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Incontrovertible – I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means

In the latest blow to “consensus”, Dr. Ivar Giaever, a Nobel Laureate, has resigned from the American Physical Society over the group’s position on global warming. His resignation letter minces no words:

Thank you for your letter inquiring about my membership. I did not renew it because I can not live with the statement below:
“Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth’s climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.

The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring.  If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.”

In the APS it is ok to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible? The claim (how can you measure the average temperature of the whole earth for a whole year?) is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8 degree Kelvin in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me is that the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this ‘warming’ period.

That’s his emphasis, not mine.

Dr. Giaever’s resignation doesn’t come out of the blue. Fox News reports that he was one of the cosigners of the 2009 letter to President Obama, along with over 100 other scientists, dissenting against the assertion of consensus.

I wrote about the cult of consensus at RedState last year. The point of my post was that it is not only false to state that the case is closed on anthropogenic global warming, it was directly counter to the spirit of scientific inquiry to suppose that it would be, or even to suggest that consensus equals truth. In any other research field, such a claim would be considered preposterous, if not downright heretical.

The news of Dr. Giaever’s resignation comes on the heels of another blow to the notion of “incontrovertible evidence” this past July. A study published in the journal Remote Sensing (PDF) highlights several discrepancies in previously relied-upon data. From the Tuscon Citizen:

Data from NASA’s Terra satellite shows that when the climate warms, Earth’s atmosphere is apparently more efficient at releasing energy to space than models used to forecast climate change have been programmed to “believe.”

The result is climate forecasts that are warming substantially faster than the atmosphere, says Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville.

The previously unexplained differences between model-based forecasts of rapid global warming and meteorological data showing a slower rate of warming have been the source of often contentious debate and controversy for more than two decades.

“The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show,” Spencer said. “There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.”

Get that? Climate forecasts are warming “substantially faster” than the actual atmosphere. This is a significant problem for modeling.

What does this add up to? Well for one thing, the evidence that there is a global scientific consensus that man is causing catastrophic climate change, and that we have accurately mapped, modeled, and predicted it, is incontrovertibly false. As I cataloged in my post last year, there are a number of discrepancies that are yet to be addressed. And as evidenced by Dr. Giaever’s resignation, there is clearly not a consensus, not that that should matter in the first place.

We should respect Dr. Giaever for the courage to continue to ask questions, to demand rigor, to insist upon research, and above all, to stand with courage of conviction. We must all do the same. The drastic socioeconomic sacrifices the Al Gore crowd would have us endure, and the devastating fallout those sacrifices would entail, require it. Inasmuch as the greenies would have us believe that we must act NOW lest we see dire consequences, we must remain cautious, as rash actions could result in even more devastating outcomes.

There is no consensus. The evidence is not incontrovertible. Of that much, and that much alone, can we be completely certain.

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COMMENTS

  • iidvbii

    Nice Post

  • miconservative

    The ultimate arrogance of man is to believe that we now control the weather.

    • Next93

      I’m not terribly fond of that particular argument.

      Good science doesn’t simply write off a notion because it seems “arrogant”; a century ago it was arrogant to beleive that disease could be controlled by something as simple as hand-washing. Every hypothesis, no matter how outlandish it might sound, should be examined under the microscope of the scientific method. If the data supports the hypothesis, and no data can be found to counter it, then the theory is probably valid.

      The issue here is that the AGW theory has been advanced, and the data simply doesn’t support it. After spending more than a billion dollars trying to find real”incontrovertable” proof, all the alarmists can put forward is a series of scary-sounding extrapolations based on unfounded suppositions and computer models based on more unproven (and often unstated) assumptions.

      Contrast the behavior of the alarmist “consensus” claptrap to NASA’s position on the existence of water in the past on Mars; over a period of five years or so, there were at least 10 different findings that indicated the presence of water. But each of those indicators also had at least one possible alternative explanation, and NASA never went farther than to say that there was “a possibility” that water had once existed on Mars. The odds that *all* of the “alternative” explanations were valid was vanishingly small, but it was still greater than zero, and therefore it wasn’t scientifically valid to state that the existence of water on Mars was “incontrovertable”.

      It was only after one of the rovers uncovered a compound that can *only* come about in the presence of water, did NASA finally put its reputation on the line and say that there had once been water on Mars.

      And THAT is what true science looks like.

      • ajshea

        .

  • Next93

    I made a sarcastic comment about our warm summer being the product of Global Warming, and the person I was talking to immediately dropped into the typical liberal condescension mode; the assumption is that I’m some sort of neo-con zombie who niavely thinks that AGW theory is some sort of global conspiracy (even if the last half of that is true, I resent the “zombie” and “niave” assertions).

    I don’t think he was ready for the data bomb I dropped on him. It’s amazing how the look of condescension turns to panic when they realize that the zombie knows a lot more about science than they do. He didn’t really have an answer when I patiently explained to him how the carbon traders stand to make profits that eclipse the oil companies (without the annoying need to actually produce a product) as the result of any Cap and Trade legislation.

    Turns out the guy I was talking to had an art degree, had never heard of the Nuclear Winter hoax, has no idea what a feedback mechanism is, and absolutely no clue as to the relative sizes of the absorption spectra in the IR range for CO2 vs Water (and I’m pretty sure he has no idea what those things are).

    This one at least had the decency to accept the fact that I’d actually studied the issue and had come to an honest conclusion based on my understanding of the science, and wasn’t just mindlessly following my political masters. I have to give him points for that; I’ve run into people who’ve tried to tell me that my understanding of the science somehow blinds me from “seeing the big picture”.

    It’s my fevent hope that when I meet St. Peter, the fact that I haven’t (yet!) tried to strangle any of *those* types, will be taken into account.

    • etlib

      I had a similar encounter. When he didn’t know how to respond to my statements about global warming he immediately turned the topic to Darwin (I guess thinking I’d be an anti-evolutionist), “So you don’t agree with Darwin then?”

      I questioned whether Darwin’s studies, almost entirely done in the Galapagos, had any relevance to global warning and he switched to accusing me of not understanding science. When I informed him that I had a hard science degree from an unimpeachable source (UC Berkley) He got very quiet and started mumbling about why I was so skeptical if I knew science. I informed him I was skeptical BECAUSE I understood science.

      He left mumbling to himself. I may have changed a mind that day.

    • vandalii

      Occasionally one gets to bring truth to the lost. Occassionally the truth makes a difference. Need to do what you did in order for “occassionally” to happen at all. Thanks for taking the time with this poor deluded individual and for giving others of us truth-sayers hope that, now and again, truth makes a difference in someone.

  • Locked and Loaded

    the man signed on to this in support of Senator Obama’s candidacy for President.

    ————————

    An Open Letter to the American People

    This year’s presidential election is among the most significant in our nation’s history. The country urgently needs a visionary leader who can ensure the future of our traditional strengths in science and technology and who can harness those strengths to address many of our greatest problems: energy, disease, climate change, security, and economic competitiveness.

    We are convinced that Senator Barack Obama is such a leader, and we urge you to join us in supporting him.

    During the administration of George W. Bush, vital parts of our country’s scientific enterprise have been damaged by stagnant or declining federal support. The government’s scientific advisory process has been distorted by political considerations. As a result, our once dominant position in the scientific world has been shaken and our prosperity has been placed at risk. We have lost time critical for the development of new ways to provide energy, treat disease, reverse climate change, strengthen our security, and improve our economy.

    —————————–

    Seems to me he is a bit slow in shaking off this hypocrisy. Maybe he has an ulterior motive even now. He’ll probably still vote for Obama in 2012.

    • wennejunk

      Its funny; scientists I’ve known are relatively naive when it comes to humans and human behavior. They think that because they are practical, analytical and deliberate before they make a statement, that others are as well.

      In the world of people, they are constantly surprised. Only when you get into science, are real scientists skeptics until the data shows otherwise.

      As a human, he didn’t apply the scientific process to his decision on Obama. I suspect had he done so on a scientific basis, he may have come to a different conclusion.

      As a human, he can be wrong and be emotionally swung by others.

      That’s the reality.

      • edintexas

        And it appears, from the above letter (by whomever wrote it) that he signed on to a position that is logical (i.e. Democrats are more likely to spend the people’s money than Republicans). His “issue” was government spending less money on “science” and he believed (or was led to believe) that Dear Leader would spend more on science than any Republican. He’ll probably continue to vote Democrat based on his apparent primary “issue”.

        • YnotNOW

          In that, when someone becomes beholden to government largesse for their wellbeing (via Social Security, Medicare, Welfare, corporate subsidy, or just Government Grants), their moral compass is bent in order to support causes that keep the money flowing, even if it would have been morally suspect in a more objective view.

          Democrats know that if they can just get 51% of all of the country on the public dole, then they can lock in a permanent majority and keep growing government (that is, of course, until they run out of the money from the other 49%)

          sigh….

    • Next93

      There have been plenty of good scientists who were “useful idiots” for the left. Stalin knew about the Manhatten Project before Truman.

      What we’re really talking about here is a man of unyielding intellectual integrity; he might actually believe AGW is real, but he objects to the unscientific behavior of the APS. A good scientist keeps his political and religious beliefs separate from his science.

      Given the cynicism and hypocrisy of the modern progressive movement, I think its refreshing to find that there is at least one Obama supporter with a shred of intellectual honesty.

    • ihateliberals

      letter. I have to go rinse my mouth out to get the bad taste out. Any one who thinks or would have thought Obama was good for this country did not pay attention to him while he was a sneator.

  • wrightclick

    … We allow Congress to dictate when the sun rises twice a year and it has only emboldened them to believe that they can control the climate.

    “Everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it.” — attributed to Mark Twain

    I use an ancient Indian weather indicator that works perfectly. It’s a leather string tied around a small rock and hung from a small ‘teepee’ tripod. If rock wet, it raining. If rock covered in white stuff, it snowing. If rock rocking, it windy. If rock gone, it hurricane. If rock have shadow it sunny day.

  • jiminga

    that Al Gore has vastly increased his wealth with this phony “science”. Follow the money.

  • bk

    “We need to work together in a spirit of compromise for the American people, so sign my bill without asking any questions about it or making any changes to it.”

  • throwback59

    And racist. And a flat earther. And an anti-science scientist.

    • vandalii

      ;-)

  • rcastonjr

    I do find it quite amusing that man is so arrogant that he believes that somehow or another God got it wrong. That somehow he didn’t take into account man’s impact on the earth and the earth is therefore at the mercy of mankind himself. It is the height of man’s arrogance to believe that we have pulled one over on the Almighty himself. I hope God gets it right next time!

    • jeffstag

      Look at Isaiah 51:6 (quoted here from NRSV)

      Lift up your eyes to the heavens, look at the earth beneath; the heavens will vanish like smoke, the earth will wear out like a garment and its inhabitants die like flies. But my salvation will last forever, my righteousness will never fail.

      Ecological disaster is not off the table. Not that I’m making a case for global warming here, but as a believer you know that the earth is marked for destruction sooner or later and Man’s actions may play some part in God’s plan.

      • petespa

        I’m not standing for global warming either. I simply haven’t studied the issue sufficiently.

        That said, God gifted us with will and the ability to make terrible choices. To say that he wouldn’t allow us to damage our planet is, I think, to assume too much of our Creator and the plan that is always unfolding. His creation has included many a tyrant, murderers, terrible disasters and vast suffering. Certainly none of that can shake my faith – and neither would global warming, even if it were true and fully the fault of human action.

        Let’s win this on the science and leave the article of faith as the foundation of our lives, not this political argument..

  • etlib

    Scientifically illiterate journalists but also, unfortunately, many “scientists forget that models, including computer models, of the climate are hypotheses,not scientific facts or evidence. The accuracy of the models must be tested by how well they forecast the climate.

    Watch out for the many “proofs” of global warming which are actually just computer model predictions.

    • jeffstag

      What I was taught about economic theory applies here as well. The real world is a special case.

  • BigRedConservative

    As well as caloric, phlogiston and the Plum Pudding atomic structure. I don’t think a single person alive today bothers even to consider those theories. Even if you go back 50 years, our knowledge of physics has been turned on its head simply by people like Einstein and Bohr coming up quantum mechanics.

    Similarly, AGW is a possibility. It might be proved right, it might be proved wrong. But to say it’s incontrovertible is just…wrong.

  • JeffK

    Climate is complex but the facts about global warming are relatively simple.

    The Earth’s lower atmosphere and surface are warming and the most likely explanation is from the accumulation of human derived carbon dioxide. There is very little true debate about these simple facts within the scientific community.

    • Bill S

      Thanks for stopping by, Mister Global Warmist. Don’t bother coming back.

    • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

      With a hat tip to the smart guys at Powerline

      A graph of CO2 v temp over a long time: