trouble.  But how long will Obama claim that the only way for our economy to recover is to continue a spending spree that will leave us unable to recover from government debt?

Apparently, forever.  In his State of the Union speech, Obama said, “One year ago, I took office amid two wars, an economy rocked by a severe recession, a financial system on the verge of collapse, and a government deeply in debt.  Experts from across the political spectrum warned that if we did not act, we might face a second depression.  So we acted — immediately and aggressively.  And one year later, the worst of the storm has passed.” 

But it hasn’t.  Unemployment is still nearly 10% and — according to Reagan administration economist Arthur Laffer — the “recovery” we are in is a false one.  With the Bush tax cuts about to expire, and both capital gains taxes and estate taxes to rise next year, we’re headed into a far worse economic crisis than we suffered last year.  But that doesn’t deter the president one bit.

That picture above is a Reuters picture from this Politico column back in September. Remember that? Democrats returned to Washington after being battered all of August over the health care plans. Barack Obama decided to rebuild their energy and so he spoke at a joint session of Congress to talk health care.

Throughout the speech he said he wanted to hear about GOP counter-proposals and repeatedly accused them of having none. Every time, congressional Republicans held up their proposals so he could see they did have counter-proposals.

Nonetheless, from that speech in September until today, Barack Obama has insisted the GOP had no proposals. He insisted the Democrats work behind closed doors and shut out the GOP.

Now, because the House Republicans gave the President a chance to improve his image at their retreat, Obama wants to sit down with Republicans at his guest house in front of TV cameras and discuss the proposals the GOP has had all along that he pretends he knew nothing about.

If Barack Obama cannot be genuine and interested in Republican ideas when the cameras are turned off, there is absolutely no way he can be genuine and sincere with the cameras turned on.

The GOP is often referred to as the stupid party. Let’s pray they aren’t stupid enough to sit down with a President who has for six months dismissed them as having no ideas. Barack Obama says he wants a bipartisan approach to health care now. Well, there is bipartisan support for scrapping the current proposals and starting over.

Unless Barack Obama says they should scrap the present plans and start over, the GOP should not entertain his invitation to use a gaggle of Republicans to rehabilitate our socialist President.

The job done by Focus on the Family and the Tebows with their much-publicized Super Bowl advertisement was nothing short of masterful. In fact, I’m not sure that word describes the level of mastery Focus on the Family showed with their domination of the pro-abortion left through last night’s ad and the public relations battles leading up to it.

To fully understand what a massive PWNing of the Left this was, it’s necessary to briefly look back at the last couple weeks of hype and debate over this ad. When it was reported that Tim Tebow (who, despite being a dirty, jeanshorts-wearing Florida Gator, is a model citizen and upstanding individual) was appearing in a Focus on the Family commercial with his mother which was being aired for the purpose of encouraging people to Choose Life, the Leftists in the media (a redundancy, I know) and in the political sphere went into a frenzy.

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Via Instapundit, comes the latest slap in the face to Libertarians-for-Obama by the Obama administration. Slashdot:

“US government policy is that photos produced by federal employees as part of their job responsibilities are not subject to copyright in the US. But Kathy Gill writes that after originally putting official White House photos in the public domain, since January the Obama White House has been asserting that no one but ‘news organizations’ can use its Flickr photos taken by the official White House photographer, who is a US government employee…”

You mean, like this?

Original here. Relevant language on the Flickr account:

This official White House photograph is being made available only for publication by news organizations and/or for personal use printing by the subject(s) of the photograph. The photograph may not be manipulated in any way and may not be used in commercial or political materials, advertisements, emails, products, promotions that in any way suggests approval or endorsement of the President, the First Family, or the White House.

A shame whoever wrote that didn’t read this (linked to by the White House Flickr account itself).

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…so people will understand that I’m about as interested as David Freddoso in being overly nice in pointing out his past bloviating. My back isn’t actually killing me, right now, but that’s only because I was being very, very careful about removing all that anemic winter from the car.  I’m going to be forty in a couple of months; I don’t bounce back from straining myself over anemic winters like I used to.

Three observations about our marvelous new technological paradigm:

1. Everything in print gets recorded these days. Everything.
2. Nothing ever goes away. Ever.
3. The only thing that people are patient about when it comes to online matters is in waiting for just the right moment to demonstrate that someone is an idiot.

I would join David in suggesting that RFK Jr get out of the weather prediction/doomsaying business, only I can’t for the life of me think of anything else that he’d be any less incompetent at.  Ditch digging?  He could learn that on the job.

Moe Lane

PS: Just to reinforce the scorn: the plural of anecdote is not data; I am not obligated to accept your religious beliefs as being scientifically valid; and this is why political dynasties are a bad idea.

Enjoy your morning.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

This weekend, at the National Tea Party Convention, Joseph Farrah addressed the crowd and claimed that the search for Bambi’s birth certificate is a valid arm of conservative activism. Below is my response.

While the constitutional issue is there still and could still be tested, the truth of it is … it doesn’t matter electorally. The voters don’t give a whit about that, they just want to take out some justice in the voting booth. We have to beat the left on issues not technicalities and until we beat them on issues they will control the dialog. The people are awake and the crapweasels in Washington are about to get the rug pulled out from underneath them. I believe that it’s going to be a tsunami not a wave.

All we need is for them to do…no no…try a few more things, and we will take back the House for sure and have an actual chance at the Senate. If not, at least a lot of good new conservatives, of varying degrees, in the Senate. Such as, Toomey, DeVore, Rubio, Williams, and possibly some outside chances like Rand Paul and JD Hayworth [I know Becker, I am positing a best case scenario, don't rain on my parade right now ]. Obama triangulated himself into a tight corner and now he has no options, at least no options that won’t expose him as a socialist-style dictator, lacking the skill of Il Duce and the commitment of Stalin of course.

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Also see Aaron’s article relating to this topic: HERE

Special thx to absentee for the idea.

The Dem-only, GOP stiff-arm that the Trillion dollar President has been treating the nation to for the last year on health care is supposed to go away in one televised meeting. After forcing the end of the only bi-partisan process in Congress and insisting that Congress go the Dem-only route — here are the 19 things the Trillion dollar President is really asking the GOP to help him do:

1) Please won’t you help us spend $2.5 trillion we don’t have?

2) Please won’t you join us in enraging the independent voters and your base?

3) Please won’t you believe that if I will agree with any of your policies, I can get Senator Reid and the Speaker to enact it?

4) Please help me take over the health care industry?

5) Please help me feel better about my repeated violations of my transparency campaign promises, hence, appearing on TV today?

6) Please help me out of this wheel-chair I’ve put myself in, after I broke my own back on health care reform?

7) Please help me appear as if I am listening to you and the American people?

8 ) Please help me force employers drop their employee health benefit and force workers into the government run health care system — er, exchange?

9) Please, please help me fund abortions with taxpayer dollars?

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RedState Morning Briefing
For February 8, 2010

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. The god Who Makes Sure We Know He is There

2. Sarah Palin: Authentic and on the Money

3. White House Counterterrorism Chief John Brennan Tries Implicating Republicans

4. Sen. Kit Bond makes Robert Gibbs cry

5. Obama Installs Democratic Activist, Fundraiser in U.S. Attorney Post

6. Daniels Led Bayh by 10 in NRSC Poll, Not Asked to Run

7. Science, not Evangelism: India quits IPCC

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I never thought I’d live to see the day. But I kept the 4 year old up well past her bed time just in case a miracle happened.

It did.

Consider this an open thread.

Governor Sarah Palin took to the stage at the National Tea Party Convention on Saturday night and hit it out of the park. She hit all the notes perfectly. She threw in some great lines. But above all else, she proved herself authentic, sincere, and in touch with conservatives and independents.

You can see the whole speech here. As Andrew Malcolm noted, she started by recognizing Ronald Reagan’s birthday, which was the day of her speech.

Governor Palin offered a full throated endorsement of the tea party movement, a movement that has seen as much hatred and scorn from the media and both political parties’ establishments as the Governor herself.

She said, “The Republican Party would be really smart to start trying to absorb as much of the Tea Party movement as possible” and also said Republicans should not be afraid of primaries.

Here’s the thing — and it is what I mentioned the other day. Sarah Palin’s history in politics is of not a reformer in general, but of a house cleaner. She has, in every job she has held, rooted out corruption and cleaned up the place.

She said in her speech that she would support candidates dedicated to personal responsibility and the free market — kind of like the candidates RedState supports. And that means there are some Republicans who might want to watch out.

From Utah to South Carolina to Florida to Indiana via Texas, Republican races just might get real interesting soon.

Echoing a point I have made repeatedly, Governor Palin says the tea party does not need a leader. But, given her ability to unite disparate tea party groups and voices, she could help solve the problem that cropped up in Illinois where all the tea party groups went for separate candidates. That would align Governor Pain with Senator Jim DeMint as the two most powerful politicians on the right.

As always, Cohen was going to stick it out to the end, right up to the moment that he decided to spend more time with the members of his family that don’t currently have restraining orders on him.

Illinois Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee Scott Lee Cohen announced Sunday evening that he is withdrawing from the race amid revelations about his personal history.

Cohen, a millionaire pawnbroker and cleaning supplies company executive who emerged the victor in last week’s primary, had been accused of holding a knife to the neck of his ex-girlfriend, a prostitute, in 2005.

It has also been revealed in recent days that Cohen had once been accused of abusing an ex-wife. Cohen has also acknowledged using steroids for a period of time.

Word is that the Democrats are trying to find a replacement - a bit of a surprise to second-place finisher Arthur Turner, but then ‘democratic Illinois Democrat’ is an oxymoron - and it is my devout hope that the questionnaire gets leaked to the press. Between this, the entire ‘avoid paying taxes’ thing, and the rumors that another major philandering scandal’s going to hit a sitting Democratic governor tomorrow, the party leadership may end up deciding that the best way to get halfway normal candidates is to raise them from birth in a big plastic bubble…

Moe Lane

PS: Jason Plummer for Lt. Governor. He doesn’t cut women.
Shoot, I was looking forward to running on that one, too.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.