On Tuesday, four states held their elections in the 2016 Presidential Primary: Mississippi, Michigan, Idaho, and Hawaii. Three were regular primaries, one was a caucus, and all four are assigning delegates proportionally. When Hawaii’s vote finally came in during the wee hours of the morning, we had the result: Wins for Trump and Cruz (again).
Here are the ESTIMATED breakdowns as of 3:30am Eastern. (Subject to change.)
Mississippi: Donald Trump won a whopping 47.3% of the vote, while Ted Cruz won a giant 36.3%. As a result, the expected delegate count is 25 for Donald Trump, 15 for Ted Cruz, zero for the rest.
Michigan: Donald Trump won 37.5% of the vote, Ted Cruz won 24.9%, and John Kasich won 24.3%. Cruz’s second place win was an upset. As a result, the delegate count is 23 for Trump, 17 each for Kasich and Cruz.
Idaho: Ted Cruz, in his only victory and Trump’s only loss, took a whipping 45.4% of the vote, while Donald Trump took 28.1%, and Marco Rubio in his first double digit total of the night took 15.9%. As a result, the delegate count is 20 for Ted Cruz, 12 for Donald Trump, none for the rest.
Hawaii: In somewhat of a surprise win, Donald Trump won the night’s only caucus with a big 42.4% of the vote to Ted Cruz’s 32.9%, while Marco Rubio has his second double digit state at 13.1%. As a result, the expected delegate count is 11 for Donald Trump, 7 for Ted Cruz, and 0 for Rubio. At the time of this posting, the Hawaii votes are still being counted and this is just an estimate. (H/T Phil Kerpen and Moe Lane.)
There is no question this was Trump’s night. But with tight totals and Cruz taking so many delegates, it is by no means a deciding win. Or even a decisive one. In point of fact, the net gain for Trump over Cruz is, by our estimated count, probably only around 13 delegates.
Let me say that again. THE NET GAIN OVER CRUZ FOR TRUMP IS (PROBABLY) FEWER THAN 15 DELEGATES.
That is a very minor victory in the great scheme of things. You can argue about momentum or the psychology of winning states, but when it comes to the numbers, this was not in any way a sweep or message or mandate for Donald Trump. It is, however, increasingly obvious that Marco Rubio and John Kasich are not on any path that remotely leads to victory.
This post may be updated as the final results are tallied.
UPDATE: No delegates have been awarded to Sen. Marco Rubio as a result of yesterday’s voting. Of the four candidates, only Rubio received zero delegates. 12:00 NOON