h/t Steven Foley
Brown Leads by 15%which is well outside the margin of error of +/- 3.19%.
Follow me for the details...
1. Thinking about next Tuesday’s special election for US Senate. The candidates are Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. If the election were today, who would you vote for? If Scott Brown press 1, if Martha Coakley press 2. If you are undecided press 3.
1. Scott Brown 53.9%
2. Martha Coakley 38.5%
3. Undecided 7.6%
That is a 15.4% lead. And with only 7.6% undecided, that leaves Coakley with very little room to rely on winning those late undecideds as a strategy for victory.
Next, the favorabilities.
2. And do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown? If favorable press 1. If unfavorable press 2. If you are undecided press 3.
1. Favorable 60.5%
2. Unfavorable 27.5%
3. Unsure 12.1%
3. And what about Martha Coakley. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Martha Coakley? If favorable press 1. If unfavorable press 2. If your undecided press 3.
1. Favorable 38.5%
2. Unfavorable 50.5%
3. Undecided 11%
Brown and Coakley's numbers are almost the exact inverse of each other. Point Brown!
But we all know that winning the vote is about turn out turn out turn out. Right?
4. Thank you. Only a small percentage of all voters will cast a ballot in this Tuesdays special election for US Senate. How likely is it that you will actually vote in this election on January 19th? If you will definitely vote press 1. If you might or might not vote press 2. If you probably wont vote press 3.
1. Definitely will vote 71.9%
2. Might or might not vote 21.4%
3. Probably won’t vote 6.8%
And with the talk of heavy absentee ballot voting swing to Scott Brown, it certainly looks like this is shaping up to be DOOM for Coakley, and possibly by extension Health Care Deform. There were slightly more women than men polled, and independents made up 40+ percents of those polled. Over all this is a pretty revealing poll and confirms the boost in support for Scott Brown seen in the Suffulk poll released last night. The Cross Target poll nearly doubled the sample size of the Suffolk poll as well, which, in theory, makes it a bit more reliable.
We will see on Jan 19th.
Aaron B. Gardner
P.S. Not that I put any stock into Intrade, but the recent activity there is impressive as well.