It looks like Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker might have been right last month when he said would win the recall fight.

Three recent polls have found Governor Walker at 50 percent and leading Democrat Tom Barrett:

• Marquette Law School — 50% to 44%
• Public Policy Polling — 50% to 45%
• Rasmussen — 50% to 45%

According to Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin, Republicans appear to hold an advantage in likely turnout for the June 5 recall election. Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent.

Marquette poll also reports a shift in the balance of Republican and Democratic partisanship:

In January there were two percentage points more Democrats than Republicans in the poll. That rose to eight points in February but has since declined to six points in March, three points in April and now just one point in May. When independents are asked if they feel closer to a party, the balance tips to a one-point Republican advantage in the May data.

The poll also notes that the Democrat Public Policy Polling, finds a similar trend.

Retreating from the collective bargaining rights which were the initial focus of the kerfuffle between Wisconsin public workers’ unions and Governor Walker over the state’s budget, the campaign against Walker is now focused on jobs. Walker appears to be winning that battle as well.

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Today is May 17th. On this date in 1792, a group of brokers met under a buttonwood tree on what is now Wall Street and founded the New York Stock Exchange. Everybody picked a button from the tree and then they traded, and that’s how stock trading was born! Also on this date, in 1877, the first telephone switchboard-connected burglar alarm was installed by inventor Edwin T. Holmes. Under a buttonwood tree. Yeah those trees get around. Hey, everybody needs buttons. On this date in 1955, actor Bill Paxton was born. The first thing his mother said to him was “hey, it’s Bill Pullman!!” And finally, today is World Information Society Day, a day designated by the U.N. to celebrate the internet and its wide availability of cat pictures. Wait a second, I just realized … I’m on the internet. CELEBRATE ME!! Consider this an Open Thread.

Climate change denial worse than Holocaust denial? | Washington Examiner
“‘Although there was evidence available – Hitler was clear about what he wanted to do in Mein Kampf – why did people not pay attention?’ he asks, rhetorically. ‘These “deniers” might as well have been called skeptics in their day.’”

Politico Renews Attacks On Private Citizens To Protect Obama | Big Journalism
“Ace of Spades reports that Politico “reporter” Maggie Haberman has taken it upon herself to do background checks on private citizens appearing in Mitt Romney campaign ads.”

More Campus PC Insanity, MN University Creates Gender-Neutral Restrooms | Fox Nation
“The University of Minnesota-Duluth administration ceded to student Blair Moses’s demand for gender neutral bathrooms on campus after he threatened and began an extended hunger strike.”

Rangel: Obama Didn’t ‘Hug and Kiss Me Like I Wish He Would’ | PJM
“Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.), angling for his 22nd term in Congress, said today ‘that, so far, my dreams and expectations of having a president like Obama have been achieved’ — brushing off Obama’s comment two years ago that the scandal-ridden congressman should hang up his gloves.”

New Protectionism #FAIL | Liz Mair
“The Commerce Department is set to unveil new tariffs on solar technology imported from China this afternoon in a case that has the industry on tenterhooks.”

Senate Votes Down 5-Year Balanced Budget Plan by conservativerock5

maffick (MAF-ik): verb to celebrate with boisterous rejoicing and hilarious behavior.
(via Merriam-Webster.com)

When it comes to free-market fiscal policy, Republicans are always manufacturing excuses to exempt themselves from their own doctrine on numerous issues.  There are always excuses why specific industries must be recipients of government interventions.  They say that exporters cannot function without the Ex-Im Bank; farmers cannot subsist without government welfare despite record high prices; the financial markets cannot survive without bailouts.  The latest exception to free-market doctrine that is being considered in Congress is the flood insurance program.

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created in 1968 to provide insurance to those living in flood-risk areas.  Ever since the last long-term NFIP reauthorization expired, Congress has passed 17 stop-gap extensions.  Not surprisingly, the program has racked up $18 billion in debt during that tumultuous time.  The latest extension expires at the end of May.  There will be a need for another short-term extension, but Congress must not pass a long-term extension that does not contain significant reforms.

We must understand that there is an imbalance of power in the political system of any democracy in that the forces of statism have an innate advantage over the defenders of freedom. It takes but one legislative or administrative victory for statism to succeed in guiding society on an indelible path towards dependency.  We cannot perpetuate the free-market, but we can perpetuate statism by creating inveterate dependency constituencies.  Statism enjoys the inherent advantage of self-perpetuation through its own pernicious activities that engender a continued need for the government programs.

Decades’ worth of government incentives to live in flood-prone regions have enticed thousands of homeowners into purchasing houses in areas that will forever necessitate more subsidies.  80 years’ worth of farm subsidies and crop insurance have created near-immutable levels of dependency in our farming communities.  Decades’ worth of housing subsidies have created a reality in which 90% of all mortgages are backed by Fannie and Freddie.

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The New York Times reported this morning that the combined raised total for Romney and the RNC was $40.1 million in April, with Romney having $61.4 million in the bank: in comparison, Obama/the DNC raised $43.6 million. Barack Obama’s own cash on hand for April – it was $104.1 million at the end of March – and we probably won’t be told it until the Sunday deadline, or possibly a little later than that. Though, to be fair, Romney and the RNC haven’t submitted their latest fundraising reports to the FEC, either.

Also: while I give points to the NYT for mentioning that this was a significant jump from Romney’s March haul of $12.6 million, they might have kept comparing apples-to-apples and included the RNC’s March fundraising total ($13.7 million). Or noted that the Democrats’ $43.6 million number for April represents a drop from March’s $53 million. Then again, I suppose that there’s a narrative in place.

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I will admit up-front that I am far from an unbiased observer when it comes to Jonah Goldberg.  I am a fan.  And I have been lucky enough to get to know him some over the years and consider him a friend.  So feel free to factor that in to what follows.

But even with that caveat, there is a small part of me that is disappointed in his latest book The Tyranny of Clichés.  Don’t get me wrong, it is a quick, entertaining and informative book; full of useful arguments, insights and food for thought.  At its most basic it is a challenge to conservatives to fight back and not allow the left in this country to continue to make lazy, ideological loaded statements and arguments in the name of pragmatism and a fake “just the facts, ma’am” attitude.

For more on the book’s message and arguments, and on my rather subtle disappointment, keep reading.

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From the diaries by Erick . . .

In at least two counties in Montana, the home of a competitive U.S. Senate race that could tip the balance of power in the upper chamber, massive mail-in absentee ballot irregularities have been uncovered by Media Trackers Montana, a non-partisan investigative research organization with operations in five states across the country.  In Broadwater county alone, where Sen. Jon Tester received only 35 percent of the vote in the 2006 general election, up to 600 erroneous mail-in ballots have been reported. Over a dozen Billings-area voters have complained that they received incorrect ballots.  Yellowstone county officials have also reported numerous complaints from voters receiving the wrong ballot.

And to top it all off, even a sample ballot available to individual voters on the Montana Secretary of State’s website is incorrect (this particular ballot allows the voter to select a state representative in two separate districts — districts 68 and 83).  A majority of Montana voters are expected to vote by mail this November.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Ted Cruz to discuss his campaign, a response to recent attack ads, and the importance of a conservative caucus in the U.S. Senate.

We’re brought to you as always by Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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Late last evening came word that House Republicans intend to keep parts of Obamacare. Even if the United States Supreme Court throws the whole law out, House Republicans intend to resurrect portions of Obamacare. House Republicans publicly say the story is wrong. I’ve talked to several House Republicans who tell me the story is actually on the money and the Republicans now denying it are really playing at semantics.

These House Republicans tell me these denials about the accuracy of the story are equivalent to the House GOP semantically arguing it was living up to its Pledge to Nowhere requirement for $100 billion in cuts that actually amounted to something like $34 billion. Conservatives in the House of Representatives tell me explicitly to go with Politico on this and be very wary of the House GOP Leadership when it comes to repeal.

It is a sad time for the Republican Party. The base must treat its leaders as if they are Soviets — trust but verify their statements. And lately, it is harder and harder to verify their statements. The work of the Tea Party must continue or within a decade I honestly do not believe the GOP will be one political party.

In both Indiana and Nebraska, the Tea Party has continued to make gains. People have flat out rejected the establishment favorites for U.S. Senate – Dick Lugar and Jon Bruning, respectively – in favor of candidates who offer a challenge to the status quo.

Will Texans prove what they’re made of and do the same?

I love Texas. But let’s face it – the Texas congressional delegation is mediocre at best and leaves much to be desired.

Now, Texas has the chance to get it right – by sending Ted Cruz to the U.S. Senate. But will they? Maybe. But we have a lot to do and the Republican Primary in Texas is only 2 weeks from today.

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Earlier we covered Microsoft’s new Pirate Pay, which I said sounded like a DoS attack against copyright infringers. Others agree and say it may be illegal, which is true. Sure enough, Pirate Bay is under DDoS attack. Has Pirate Pay gone rogue? Cybersecurity and copyright, all in one issue.

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Many of us have taken it for granted that all Republicans would work for full repeal of Obamacare.  After all, not a single Republican voted for it.  However, it is always important to understand the reasons why politicians support or oppose a piece of legislation.

When you listen to many prominent Republicans voicing their disdain for Obamacare, you generally hear the following complaints: it raises taxes, it cuts Medicare, it contains death panels, it is 2,700 pages long – and most notably – the individual mandate.

The problem is that these are all ancillary to the crux of what is so offensive about Obamacare.  The overarching concern about Obamacare is that it harnesses the factors that have already driven up the cost of healthcare and health insurance, most prominently, the mandates and subsidies, and multiplies them to the nth degree.  The tax increases, Medicare cuts, and individual mandate are merely tools to fund those interventions.  Many Republicans never had a problem with them.  This is why they were never repulsed by Romneycare, which doesn’t contain tax hikes and Medicare cuts.  As for the individual mandate of MassCare, they contend that there is nothing wrong with a state mandate.

As such, it comes as no surprise to read these tidbits in Politico:

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Phil Bailey sat next to South Carolina State Senator Jake Knotts when Knotts called Governor Nikki Haley, then a candidate for Governor, a “raghead.”

Phil Bailey did nothing.

Phil Bailey is the Executive Director of the South Carolina Senate Democratic Caucus. It seems he is now intent on one upping Jake Knotts.

Bailey, who had no problem with Knotts’ “raghead” comment when even the First Vice Chairman of the State GOP, Patrick Haddon, was calling for Knotts’s resignation, seems determined to one up Knotts with racism.

Bailey has been on twitter referring to Nikki Haley, a Methodist of Indian descent, as the “Sikh Jesus.” Governor Haley’s parents are sikh, but she and her husband attend a Methodist Church.

Not content to do it just once, Phil Bailey did it a second time, complete with a picture of a dog.

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