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SUSA CA Senate Poll *Update for clarification*

Yes, I am still with Chuck DeVore

By: Aaron Gardner (Diary)  |  May 11th, 2010 at 01:53 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Although the big news has been that Poizner is now within striking distance of Meg Whitman in the CA Gov Republican Primary, I am going to focus on the CA Senate race poll results via SUSA.

As I pointed out here (also at my blog), and is now confirmed by SUSA, Chuck DeVore has jumped 5 points in the polls. This positive movement for Chuck DeVore is contrary to the negative movement of Campbell and Fiorina in the 18-49 demographic*, 5 and 10 point drops respectively.

This movement, both positive and negative, is a sign of the fluidity and indecision still existing in this race. This is buttressed by the 23% who are still undecided.

The Republican primary voters of CA, who identified as 62% conservative, are watching and waiting for the choice to step forward. This weekend, while this poll was being taken, I believe that leader took a large step forward.

Chuck DeVore is the proven consevative that is needed for California, from the Delta Smelt to Illegal Immigration, Chuck DeVore gets it.

The key take away for the SUSA poll of the CA Senate Republican primary is that Chuck DeVore is trending up while Campbell and Fiorina have a loss of 15 points combined.

Aaron B. Gardner

Crossposted to my blog.

* Added for clarification after posting.

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COMMENTS

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  • dforston

    If you just compare the poll SUSA took to the one they did 2 weeks ago… Campbell and DeVore are up 1 and Fiorina is down 2. Apples to apples.

  • Aaron Gardner

    Since the polls aren’t from the same firm it still isn’t a definitive corollary.

  • Aaron Gardner

    I was talking about the Capitol Weekly Poll and obviously you were talking about the last SUSA poll.

  • Section9

    Splitting the conservative vote with Carly.

    The squishtards are obviously sticking the Caspar Milquetoast.

    At this rate, Campbell will win the primary.

    If he breaks 20% in the next poll AND takes it from Campbell, you’ll make a believer out of me. However, if he’s just taking it from Fiorina, and they are simply moving the Deck Chairs around on the Titanic, then this race is over.

  • Adjoran

    That’s great if he is selling cars or appliances . . . in politics, it means basically nothing (except that younger people don’t turn out so well in midterms).

    Rick Santorum endorsed Fiorina today. It’s over. Period.

    DeVore needs to get out now and help stop Campbell.

  • SteveLA

    Section9

    All the polls are trending Cambell, and everything I am seeing is Carlie v DeVore trading voters in the inland empire area which is mostly N of San Diego and East of Orange County.

    I would also point out that the poll was done over the weekend, and you are not seeing a big movement out of the undecided which is still up there around 20 percent.

    Watch for a poll to come out showing how or to who the undecided are jumping to, probably on the effect of Palin endorsement and others coming down. I don’t have a clue how the undecided will break, but I’m hoping that it’s not to Cambell.

  • RINKER

    Too bad California doesn’t have a run-off system….

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Aaron Gardner

    Conservatives need to quit griping ans support DeVore as the conservative. That’s what needs to happen.

  • Aaron Gardner

    He notes the undecideds, which are key, but I think he puts too much weight on the Palin endorsement and ignores the debate performance, both of which happened this weekend and aren’t seen in this poll.

  • IJB
  • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

    open primaries have been a big detriment to the Republican party.

    Nothing like letting the Donks and independents pick our candidates for us is there?

  • SteveLA

    I see no reason for DeVore to get out of the race at all. I don’t think he’ll win the primary, but this talk of him getting out to stop Campbell is just plain nuts.

    I’m not a fan of Campbell, he’s wrong on so many things like the 2nd amendment, but geesh, that’s why we have primaries.

  • RINKER

    Some politicians think it makes them sound populist to endorse open primaries. It hurts the GOP for sure!

  • red_oakster

    If I could wave a wand and make DeVore the nominee, I would do it happily.

    But the fact is he is not going to win this primary, no matter how many of us red state denizens wish it so. If he stays in, he is going to finish a poor third. He has no money and the political ad wars are only beginning. And a poor third probably ends his career beyond the state legislature.

    I would like DeVore to get out because staying in the race nominates Campbell and that would be a disaster. However DeVore obviously is free to do what he wants. I would just observe that a withdrawal and endorsement of Fiorina would buy DeVore immense goodwill and frontrunner status against DiFi in 2012.

    DeVore has earned a following that could be built upon next time, if he’s

  • Aaron Gardner
  • red_oakster

    meant to say if he’s intelligent about it.

  • RINKER

    I disagree. If we have conservatives divided and a liberal wins, that is a bad thing.
    I would hope that we have a choice between liberal Republican and conservative Republican. There is disagreement whether that conservative Republican should be DeVore or Fiorina. The liberals will win the primary and we will all lose if Fiorina and DeVore both are in the race on election day next month.

  • red_oakster

    Wishing it so doesn’t make it so. As I said, it’s his choice. I simply think he’d be smart to withdraw and become the frontrunner for 2012.

  • SirGladiator

    Conservatives are ahead in the primary, the bad news is there are two of them and one liberal, so we’re losing the actual vote. No doubt if the election keeps going the way its going now DeVore has a real shot at coming from behind to finish second, but what chance does he have at first? I can’t see any, I wish I could but I can’t. Is there any consideration at all to dropping out and endorsing the other Conservative, or is it all about finishing second right now, and just giving the primary to the far left without a fight? A second place ‘victory’ isn’t what I signed up for as a DeVore supporter, Im more about beating the ultra liberal Campbell than simply pursuing a ‘surprise second’, which no doubt DeVore still has a chance at getting. If he honestly thinks he can win then by all means go for it, but if he believes what seems pretty obvious, that he has no path to victory, it seems like getting out is the only morally right thing to do, because to not do it is to ensure the far-left vs father-left matchup in November that none of us want, and which we won’t have to be faced with if we can get a Fiorina vs Campbell one on one matchup, we can still get a Conservative nominee at the end of this primary.

  • Aaron Gardner

    He is now trending up and Carly is trending down while Campbell has his his peak and is holding.

    See RCP

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Yes, we have primaries to settle disputes, which is precisely why conservatives have every reason not to split their vote and let independents foist upon us the guy who overlooks “Death to Israel” chants.

    But yeah I don’t see Chuck or Carly dropping out.

  • red_oakster

    DeVore is way behind, he has never the closed the gap in any meaningful way, and he’s not going to get close to the 35% he needs to win a 3-way race. I would be thrilled if he were closing the gap, Aaron. His views are terrific. But he isn’t and I believe that for his own good in 2012, he should withdraw-but it is his choice.

  • JSobieski

    nt

  • Aaron Gardner

    People should stop wringing their hands and calling for people to drop out and instead just let the primary run it’s course.

  • teapartypatriot

    Although I fully support devore, your assessment of the poll results reminds me of putting lipstick on a pig.

    Something dramatic needs to be done to improve devore’s numbers or he’ll just become another also-ran.

  • SteveLA

    I’m not going to put words in Erick’s mouth or anything, but did I just hear Erick on CNN put a two week clock on DeVores’ standing in the polls?

  • Leopard1996

    But if this clown Campbell does win the nomination, does that mean we support him over Boxer just to say that the GOP defeated Boxer?

  • SteveLA
  • varia

    was not Marlin Stuzman at 18% only less than a week before the primary and Hostettler at 24% (coincidentally the same number Fiorina currently has)

    if there could be such a jump for Stutzman in only a few days, imagine what can be done by Chuck in 28.

    Now my only question is, who is this Kalemkarian guy and will him and Al Ramirez have any affect or will they be like Bates Jr. and Behney in IN?

  • IJB

    I despise Campbell. Against even Feinstein, I’m not sure I could vote for him.

    But against Boxer? It’s a ‘no brainer’ – I’ll pull the lever for Campbell, even though I loathe him. I just loathe Boxer that much more!!

  • IJB

    …At least on FisCon issues, if nothing else.

    She also *comes off* much better – I’ve just started seeing her ads, and they’re good. I expect she’ll get a bump out of them.

  • pamela1631

    If I had espoused the cut and run attitude I

  • joayn

    last Sunday. I would even say she was extremely weak compared to DeVore and Campbell. They had all the facts, she had all the bloviating.

    Her repetitive “career politician” usage was the lamest considering who her BFF are.

  • IJB
  • joayn

    and I’m for Devore 100%, but my answer to your rather lame question is: of course!!!

  • joayn
  • joayn

    He purposely does not poll on weekends.

  • joayn

    Maybe their next debate will be on the Memorial Day weekend.

  • Leopard1996

    Considering that I am hearing things like Campbell does not stand with Israel and consistently criticizes Isreal vs. the Palestinians who have attacked Isreal more than Israel has attacked them. I did not mean that to be a “lame” question, sometimes a line does need to be drawn as to how liberal we are going to allow just to defeat the Dem, but in this case I can totally see the rationale that even my dead dog would be a better senator than Barbara Boxer ever would.

  • atlasintel

    shouldn’t be the one expected to bow out due to the vote splitting concept, Fiorina should. We can’t keep sacrificing our true conservatives for moderates like Fiorina and ever expect to reign in govt spending. If anything, she’s just in this race to throw the seat to Campbell, anyone should be able to see that. She talks a good game but would govern like Olympia Snowe. Furthermore, she isn’t Tea Party backed despite Palin sticking her nose in. Lastly, with Palin endorsing McCain and now his campaign’s economic advisor (Fiorina), I’m thinking twice about her.

  • callmeroy

    California becomes America’s first failed state?
    Their unemployment is at 12 percent, and government staff workers are being paid with IOUs. None other than Professor Kevin Starr, University of Southern California, State Librarian Emeritus, one of California’s greatest historians, pronounced that “We are on the verge of becoming a failed state because we can’t agree on anything.” The California Senate has been in Democratic hands since 1970, and likewise, the Assembly

  • IJB

    But it’s hardly the first – it joins NY, NJ, IL, MA and MD, at least.

  • phillyfanatic

    A good conserv like Chuck could be a good guy but could he actually beat Babs? I do know, Campbell is the worst choice voters could make to face Babs.She would love this because Tom is just a wussy carbon copy of her. So, it is either Chuck or Carly . If there were not so many liberals and brain dead minorities in Ca. who support Boxer, either one might win. But as of now, polls show that Babs is ahead of all 3 and it does seem that Carly has a better chance now. We shall see in the next few weeks if Chuck can gain real support from ….Indies, Libertarians, and any Reagan Dems left in the state. If not, he is dead in the water.